LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- The comparison was made during the press conference to announce outfielder Lance Berkman's arrival with the St. Louis Cardinals. Berkman, an aging All-Star pressed into a contender's lineup, echoed a similar hitter coming to the Cardinals late in his career: Larry Walker.
Or, as manager Tony La Russa knew him, "damage in the two hole."
The notion that Berkman could find his way into the same spot in the lineup first came up the day the Cardinals signed him. General manager John Mozeliak said it was something they discussed when looking at what Berkman's switch-hitting bat would bring to the club. It was also mentioned that Berkman in the No. 2 spot "would relieve Colby Rasmus" and shuttle him back to the middle of the order where he hit .290/.377/.539 in 285 plate appearances in the No. 5 spot and where, let's be candid, he could run a bit more.
For Monday's paper, La Russa told baseball writer Joe Strauss that he actually envisions Berkman in that spot, backing up No. 3 hitter Albert Pujols and cleanup hitter Matt Holliday. There are indications - not the least of which is Berkman's career trend - that he could give the Cardinals something at the top of the order they haven't seen since Walker was a part of the Cardinals' 100-win clubs. It goes beyond the "damage" that La Russa covets ahead of Pujols and goes to something far simpler: OBP.
Not since 2005 have the Cardinals had an OBP out of their Nos. 1 and 2 spots in the order that both ranked in the top half of the National League. That was also the season Pujols won his first MVP.
That summer, the Cardinals' second consecutive 100-win club, featured David Eckstein in the leadoff spot most often and Walker, the former All-Star and batting champ, in the No. 2 spot. Individually, Eckstein had a .364 on-base percentage that season and Walker followed with a .350 - not quite his career norm, but good enough to buoy the Cardinals' overall number there at No. 2 to .332, seventh in the NL.
Berkman, who turns 35 in February, has a career OBP of .409. That would be the most the Cardinals have had from an individual in the No. 2 since Pujols arrived in the majors. Even acknowledging that Berkman's on-base percentage has slipped - three years of less than .400 in the past four; the horror! - and his career low of .368 would rank in the top five for the Cardinals in the No. 2 spot.
The grid of OBP's from the Cardinal who has manned the leadoff spot and No. 2 in the order most, since 2002:
2010 ... No. 1 Skip Schumaker .337; No. 2 Ryan Ludwick .389
2009 ... No. 1 Skip Schumaker .369; No. 2 Colby Rasmus .333
2008 ... No. 1 Skip Schumaker .370; No. 2 Aaron Miles .390
2007 ... No. 1 David Eckstein .355; No. 2 Chris Duncan .332
2006 ... No. 1 David Eckstein .351; No. 2 Chris Duncan .368
2005 ... No. 1 David Eckstein .364; No. 2 Larry Walker .350
2004 ... No.1 Tony Womack .352; No. 2 Edgar Renteria .311
2003 ... No. 1 Fernando Vina .302; No. 2 J.D. Drew .375
2002 ... No. 1 Fernando Vina .333; No. 2 Placido Polanco .333
Those were just the players who had the most at-bats in each of those spots, glossing over the .407 OBP the Cardinals got from Ryan Ludwick in 2008 at the No. 2 spot or the .417 Walker provided in 2004 after joining the team in August for 127 at-bats at the two slot. In 2003, Bo Hart had one fewer at-bat at leadoff than Fernando Vina, and Hart posted a .330 OBP.
With their acquisitions of Ryan Theriot and Berkman in the past few weeks, the Cardinals have the opportunity to reshape the top of their order. Skip Schumaker is set to be the team's everyday second baseman after those moves, and it appears that he and Theriot will vie for the team's leadoff position. However they fit together, the Cardinals, with Berkman at the No. 2 spot, they could stack a set of OBPs they haven't seen in awhile. Consider the three options:
Skip Schumaker: career high .364 (2009)/.349 career/low .328 (2010)
Ryan Theriot: career high .387 (2008)/.348 career/low .321 (2010)
Lance Berkman: career high .450 (2004)/.409 career/low .358 (2010)
The Cardinals have to believe those career lows won't be repeated or else the reasoning for the moves falls heavily on the "good in the room" quotient, or the little known metric of Grittiness Leadership during Uniform Experience, or GLUE. An uptick in their OBP, even a modest one, gives the Cardinals the option to stack on-base percentages ahead of Pujols in ways they have only attempted to do in recent years. Look no further than the oscillating OBPs from those spots during Pujols' career when compared to their league rankings (in parentheses, because that's how I roll):
2010 ... No. 1 .306 (13th) ... No. 2 .351 (3rd)
2009 ... No. 1 .360 (3rd) ... No. 2 .316 (13th)
2008 ... No. 1 .345 (9th) ... No. 2 .371 (2nd)
2007 ... No. 1 .323 (13th) ... No. 2 .372 (2nd)
2006 ... No. 1 .335 (10th) ... No. 2 .338 (11th)
2005 ... No. 1 .368 (2nd) ... No. 2 .332 (7th)
2004 ... No. 1 .335 (8th) ... No. 2 .350 (5th)
2003 ... No. 1 .311 (14th) ... No. 2 .375 (13th)
2002 ... No. 1 .331 (7th) ... No. 2 .330 (7th)
2001 ... No. 1 .357 (3rd) ... No. 2 .333 (9th)
The goal for the Cardinals has always been to get protection behind Pujols to discourage the intentional walks and get protection ahead of Pujols so that there's no room on the bases for intentional walks. Sure, the pitching batting eighth is a gimmick and sometimes a distraction from a struggling team, but it's also designed to get three hitters ahead of Pujols without batting him cleanup.
Getting two batters ahead of him who can get on base more regularly would be a much more traditional - and successful - approach. If Berkman gets consideration for the two spot, there is that possibility, that opportunity to boxcar OBPs ahead of Pujols like they were in 2004 and 2005. One concern does shine through the above numbers. Take a look again at the three players. Look to the number furthest on the right.
That's their career low OBP.
Now, check out the number all three share.
2010.
All of their career lows came last summer.
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