TOWER GROVE - Way back in Class A ball, Ryan Theriot, a young infielder fresh from the LSU program, bolted from first base and did what he probably had to do consistently to get noticed in his career - steal second.

When Theriot came up to the plate for his next at-bat, the catcher from the opposing team tapped him to get his attention.

"Never again, papi," the catcher said.

That catcher, of course, was Yadier Molina, a rising prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals system, and now a three-time winner of the Gold Glove in the National League. Theriot said that Molina threw him out the next three times he tried to steal second in that game, and he has kept throwing him out all the way up the minor-league ladder. It's a duel that continued into the majors, Theriot described Tuesday night after his traded to the Cardinals, and it's one he's glad to leave behind as he joins Molina in the Cardinals' lineup.

Just where in the lineup - and specifically, in the field - is the question.

General manager John Mozeliak said that as of today he expects Theriot to be the team's starting shortstop ("high probability," the big chair said), but he followed that with a caveat. Theriot comes with the benefit of fielding "flexibility." He could also play second base, as he did most of the time in 2010 with the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Cardinals could create a competition at both positions, pitting Theriot against incumbents Brendan Ryan and Skip Schumaker for playing time. Mozeliak indicated Tuesday night, as detailed in this story from the morning Post-Dispatch, that they would explore dealing Ryan and that would make any discussion of Theriot's position academic.

He'll be the starting shortstop.

But should he be?

As far back as college, when Theriot was the starting shortstop for a national championship team, coaches discussed a time when Theriot would move to second base and stay there. That was his position before 2000, when freshman second baseman Mike Fontenot showed up and reshuffled the infield, moving Theriot to that more familiar shortstop position. Theriot continued to play shortstop through the Cubs' system and into the Cubs' starting lineup, manning the position for two division-champion clubs. This past year, the Cubs hastened Starlin Castro's debut and shifted Theriot to second base as a jolt to the team. It should be noted that the Cubs made it clear that even with Castro as the starter, Theriot wasn't the backup. (Coincidentally, Fontenot was.) As a Cub, Theriot was going to be a second baseman.

Per John Dewan's plus/minus and Runs Saved scores, Theriot was average to slightly above at shortstop. From 2007 to 2009, when he was the Cubs' starter, Theriot was a plus-fielder. He was a plus-5 in 2007, a plus-6 in 2008 and a plus-7 in 2009. Overall, Dewan and Baseball Info Solutions calculate that Theriot's play at shortstop saved 14 runs during those three seasons, and in each of those seasons he ranked at 12th or 13th in the majors in runs saved at shortstop.

Theriot's plus/minus plunged to minus-7 at short in 2010, and he's clearly a slip from Ryan at the position. But who wouldn't be? Ryan made up his offensive woes with his defensive play. As Bernie Miklasz detailed in his midnight-oil blog and we've discussed previously here in B-Land, Ryan led the majors with a plus-31 at shortstop this past season. In the previous two seasons, Ryan was a plus-59 overall (no one is close) and he's saved 45 runs (also a high). The better exercise is to compare Theriot's play at short against other familiar fielders, including some who were/could've been available this winter and starting with David Eckstein's three seasons as the Cardinals' starter:

David Eckstein, 2005-2007: minus-2 ...+2 ... minus-14
minus-11 total Runs Saved

J.J. Hardy, 2007-2009: +7 ... +7 ... +19
24 total Runs Saved

Stephen Drew, 2008-2010: minus-5 ... +10 ... minus-2
2 total Runs Saved

Jason Bartlett, 2008-2010: minus-1 ... +10 ... +6
12 total Runs Saved

Miguel Tejada, 2008-2010: +7 ... minus-21 ... +7
minus-9 total Runs Saved

Juan Uribe, 2005-2007: +9 ... +3 ... minus-7
4 total Runs Saved

Ryan Theriot, 2007-2009: +5 ... +6 ... +7
14 total Runs Saved

It's clear that Theriot, if able to recapture that same level at shortstop, compares favorably to the defense that the Cardinals got from Eckstein, that the White Sox got from Juan Uribe several years ago or what Stephen Drew has given the Arizona Diamondbacks this past years. That statement would likely pass the important eye test, too.

It should be noted that Theriot was a plus-5 at second base in 2010 with four Runs Saved at the position. But with all that said, let's do what the Cardinals obviously did and move past defense. In exchange for superb defense at shortstop, Theriot brings his intangibles, the better offensive track record and a respectable glove.

Offense is the trump here.

Entering this offseason, the Cardinals insisted they wanted to upgrade offensively at the middle infield. That goal will determine where Theriot plays - and why they're billing him as the starter at shortstop - as much as anything else. Pending an additional move, the Cardinals have three players into two spots. Here is the offensive tale of the tape, with each player's numbers from the past three seasons:

Theriot, 2008-2010 ... .287/.351/.347 ... .697 OPS ... 82 OPS+
63 SB, 10 HR, 238 R
WAR* 2.0 ... dWAR** minus 1.1 ... oWAR*** 3.1

Ryan, 2008-2010 ... .253/.308/.333 ... .641 OPS ... 73 OPS+
32 SB, 5 HR, 135 R
WAR* 4.6 ... dWAR** 3.5 ... oWAR*** 1.1

Schumaker, 2008-2010 ... .291/.351/.380 ... .732 OPS ... 96 OPS+
15 SB, 17 HR, 238 R
WAR* 4.0 ... dWAR** minus 0.6 ... oWAR*** 4.6

* Wins Above Replacement ...** d stands for defensive & *** o for offensive

It's that OPS+ number that offers us the greatest insight when asking the key question here: Where is Theriot the biggest offensive upgrade, enough that it compensates for the defensive exchange? OPS+ compares a players on-base-plus-slugging (OPS) to the league average, even at the position, and sets it against a scale where 100 is average. Schumaker, for example, had an 85 OPS+ at second base this past season, down from 107 OPS+ at second in 2009. Ryan was a 60 OPS+ at shortstop, and Theriot, when he played, had a 120 OPS+ at short and a 70 OPS+ at second base.

Compared against his peers, Theriot's potential offense is a more significant bump at shortstop than at second base.

This becomes clearer with the 2010 totals.

At three positions in the infield, the Cardinals had sub-par production offensively. The Cardinals are banking on David Freese pulling third base out of the abyss (check out this past entry at Bird Land about "The Curse of Scott Rolen"). Second base and shortstop are in play for that needed boost:

2B (league rank)
Cardinals ... .265 (8th)/.322 (10th)/.349 (10th) ... .671 OPS (9th)

NL Avg ... .265/.332/.386 ... .718 OPS

SS (league rank)
Cardinals ... .221 (16th)/.289 (15th)/.311 (16th) ... .600 OPS (16th)

NL Avg ... .266/.324/.387 ... .711 OPS

Take the career averages of the three players in question and slide those into last year's totals for a clearer view of how the Cardinals expect to improve ... wait, need to improve ... at the two middle infield positions. If the Cardinals get the career average production from second and short, here is where that would have ranked in 2010:

2B (league rank)
Schumaker ... .291 (2nd)/.349(5th)/.383 (9th) ... .732 (8th)

Theriot ... .284 (3rd)/.348 (5th)/.356 (9th) ... .704 (9th)

SS (league rank)
Ryan ... .259 (11th)/.314 (10th)/.344 (14th) ... .658 (14th)

Theriot ... .284 (5th)/.348 (4th)/.356 (13th) ... .704 (9th)

This makes the Cardinals' decision obvious.

At his career average vs. Ryan's career average, not their down 2010s, Theriot is a greater offensive improvement at shortstop than he would be over Schumaker at second base. That brings us back to where we started. No, not Theriot stealing second against Molina, but close. Defense. The Cardinals are a groundball staff that just signed one of the game's best groundball pitchers. How much do they have to get offensively to compensate for the change defensively?

For the Cardinals, Theriot alone is not the answer to that question.

The improvement offensively has to also come from third base, from right field and, yes, from Schumaker at second. It has to. Improvement around the field will compensate for anything the infield gives in the field.

The needed power has to come from within.

The Cardinals likened Theriot to Eckstein, and sure enough the comparisons are strong between Theriot and Eckstein and, yes, even Jason Bartlett. Theriot's fundamentals should help a team that had significantly flawed fundamentals last season; his presence in the clubhouse is needed caffeine for what was viewed as a stale clubhouse last season. These are Ecksteinesque elements. And, the groundball-crazy Cardinals were successful with reliable Eckstein at shortstop. The biggest difference, however, between Eckstein as a Cardinal and Theriot as a Cardinal isn't anything they bring to the field.

Think back to 2005. It's who is in the field around them.

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