ARLINGTON, Texas • Trying to categorize the first four games of this World Series is something of a mind-boggling experience, considering the wide variance in the conduct of the games.

The Cardinals scored 16 runs and the Cardinals and Texas Rangers totaled 23 runs in Game 3 of the Series. In the three other games, the teams combined for about half that many runs, 12.

There has been one shutout in the Series and one game in which a team scored 10 runs or more. But this is not unlike what happened last year, or for the last 40-plus years, really.

The world champion San Francisco Giants scored 11 runs in a Series game last year, but they also tossed two shutouts.

In fact, since 1970, there have been 29 times when a team has scored 10 or more runs in a game and 28 occasions when a team has pitched a shutout.

But from 1903, when the first World Series was played, through 1969, the relative numbers are totally different. There were only 31 occasions in that time frame when 10 or more runs were scored by a team in the World Series. By contrast, there were 83 shutouts pitched, including all five games in the second World Series played, with the New York Giants winning the Series four games to one over the Philadelphia A's.

That was the "dead ball era," but, even from 1930, when the "lively ball era" began, there have been just 22 World Series games of 10 or more runs compared to 51 shutouts.

The demarcation line of 1969, though, bears examination.

That was the first year the pitcher's mound was lowered by six inches, creating the desired effect of more offense. That was also the only year in the history of the game that four expansion teams were added, creating 40 or more pitching jobs in the major leagues and, in theory, diminishing the level of pitching efficiency.

A review of every World Series game suggests strongly that ultimate success will fall to a team which scores 10 or more runs in a World Series game or, when both teams achieve that in a particular Series, the team that has the highest run total in a Series game that year.

In 42 previous World Series that apply, the team that had the highest run output in a game - in games in which the winning team had 10 or more runs or scored 10 or more runs the most times in that Series - won 30 of those World Series, or 71 percent of the time.

That sounded good for the Cardinals.

But Texas had thrown the only shutout in a Series that was deadlocked at two games apiece after four games.

Teams that had the most shutouts in a Series won 41 Series out of 59 Series that applied, or 69 percent.

That sounded good for the Rangers.

Given the comparative numbers then, the Cardinals, before Game 5, were favored by a scant two percent of winning the Series. Unless they pitched a shutout and scored 10 or more runs.