TOWER GROVE - This past week, one swing and one trophy stirred nostalgia for Cardinals Nation and caused that hollow ache of old scar tissue breaking apart. Shortstop Edgar Renteria, the one that got away, was again a star on the game's biggest stage, cradling the MVP trophy he won while helping the San Francisco Giants to the World Series championship.
It was a divorce, so sudden and unexpected and (ultimately) unrewarding for Renteria, that it still apparently causes pangs for St. Louis Cardinals fans.
In 2004, a month or so after Renteria grounded out to end the 2004 World Series, the victorious Boston Red Sox added salt to their sweep by luring Renteria away with a richer contract. The Cardinals, according to reports, offered four-year deals worth $32 million then $36 million and finally one loaded with gizmos and deferred cash that could equal $39 million. Renteria signed a deal with the Red Sox for four years, $40 million. Handcuffed by their budget and their views of value, the Cardinals couldn't outbid Boston for their beloved shortstop. But they didn't leave the exchange empty-handed.
They got Colby Rasmus.
And losing him would be far more costly.
Since Renteria was a Type-A free agent, the Cardinals received Boston's first-round draft pick as compensation for losing Renteria. That pick, 28th overall in the 2005 draft, was used to select Rasmus, the torchbearer for a would-be replenished farm system and now a rising star in center field. Yet, as the Cardinals amble into another offseason a familiar theme has developed. The Cardinals are restrained by a budget that must stretch its elasticity to fit Albert Pujols' extension, and they will be looking for a buyer's price on free agents. So, why would they even entertain offers for Rasmus? The gap in value vs. production, you'll find, is far more significant that the $4-million difference that led to him in the first place.
This past week a variety of rumors and scuttlebutt tied Rasmus to the trade block, starting with reports out of Chicago that the White Sox coveted the center fielder. They were even willing to give up outfielder Carlos Quentin to get him. (How daring!) Other teams that would have interest include every other team in the majors, but some would have better chances than others, like Atlanta, Arizona or, possibly, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Senior baseball writer Joe Strauss dropped the nugget on radio that Rasmus' St. Louis-area home is up for sale, and others ran with the straight report to unsubstatianted places. Rasmus' father, writing as RCWarrior, acknowledged the For Sale sign on a blog (Brian Walton's The Cardinal Nation) and explained that his son was looking for more room - for a batting cage.
As the Hot Stove heats up, sometimes it burns.
The fuel behind these trade talks is the well-chronicle friction between Rasmus and manager Tony La Russa, to very different personalities. Even RCWarrior wrote at the blog that he thinks the relationship has been mended, but the two should only communicate by text message. Rasmus said several times that his trade request going public served to strengthen his relationship with his teammates (creating one, for example, with Pujols) and manager. Any deal would signal that relationship is irreparable on a Rolenesque level, because it's nearly impossible to see how the Cardinals could get a reasonable return on Rasmus. It would be difficult to replace Rasmus' production and improbable to receive similar production.
Start with his production.
Rasmus, who played most of the season at 23, had the highest OPS (.845) and slugging percentage (.490) of any NL center fielder with enough at-bats at the position to qualify for the batting title. The other eight and their OPS:
Colby Rasmus, STL ... .845
Andrew McCutchen, PIT ... .812
Chris Young, AZ ... .789
Marlon Byrd, CHC ... .778
Drew Stubbs, CIN ... .764
Matt Kemp, LAD ... .764
Shane Victorino, PHI ... .759
Michael Bourn, HOU ... .682
Nyjer Morgan, WSH ... .627
It seems as if Rasmus' production sneaked up on people. He has extended stretches riddled by strikeouts, and he missed some time with injury that also diluted the look of his production. But at the end of the season, it was all there. Twenty-three homers. Sixty-six RBIs. A 132 OPS+. That last number pits his OPS against the league average and sets it on a scale where 100 is the average, and anything better than 100 is above average. He was, by that measure, above average.
In fact, Rasmus was remarkable.
Since 2000, five times a full-time center fielder has won a Silver Slugger award for his offensive performance while playing the outfield. Compare Rasmus' production in his second season to those five seasons:
Matt Kemp, 2009 ... .297/.352/.490 ... .842 OPS, 124 OPS+
26 HRs, 101 RBIs, 97 runsCarlos Beltran, 2007 ... .276/.352/.525 ... .878 OPS, 125 OPS+
33 HRs, 112 RBIs, 93 runsCarlos Beltran, 2006 ... .275/.388/.594 ... .982 OPS, 150 OPS+
41 HRs, 116 RBIs, 127 runsAndruw Jones, 2005 ... .263/.347/.575 ... .922 OPS, 136 OPS+
51 HRs, 128 RBIs, 95 runsJim Edmonds, 2004 ... .301/.418/.643 ... 1.061 OPS, 170 OPS+
42 HRs, 111 RBIs, 102 runsCOLBY RASMUS, 2010 ... .276/.361/.498 ... .859 OPS, 132 OPS+
23 HRs, 66 RBIs, 85 runs
This isn't to argue that Rasmus is in line for a Silver Slugger this year. Rather, it's to illustrate how his production in 2010 - a season that granted was loaded with inconsistency for him - ranks against some of the best by center fielders in recent years. Check out those OPS+. Drill deeper, and consider that Carlos Beltran won the AL Rookie of the Year with a .293/.337/.454 (.791 OPS) turn in center for the Kansas City Royals. He also hit 22 homers that season and, partially because of his spot in the order, drove in 108 runs.
You want to trade that production?
What exactly would you have to get in return?
As the Cardinals are certain to field offers, that's the question. That brings us back to the measure of value and that $4-million gap that brought Rasmus to the Cardinals to begin with. For a pennywise club, Rasmus' production at his price is invaluable. Rasmus made slightly more than the $400,000 minimum this past season, and FanGraphs pegged his production return at $14.1 million. The better way to measure that - and to see if there's a trade that makes sense - is by finding similar players. The rankings above give us a guide.
The three-headed monster that drives The Fast Lane at 101 ESPN/WXOS in St. Louis toyed around with the Colby Question and fixated on the Arizona Diamondbacks. They too have a young center fielder, Chris Young. Young rebounded in 2010 to post a .789 OPS (see above) with 27 homers and 91 RBIs. There's an obvious similarity there, until you look beyond the baseball card and into the paycheck. Young is due $5 million for the coming year, and out in the distance he has an $11-million option for 2014. Rasmus? He's not even eligible for arbitration yet, which means the Cardinals set his salary.
What will he be due in the coming years through arbitration or extension? A lot of that will be determined by his performance in 2011. But there are some examples to draw on.
Matt Kemp, one of the Silver Sluggers mentioned above, scored a two-year extension after that season worth $10.95 million. He's due $6.95 million in 2011 before he hits arbitration for a third time. In Rasmus years, that would be $10.95 spread over 2013 and 2014. A player that the Cardinals' young center fielder has often been compared - Cleveland's Grady Sizemore - signed one of the richest deals for a second-year player several years ago. His deal was worth $23.45 million over six years, and if you apply his salaries to Rasmus' coming years it would mean Rasmus would make $750,000 this coming season, $3 million in his first arbitration year and so on.
Let's use Sizemore for illustrative purposes only, and line him and Rasmus up against Young and what he would cost the Cardinals if, say, there was a straight swap. (Note: Sizemore's salaries are not true for that year; rather they are lined up to match the year his contract would apply to Rasmus'.)
PLAYER ... 2011 ... 2012 ... 2013 ... 2014
Young ... $5 m ... $7 m ... $8.5 m... $11 m option
Rasmus ... $500,000ish ... ARB1 ... ARB2 ... ARB3
Sizemore ... $750,000 ... $3 m ... $4.6 m ... $5.6 m
So, Young is could make $31.5 million over the course of his current contract. Apply Sizemore's salary to Rasmus and for the next four seasons the Cardinals would be paying $13.7 million total for a center fielder and possible No. 5 hitter. For a tightening budget, he's a must. That kind of return on an investment is difficult to match via trade for one simple reason: Teams don't trade that level of talent. They horde it. They shelter it. They sign it to extensions. Now.
The players who are out there who are similar to Rasmus reveal the same reality. Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Andrew McCutchen was electric this past year and offers the same cost-controlled talent, but are the Pirates going to move him? Baltimore center fielder Adam Jones could echo his 2009, but he's an All-Star talent who is just now reaching arbitration. Think the Orioles would move him?
Fellow World Record Holder and KMOX sports know-it-all Kevin Wheeler, in a recent Round 2 entry here, offered a great example of a big-ticket trade with a talent like Rasmus. The Detroit Tigers hustled a three-team trade that involved Arizona and the New York Yankees with the cornerstone piece of the deal being Curtis Granderson. The center fielder was entering the third year of a five-year, $30.25-million contract with the potential for $13 million more in a 2013 club option. The Tigers included a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher (Edwin Jackson) in the deal, and for that package, as Wheeler pointed out, got an absolute haul:
Think the Cardinals could get some set of players like that for Rasmus, who costs less than Granderson? It's not quite two years of arbitration with Ryan Ludwick-like corner outfielder Quentin, but ...
A few years ago, the Cardinals negotiated with the Colorado Rockies for left fielder Matt Holliday, and one of the reasons why the deal didn't work out was because of "years of control." The Rockies wanted too many of them in return. The package of players that Colorado sought in exchange for Holliday, who was set to become a free agent after one year, had an aggregate of more than 10 cost-controlled years. It's that kind of package that would make dealing Rasmus realistic, especially if a team like Atlanta bundles pitchers. But it's hard to calculate a deal like that that helps in 2011 as much as Rasmus can.
Years of control is the currency of the realm, and Rasmus has it to go with a measurable impact. He has four of those seasons remaining. He's gold futures. He could be Apple stock.
The Cardinals couldn't stretch to meet Renteria's price six years ago, and with Holliday on board and Pujols on deck the Cardinals have to find more production at less cost from somewhere. Rasmus is the answer. It's possible to see how trading Rasmus could make the Cardinals better in 2011, but only had a significant cost for the years to come. Please, if there's a deal out there that makes sense to you, do tell.
Things didn't work out too well in Boston for Renteria, but his decision did do wonders for the Cardinals. They not only saved the $4 million and later signed David Eckstein (a World Series MVP himself, you'll recall), they got an asset who could be worth far, far more.
They should keep him and find out.
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