The way football schedules typically are constructed in BCS conferences — soft early, tough late — the potential for a fast start followed by a dip is built into the system.
Illinois has provided a perfect example in its first nine games. However, as the Illini emerge from their bye week, they are trying to avoid something more akin to a free fall.
They seized upon an agreeable six-game stretch to start 2011 unbeaten. But with three consecutive losses and No. 22 Michigan on deck, they need an upset Saturday at home to avoid a pattern rarely seen in major college football.
Of the country's 120 bowl subdivision programs, only 13 teams have started a season with at least six consecutive wins followed by three losses dating back to the late 1800s. Another loss would lump Illinois with a more exclusive group that have followed six wins with four defeats.
The Illini are already bowl eligible but trying to re-establish solid position in the Big Ten pecking order.
"I think they're hurt," coach Ron Zook said of his team's collective psyche. "They were hurt last week. But the way they've practiced, they're looking forward to getting back out there. I think we made some progress in the Penn State game. There were some things that could have changed the outcome."
The loss at Penn State marked the first time in four games that Illinois held the lead most of the second half. The Illini had won their previous three games that were decided by three points, helping to gloss over some potential problems.
At one point, the schedule appeared to be an ally from start to finish. But nothing looks easy the rest of the way. Not the Wolverines. Not 16th-ranked Wisconsin, which visits Champaign next week. Not even Minnesota, which beat Iowa and lost by a touchdown to Michigan State the last two weeks.
"We're 6-3 and we have to go win another game, then we're 7-3 and that's pretty darn good," offensive coordinator Paul Petrino said. "We battled to the end last year just to get six wins."
Illinois needs one more victory to finish with consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 1989 and '90, when John Mackovic led the Illini to marks of 10-2 and 8-4.
Linebacker Jonathan Brown said the Illini have rediscovered a purpose. But that will become yet another trite rallying cry without a win.
"Going back to the Arizona State game, we were playing to get ranked," he said. "Going into this week, what do we want to play for? … Going into the season we had a big chip on our shoulder and got kind of lax when we got into the rankings. The chip kind of fell off, so the biggest thing is getting the chip back."
Scoring also has been a problem for the 2011 Illini, who started the season with an explosive offense. They have failed to score in the first half of the last three games, managing only 28 points in that stretch.
Largely because of slow starts, they have been unable to take advantage of a defense that ranks sixth in the country.
"It's like everybody waits for someone else to make something happen," Zook said. "Waiting on A.J. (Jenkins) to make a play or Nathan (Scheelhaase). Just go do what we do and the plays will be there. When they show up, we have to be ready to make them."
