Little has been said about Ron Zook's future since the day he ended a news conference two weeks ago when asked a question that merely referenced the speculation this could be his final year at Illinois.
He will wrap up his seventh regular season today at Minnesota, where the Illini hope to end a five-game losing streak that has erased any good will Zook earned by starting 6-0.
Illinois needs a win to guarantee Zook's third winning season at the school, and the Gophers (2-9, 1-6 in the Big Ten) would seem the right opponent to get that done. But win or lose, Zook is in a tough spot.
There are precedents for a coach to last beyond seven seasons with a worse winning percentage, including his predecessor, Ron Turner. But first-year athletics director Mike Thomas is faced with a decision.
Illinois alumnus Paul Holmes, now a professor at State University of New York at Fredonia, wrote a paper titled "Why College Football Coaches Get Fired" and has tracked data over the years.
"No Big Ten football coach in the last few decades has survived as long with as poor a record as Ron Zook,'' Holmes wrote in an email. "The only coach with a comparably long and bad record was Ron Turner. Once Turner's record got as bad as Zook's is now, he was fired. At this point, Turner's legacy of mediocrity is one of the only things keeping Zook from being fired."
Zook's record of 34-50 (.405 winning percentage) is actually better than Turner's eight-year mark of 35-57 (.380). The difference is that Zook's last two seasons look solid based on a 13-10 record compared to Turner's 4-19.
Turner was able to survive under former athletics director Ron Guenther, who said in 2009 that five seasons was not a fair amount of time to judge a coach's performance. Zook revamped his staff and the Illini went to the Texas Bowl and beat Baylor last season.
They are now positioned to appear in consecutive bowl games for the first time since 1991 and '92. And a bowl win would mark the first time Illinois has won a postseason game in consecutive years.
However, dwindling fan interest is also a factor. With a rare eight-game home schedule, Illinois averaged 49,548 fans. The Illini had one sellout against Michigan but drew fewer than 50,000 for four games. The financial difference can be significant.
In 2009, Illinois has two sellouts and five crowds in excess of 60,000. Revenue from those games was about $1.7 million. When attendance dropped to 48,000 revenue dropped to $1.1 million, Guenther said last year.
But Zook is trying to remain focused on the matter at hand, attempting to give a positive spin to the final week.
"It's the last game for a special group of seniors,'' he said. "I feel like some of them have been around here as long as I have. And they came here when it wasn't cool to come here. They've got a chance to do something that's never been done here, and we need to do everything in our power to see that they accomplish that."
Thomas has said he would wait to evaluate Illinois coaches until after their seasons end. That could be as soon as tonight for Zook.
Coaches other than Turner have lasted longer than seven seasons at one school with a worse record than Zook's. Jim Caldwell, now the coach of the 0-10 Indianapolis Colts, made it through eight years at Wake Forest before being fired in 2006 with a .292 winning percentage.





