If recent history is to be trusted as a meaningful reference point, the Cardinals are in good shape as they shut it down for the All-Star break.
At the turn, the Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers are tied atop the NL Central standings with 49-43 records. And that bodes well for the Cardinals' second half.
Since manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan moved to St. Louis in 1996 to lead a baseball revival, the Cardinals have been in first place six times at the All-Star break: 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2009.
The Cardinals won the division all six times. And the '96 team captured the division after being tied for first place at the break. That means La Russa's Cardinals teams have gone seven for seven when they've led the division or had a share of the lead at the break.
(La Russa's other playoff team here, 2001, was in third place at the break, eight games out. It rallied to tie Houston for first but was relegated to wild-card status through a tie-breaker.)
So if you're feeling optimistic about the 2011 Cardinals, we'll second your emotion. Isn't the hardest part over? This team already has used the disabled list 15 times. Because of the non-stop chaos, the Cardinals have used 19 pitchers and 19 position players. They have turned to 11 rookies for assistance.
La Russa has concocted 75 lineup combinations. He has used seven right fielders, seven left fielders, five shortstops, eight third basemen, six second basemen, seven first basemen, three catchers and two center fielders.
The Cardinals' best starting pitcher, Adam Wainwright, is sidelined all season. Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, David Freese, Skip Schumaker, Allen Craig, Nick Punto, Gerald Laird and Eduardo Sanchez were lost to the DL for a time. After weeks of self-immolation, the bullpen was cleaned up and rebuilt.
Does this sound like a description of a first-place team to you? I didn't think so. The Cardinals clearly passed an onerous first-half survival test.
"Since you're asking me I'll tell you my opinion — outstanding," La Russa said after a 4-2 win Sunday over Arizona. " Everyone can weigh in with theirs. Just with the injuries. We've had some tough losses, and we've come back and play. When we're playing good we keep our foot on the pedal. It's a very good group of guys. Very good. They don't cheat anybody. Let's see how good we are in the second half."
The 2011 Cardinals remind me of the 2002 edition. Before we get into the similarities, let's state the obvious: while the current team has endured considerable mayhem, the 2002 Cardinals had to bury a fallen teammate, Darryl Kile. So when we speak of adversity, there's no comparison.
Still, the 2002 Cardinals had many other problems. There were injuries and frequent call-ups from Class AAA Memphis. The '02 team went through 26 pitchers, including nine that started at least 10 games. The '02 team also pressed 11 rookies into service.
The 2002 Cardinals were 47-38 at the break, leading the Reds by two games. They zoomed off into the distance in the second half, going 50-27 and winning the NL Central title by 13 games.
Paramount to the success was an intimidating offense that averaged 5.1 runs per game after the All-Star break. Five Cardinals — Scott Rolen, Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Eli Marrero and Tino Martinez — had 10 or more homers in the second half. And the wonderful Edgar Renteria batted .327 with 47 RBIs after the break.
The 2011 array of hitters, now healthy except for Allen Craig, has the potential to score a bunch of runs. Pujols, Holliday, Lance Berkman, Freese, Colby Rasmus (or Jon Jay), and Yadier Molina can do significant damage. And though shortstop Ryan Theriot doesn't qualify as a power hitter, he's tied for second among NL leadoff hitters with 32 RBIs.
That's why the Cardinals are excited. They rarely had to chance to put their finest and most dangerous hitters on the same lineup card in the first half, and that should change going forward.
Ah, but here is one potential difference between the 2002 and 2011 Cardinals: the '02 team benefited from a major influx of second-half additions.
After the All-Star break, general manager Walt Jocketty traded for third baseman Rolen and starting pitcher Chuck Finley. Rolen had 14 homers, 44 RBIs and slugged .561 in 55 games; Finley went 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 14 starts. Jocketty also made lower-profile moves to acquire relievers Rick White and Jeff Fassero to stabilize the bullpen. White was terrific, posting an 0.82 ERA in 20 games.
The 2002 Cardinals also caught an unexpected break when Andy Benes returned from a long stay on the DL, because of an arthritic knee, to pitch masterfully down the stretch.
I'd be surprised if current GM John Mozeliak can pull off the kind of major-magnitude deals to match Jocketty's modifications in 2002. Those big deals are more difficult to engineer now. Then again, we didn't see Mozeliak's stealth move for Matt Holliday coming in 2009.
With the Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates and Reds skirmishing for the top spot in the NL Central, their GMs loom as important factors in the second-half race. The players will compete on the field, but the most telling battle may come upstairs, as four front offices seek to augment their rosters.
Mozeliak will be competing against Jocketty (Reds), Dog Melvin (Brewers) and Neal Huntington (Pirates.) The Cardinals need a transfusion of pitching. The Reds could use a starting pitcher and perhaps a left fielder. The Brewers probably are on the lookout for a shortstop and bullpen help. The Pirates hope to acquire a hitter or two.
La Russa noted that Mozeliak is working hard to explore the moves to improve the roster. But if the Cards must go the distance with what they have, La Russa is OK with that.
"I like what we've got," he said.
Yes, and it's no surprise that La Russa likes what he has, now that he's gotten most of his team back from the doctor's office and training room.
