Bernie Bytes: Pujols should play

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Bernie Bytes: Pujols should play
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The St. Louis Cardinals played the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Mo.
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  • The St. Louis Cardinals played the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Mo.
  • The St. Louis Cardinals played the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Mo.

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I keep hearing and reading comments suggesting that Albert Pujols should be "shut down" for the rest of the season. Well, that's kind of silly, isn't it? I could see shutting Pujols down if his left elbow doesn't respond to a cortisone injection. If Pujols is in too much pain and discomfort to effectively swing a bat, then there's some merit in the idea of backing off.

But isn't that up to Pujols to decide? If the left elbow feels better today, or in a couple of days, then why should Pujols stay in the dugout? Why shouldn't he play? This isn't about Albert's right elbow, which has long-standing ligament damage. Pujols has played with the frayed ligament in that right elbow for years, and at some point he may have to undergo Tommy John surgery to fix it.

The elbow is more stable after Pujols' offseason surgery last year. If the ligament in the right elbow pops, it pops. It can happen at anytime. But from what Pujols has said, he isn't going to have surgery on the right elbow unless the ligament snaps. And he's right about that; there's no reason to have such major surgery unless the ligament snaps. So for those advocating the idea of shutting him down now to have the surgery -- there is no surgery planned. Why would Pujols voluntarily undergo a major procedure (Tommy John) to somewhat cloud his future when he'll soon be engaging in negotiations for a long-term contract extension with the Cardinals? 

And if that right elbow should unravel in the final days of the 2010 season? Well, that would be unfortunate. I hope the ligament holds firm for the rest of Albert's career. But look at it this way: if it is destined to happen (if at all), would you want the ligament to blow out now, or, say, May of 2011? If the right elbow came undone in the closing days of the 2011 season, at least Pujols would have a head start on rehab time. Which obviously wouldn't be the case if the ligament blew out during the 2011 season.

Here's the only risk involved in playing Pujols the rest of the way if he's physically capable of doing so: his batting average would fall below .300. Pujols is batting .308. It would be the lowest BA of his career. But if he can keep the average at .300 or higher, Pujols will have put together a remarkable string of 10 consecutive seasons of hitting .300. He's done it, so far, in each of his nine MLB seasons. Since Aug. 26 Pujols is batting .210, and his average has plummeted from .321 down to .308. But Pujols insists that he's never been about the numbers, that he doesn't play for stats. So if that's his philosophy, I don't think you'll see the guy beg out of the lineup to preserve a batting average. Pujols is always in pain. Whether it be the legs, the elbow, the back, the oblique, etc. And when does Pujols ever try to talk his way out of a lineup? He's wired to play. He has a high tolerance for pain. It's in his DNA.

Again, if Pujols is in too much pain to play, then yes, shut him down. But if he can play, and wants to play, the he should play. Aren't fans paying money for tickets? Why would you remove the best hitter in baseball from the lineup? This isn't spring training.

READING TIME 3 MINUTES:

* Adam Wainwright is 1-5 with a 4.73 ERA in his last six starts. After Tuesday night's poor loss to the Cubs, Wainwright's Cy Young chances are clearly diminishing. Like many of you, I wonder if his innings load from the start of last season has played a role in Wainwright's problems. Since the start of last season Wainwright is third among all MLB pitchers with 449.1 regular-season innings pitched. That's a lot. But rather than presume that the downturn is related to innings, I took a look at some other numbers. And here's the deal: Wainwright has, indeed, been victimized by some bad luck. Here's why I say that ...

1. During his 1-5 stretch, Wainwright's strikeout rate is 9.23 per nine innings. That's better than his rate (8.06) over his first 25 starts. A healthy strikeout rate is a healthy indicator.

2. Wainwright's ground-ball rate (66.7 according to STATS LLC) is slightly higher than his GB rate (65.3) over his first 25 start.

3. Wainwright's walk rate is slightly up, but nothing dramatic. In his first 25 starts, Wainwright walked 2.14 batters per nine innings. Over the last six starts, that rate is 2.25. It's not that big a deal.

So what has changed? Well, the randomness of baseballs in play. In Wainwright's first 25 starts of the season, the batting average against him on balls in play was .260. But over the last six starts, the BA against him on balls in play is a real whopper: .384. That explains a lot. The balls are finding holes and vacated spaces.

And while Wainwright's ERA is 4.73 over this stretch, his fielding-dependent ERA is 2.91.

So yes, I'm of the mind that Wainwright has pitched better over the last six games than his standard pitching numbers would suggest.

* Another booming crowd in Cincinnati on Tuesday night, as 16,973 Reds fans flocked into the Great American Ball Park. The Reds attracted 12,061 on Monday night. Over their last eight home games, the Reds have averaged 20,859. Why doesn't Cincinnati care about their first-place team? Why are the Reds drawing such embarrassingly low crowds? The Reds players deserve much better than that. In St. Louis, it's a different story: the fans that have produced an average of 41,000 per game deserve a better team for their support ... one more Reds note: if the playoffs began today, the Reds have a 1-12 road record against the NL teams that would be in the postseason field.

* Will the Cardinals finish .500 this season? They're 74-69, and I wouldn't wager a lot of cash (if any at all) on the propostion that they'll finish with a winning record. The Cardinals would have to go 7-12 the rest of the way to finish at exactly .500, and 8-11 to finish a game above .500. Given the schedule, and the obvious signs of a team that's packed it in for 2010, it's not as if 8-11 will be a simple task. And if they finish with a losing record ... wow. How is it possible to have a losing team with Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Colby Rasmus and a tremendous defensive catcher in Yadier Molina?

* Peeps keep saying that the Cardinals have quit on Tony La Russa, as if that's some kind of hard-hitting statement. No, the Cardinals players have quit on themselves. And they've quit on the fans. And that's much worse. All you have to do is watch the giveaway at-bats, the loss of focus and concentration. And yes "concentration" is also effort. Effort takes on many forms. At some point in recent days and weeks, all of the players have played as if they're resigned to losing. It's human nature. But I think the 40,000 out there who are paying for baseball deserve the best shot from the players.

* In going a humiliating 16-25 against the Cubs, Brewers and Astros this season, Cardinals hitters have batted .235.

Thanks for reading ...

-Bernie

 

 

 

 

 

 

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bernie miklasz

You've read him in the Post-Dispatch since 1989. You can argue with him online in Bernie's Press Box forum. And now, you can get more of columnist Bernie Miklasz's opinions in his web-only "Bernie Bytes" column. He'll post quick-hit commentaries on a variety of topics every weekday.

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