Good morning ...
The Cardinals' swoon will likely cost Albert Pujols a realistic chance at the MVP. I don't believe the MVP should be decided on the standings, but that's how many baseball writers frame the basis for the award. They'll always look to the first-place teams or the Cinderella teams for their MVP. To me, the award should be about one thing: who is the best player? I don't think it's fair to penalize a great player on a mediocre, disappointing or losing team by denying him an MVP nod simply because his teammates stink.
Criteria choice aside, it's becoming increasingly obvious that Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto has established himself as the strongest candidate for the National League MVP award as we move into the final month of the regular season. Barring catastrophe, the Reds will win the NL Central in a gallop. They are tied with Atlanta for the league's best winning percentage. And Votto has had an exceptional season in every imaginable way.
Votto ranks 3rd in homers, 1st in RBIs, 1st in batting average, 1st in OBP, 1st in slugging, 1st in OPS. And to enlighten those who downgrade Votto because he plays half of his games in a hitter's park, let's point out that he leads the NL in road batting average (.345) and OPS (1.029) and has the same amount of homers (16) on the road and at home. Votto is also batting a remarkable .382 with runners in scoring position this season.
Pujols is having a terrific season, and the Cardinals' slide isn't his fault. But his numbers, while close to matching Votto's, come up second-best in the head-to-head comparison. For example, Pujols hasn't been as productive as Votto on the road; Albert ranks 7th in the NL in road OPS (.934) and has a road batting average of .282. And while Pujols is batting a wonderful .356 with runners in scoring position, it doesn't match Votto's .382.
What about defense? The voting wouldn't come down to that, but just in case you're wondering, Pujols is a +7 in the John Dewan Fielding Bible ratings; Votto is a +5.
Sabermetrically, it's close. Votto has the edge over Pujols in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Votto's WAR is 6.3 to Pujols' 5.9. In Value over Replacement (VORP), Pujols rates the slight edge over Votto: 65.7 to 64.7. But that won't matter much if the Reds topple the favored Cardinals and win the division.
What could change this? One of two dramatic events: (1) a miracle charge into the postseason by St. Louis; (2) a Triple Crown by Pujols.
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* Derrick Ward is an intriguing possibility as a backup RB for the Rams' Steven Jackson. Ward was a swell (and speedier) compliment to power runner Brandon Jacobs with the NY Giants' during Steve Spagnuolo's time there. Ward signed a free-agent deal with Tampa Bay before the 2009 season and didn't impress, averaging only 3.6 yards on 114 carries. And then Ward annoyed the Tampa Bay coaches by failing to show up for camp in good physical shape. So the Bucs released him. In 2008, Ward rushed for 1,205 yards and averaged 5.6 yards per carry while working in tandem with Jacobs for the NYG. He's also a capable 3rd-down back, having caught 41 passes in '08. I don't know the guy. I don't know if he's lost heart or turned into a dog. I don't know how he'll respond to this obvious embarrassment. I don't know if Ward would want to come to a losing team and be the No. 2 to SJ39. But Spagnuolo does know Derrick Ward, and it'll be interesting to see if Spags views the player as a candidate for personal rehabilitation.
UPDATE: Rams beatwriter Jim Thomas informs us that the Rams will take a pass on Ward ... so the search for that elusive No. 2 RB continues.
* I don't know why so many people are freaking out over the fact that new Rams owner Stan Kroenke is good friends with John Shaw. First of all, Shaw has no desire to run the Rams. He burned out on that responsibility a long time ago. When Shaw withdrew from Rams Park several seasons back, chaos ensued. And he doesn't want to come back here. As a team adviser, Shaw will offer advice if asked for it -- but primarily on business matters. And Kroenke is a businessman. Shaw won't be pulling the strings at Rams Park. The paranoia is bizarre. I'm also confused as to why so many fans and media choose to forget Shaw's valuable contributions to the 1999 Super Bowl Champion Rams. Among other things, Shaw convinced Dick Vermeil to change the coaching staff after the 1998 season. He suggested that DV consider Mike Martz as offensive coordinator and set up a meeting between them. Working with Indianapolis GM Bill Polian, Shaw personally made the trade that brought RB Marshall Faulk to the Rams. Shaw's biggest mistake -- and it was epic -- was turning the football operation over to Jay Zygmunt when the Rams reorganized after the '99 Super Bowl win. That's when Shaw began his retreat from Rams Park, and the franchise entered a gradual decline phase that caused the 6-42 record over the past three seasons.
* So far, so good with Richard Curl as the QB coach for Sam Bradford. But we'll be keeping an eye on this one throughout 2010.
* Every time I watch "Hard Knocks" on HBO, I experience another pang of irritation in realizing that the Rams could have had WR Santonio Holmes in exchange for a 5th-round draft choice.
* The loss of WR Donnie Avery to a season-ending knee injury is more substantial than one would think. I believe Avery was a bit underappreciated in what he did for the Rams over the past two seasons while operating in a dysfunctional, injury-ravaged offense. Avery caught 100 passes over two seasons, 8 for TDs, and provided a deep threat. Among the WRs drafted in 2008, Avery ranked third in receptions over his first two NFL seasons, trailing Denver's Eddie Royal (128 catches) and Philadelphia's DeSean Jackson (124). But those guys played in more established offenses.
* With Avery gone, the remaining WRs in Rams camp have combined for only 175 catches and 4 receiving TDs in their NFL careers. This will not help the development of a young QB. Tuesday, we mentioned WR Vincent Jackson, who may or not be traded by San Diego. According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, the Rams aren't among the teams reportedly interested in Jackson.
Thanks for reading ...
-Bernie
