With the untimely demise of ace Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals obviously face a more difficult test in 2011. The Cardinals can replace Wainwright in the rotation but can't replicate his value.

We've had a few days to let the grim news settle. The Cardinals and their fans are regrouping and resetting the possibilities. The Cardinals may have lost Wainwright, but have they lost hope?

The answer is no.

The division is still there for the taking. Don't take it from me. Just ask the analysts at Baseball Prospectus. Earlier this week, BP revised its playoff percentages to account for Wainwright's loss. And the updated odds may surprise you.

Before Wainwright's injury, Baseball Prospectus gave the Cardinals a 51.1 percent chance of winning the division, with Milwaukee next in line at 27 percent, Cincinnati third at 13.2 percent, and Chicago fourth at 8.1 percent.

After the injury, when Baseball Prospectus recalculated its playoff odds, the Cardinals came out on top again, but by a slimmer margin.

With no Wainwright, BP still gives the Cardinals a 37.9 percent chance of winning the NL Central. Milwaukee was next with 32.6 percent, followed by Cincinnati (18.7) and Chicago (10.2).

This lines up with the attitude down in Jupiter, where the Cardinals are training instead of mourning.

"We still feel good about this club," GM John Mozeliak said Saturday. "Look, we still have a lot of talent in that clubhouse. This won't be easy. Then again, when is it easy? We're not in as dire a situation as people think."

To overcome the loss of Wainwright, the Cardinals must have the good luck of sturdy health. Additional injuries would be especially hazardous to a team lacking in depth. And they can't afford down years from their expected producers. The bonus of unexpected contributions would greatly help their cause.

If you are looking for a best-case scenario, we'll offer a few reasons why it's premature to dismiss the Cardinals' chances. But we attach this caveat in advance: This is all based on a tight race. If a rival puts everything together and clicks off 90 or more wins, the Cardinals probably will get left behind. But in a congested NL Central, the Cardinals figure to have a shot.

Here's why:

1. The Remaining Rotation

The first four of Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse is pretty good. Yes, they'll need Carpenter to be healthy and nasty. They'll require more innings from Garcia, and he's capable of achieving it. Westbrook had a 3.48 ERA as a Cardinal last summer; he should be even stronger in his second full season back from Tommy John elbow surgery. Lohse is healthy for the first time since early in the 2009 season.

The Cardinals have won divisions with a lesser foundation. Again, think back to 2002. The Cardinals went through hell. Staff ace Darryl Kile died. Woody Williams made only 17 starts. The team ran through a tryout line of 14 starting pitchers. And somehow their starting pitchers combined to go 64-44 with a respectable 4.04 ERA that ranked seventh in the NL.

The 2006 Cardinals won the World Series despite having considerable chaos in their rotation. Consider: In the regular season, the '06 Cardinals managed to win 83 games while getting a combined 95 starts and a collective 5.72 ERA from Jason Marquis, Sidney Ponson, Anthony Reyes, Jeff Weaver and Mark Mulder.

At times like this it's easy to forget the troubles of the past. The Cardinals pushed through negativity before. They can do it again.

2. The Surprise Factor

Did we expect the 2002 Cardinals to get an 11-5 record and a 4.02 ERA in 24 starts from Jason Simontacchi? Jason who? Did the 1967 World Series champion Cardinals expect 222 innings, a 16-6 record and a 2.67 ERA from Dick Hughes? Heck, Hughes started the year in the bullpen and didn't make his first start until May 25. The '67 team went without Bob Gibson (fractured ankle) from July 17 through Sept. 6 and compiled a 36-19 mark during his absence. Nelson Briles moved from the bullpen to the rotation when Gibson went down and went 10-2 with a 1.89 ERA in 14 starts.

Heading into the 1985 NL championship season, did you expect a 21-8 record with a 1.93 ERA from John Tudor? I don't think so. And the 2006 Cardinals were forced to turn to a rookie as their emergency closer late in the season. Some kid named Wainwright.

3. Beware the Underdog

Manager Tony La Russa is often at his best when his teams are counted out. He pulled off surprises in 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2009. And even after the 2006 team hung on to win a division title, few gave the Cards a chance to sweep through October. La Russa thrives on a chance to sharpen his team's competitive edge by playing the no-respect card.

"You wish that this wouldn't have happened with Wainwright," Mozeliak said. "But in these situations, there's no manager in baseball I'd rather have than Tony La Russa. He's a master at rallying the players and getting them to understand what it will take to navigate a difficult terrain."

4. A Boost from the Offense

If you're concerned about the defense, I'm with you. If you are concerned about Lance Berkman's baseball health, I'm with you. If you believe the Cardinals may have overrated shortstop Ryan Theriot, I understand. If you are nervous about third baseman David Freese, it's only natural.

These are all open-ended questions as we wonder if Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday will receive ample help from their lineup mates this season.

But suppose these questions all turn in the Cardinals' favor? Take Theriot, for example. Shortstop David Eckstein was widely identified as a player on the downside when he arrived in St. Louis, but he got the job done for the 2005 and '06 division champs.

The 2010 Cardinals were ranked near the bottom of the MLB rankings for offensive production from third base. If Freese holds up, that will change. The Cardinals received little offense from the shortstop position last season; if Theriot can get back to having a .360 onbase percentage, he'll be a decent offensive upgrade. Don't laugh; Cardinals shortstops had a hideous .289 OBP last season. (Again: I'm not sure about Theriot's defense, but I also had the same concerns over Eckstein.)

I think it's reasonable to anticipate improvement from third-year center fielder Colby Rasmus. I don't think it's crazy to expect something of a bounce-back season (offensively) from second baseman Skip Schumaker. As for Berkman, esteemed baseball analyst Bill James offers this Berkman projection for 2011: a combined onbase-slugging percentage of .879, with 22 homers and 72 RBIs. The pitchers could use the support of a more robust offense.

5. The Clubhouse

My sabermetric friends scoff at things like this, but the human element does matter. Talent is the most important factor. If your team can't play good baseball, an upbeat clubhouse is irrelevant. But in trying times, a miserable clubhouse can be a drag on morale. I don't care what you do for a living, a happy working environment is a positive. The 2010 clubhouse wasn't exactly Disneyland. Mozeliak and La Russa sought to alter the personality blend by introducing Berkman and Theriot into the mix for 2011.

"You can tell already there's a different vibe," Mozeliak said.

To win the division, the Cardinals need a lot of things to click in and go their way over 162 games. But this mission is hardly impossible.