READING TIME 5 MINUTES:
* OK, so the solidarity of scissors and the cute shaved-head thing got the TV people all aroused and provided an opening to divert and talk about something safe and happy instead of directly dealing with the head-on reality of bad baseball and the Cardinals' late-season collapse. But the Cardinals lost again, this time getting blanked 3-0 on two hits and one walk Monday in Houston. So what's next? Medicinal leeches? Store all 25 players in hyperbaric chambers between games? I don't think an exorcism would work.
The Cardinals are what they are. And what they are since May 4 is 51-52, which is the 18th-best record among 30 MLB teams. And the ninth-best record in the NL over that time. The crash is disturbing on many levels. But here's the one thing that sticks with me -- and unless the Cardinals turn things around this will haunt them all winter: they have a veteran nucleus of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. They have a potential Rookie of the Year in pitcher Jaime Garcia. And you have a second-year CF, Colby Rasmus, who ranks 3rd in OPS among all MLB center fielders. And you can't do better than 51-52 over the last 103 games? Wow. That's remarkable. And difficult to pull off, eh?
* The Cardinals have lost 11 out of their last 15. And a couple of things jump out over these last 15 games.
-- No. 1, Matt Holliday hasn't been getting it done. He's batting .246 during this 4-11 stretch, with a .277 OBP. He's 2 for 20 with runners in scoring position.
-- No. 2, Jon Jay has gotten caught in the rookie cycle and his luck has turned. You didn't really expect Jay to hit .360 all year, did you? But his emergence is one of the main reasons why the Cardinals moved Ryan Ludwick in the three-way deal that landed starting pitcher Jake Westbrook. The Cardinals counted on Jay and Allen Craig and others to provide offense out of RF. Over the last 15 games, Jay is batting .232 with a .587 OPS. Craig is hitting .176. I'm not dissing Jay, who still has found ways to contribute. He has 10 RBIs over these last 15 games, for example. And he's hitting .330 for the season. He's been a positive addition. But Jay just wasn't going to be able to sustain a ridiculously high batting average on balls in play. That's all. So this was inevitable.
--No. 3, Colby Rasmus has been a non-factor; sidelined much of the time with a calf injury, he's 0 for 10 during the 15-game tumble.
--No. 4, the well has gone dry on Felipe Lopez. He's batting .154 over the last 15 games, and .144 since July 29. No one ever thought that Lopez was, say, Chase Utley. But his decline is stunning.
-- No. 5, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are human: over the last 15 games, they've combined to go 1-4 with a 4.22 ERA.
CONTINUING ....
* If this downward spiral cannot be reversed, we'll be witnessing a late-season disintegration for the fourth consecutive year. In 2007 the Cardinals went 2-14 from Sept. 7 through Sept. 21 and fell out of contention. In 2008, they lost 16 of 22 from Aug. 29 through Sept. 22. And last season, the Cardinals lost 14 of their final 21 regular-season games as a prelude to losing three in a row to the Dodgers to get swept out of the postseason. Now, in fairness to the 2007 and 2008 Cardinals teams, they had to endure a lot of injury problems and turmoil and managed to overachieve until fading at the end. I believe in putting these things in context. Still, that doesn't change the trend line -- which clearly demonstrates a pattern of late-schedule slides.
* Unless the Cardinals begin chopping into the Reds' six-game lead in the NL Central, I'm going to focus on their chances in the wild-card race. One point needs to be made in advance: unless the Cardinals come out of their catatonic state and start playing winning baseball, it simply doesn't matter. But if the Cardinals can find a way to snap out of it, they certainly figure to have a shot at reaching the postseason via wild-card visa. Going into Tuesday's slate, the Cardinals were third in the WC standings, trailing Philadelphia by 3 games and San Francisco by 1.5 games.
The Phillies and Giants don't have easy schedules the rest of the way. The Phillies play Atlanta 6 times, the Marlins 7 times, the Mets 6 times, the Dodgers twice, the Brewers three times and the Nationals 6 times. Atlanta is a winning team, as is LA. The Marlins are .500, and the Mets are hovering around .500. The Phillies are 5-7 against the Braves, 6-6 against the Mets, 7-4 against the Marlins, 7-5 against the Nats. In other words, they haven't dominated the core opponents on their remaining schedule.
As for the Giants, the remaining schedule has 5 games against the Rockies, 6 vs. the Dodgers, 7 vs. the Padres, 6 vs. the Diamondbacks, 3 vs. the Brewers and 3 against the Cubs. The first-place Padres, the Rockies and the Dodgers are all winning clubs. The Giants also have a 10-game road trip starting Sept. 3 that will take them to LA, Arizona and San Diego. And the Giants are 32-33 on the road this season.
* No surprise, really, to see J.A. Happ shut down the Cardinals on two hits. Yes, the Cardinals had roughed him up in the past, but Happ is a talented pitcher and it was merely a matter of time until they encountered him on a good night. The performance of Houston's starting pitchers hasn't gotten much attention, but the rotation has been outstanding over the last two months. Since June 30, Astros starters are 21-13 with a 2.86 ERA. The team is 30-23 over that time. And since trading ace Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia on July 29, the Astros have maintained their rotation excellence. Without Oswalt their starters are 12-7 with a 2.97 ERA.
* Accordingly, Cardinals' hitters figure to have a challenge over the next two games. Tuesday's starter, Wandy Rodriguez, has a 2.85 ERA at Minute Maid Park in 13 starts this season. Wandy loves the home yard; since the start of the 2007 season he's 26-16 with a 2.68 ERA at Minute Maid. In the NL, only three starting pitchers have a better home ERA than Wandy over the past 3+ seasons. In his last seven home starts, Rodriguez is 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA. Wednesday, the Cardinals will see Nelson Figueroa, a recent addition to the rotation who has allowed 3 runs in 18 innings as a starter.
* Only 14,589 fans attended Monday's game at Cincinnati; the surging Reds won again, downing Milwaukee 5-4 in extra innings. That's an amazingly small crowd considering the nature of the Reds' magnificent season and the home team's captivating style of play. Attendance is up this season at The Great American Ball Park. Last year the Reds were averaging 23,292 fans through 66 home dates; this season the average is 25,897. But given the Reds' absence from the playoffs since 1995, you'd think the rise would be more dramatic. The Cardinals are averaging 40,997 at home this season and have hardly been inspiring.
* Jay Bruce is ripping it apart for the Reds these days; over his last 12 games he's batting .436 with a .511 OBP and a 1.026 SLG -- with 7 homers, 12 RBIs and 12 runs. And in a stat that probably interests only me, one of the more underrated aspects of the Reds' success is the offensive production being cranked out by catchers Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan. Reds catchers have combined to rank No. 4 in the majors (and No. 2 in the NL) with a .795 OPS. They're second in the majors in RBIs (80) and batting average (.296). And they're doing OK behind the plate, having thrown out 28.2 percent of attempted stealers. That's not great but you have to factor in the presence of young pitchers in the Cincinnati rotation and their weakness at holding runners close. Homer Bailey in particular.
* I'll have some Rams/football talk tomorrow -- finally -- but let me chime in with this: Vincent Jackson? Obstacles, yes. The Chargers say he won't be traded. And if he's traded they'll undoubtedly demand a bounty. He'll also be serving a three--game NFL suspension at the beginning of the season for the violating the league's personal-conduct policy.
And if Jackson doesn't sign with San Diego by Saturday, Sept. 4, his roster-exempt status will automatically increase his suspension to six games. And Jackson, who has had two DUI arrests during his career, wants a five-year, $50 million contract, with $30 million guaranteed. Is Jackson trustworthy? Is he worth the risk of all of that money, plus the loss of premium draft picks? Tough call. This is complex. But at some point, the Rams need to find a No. 1 receiver, or at least a big-play receiver, for QB Sam Bradford. And over the last two seasons, Jackson has averaged 17.8 yards per catch, with 16 TDs and 21 grabs of 25+ yards on his haul of 127 receptions. The idea is certainly worth exploring. (And no, don't talk to me about Antonio Bryant (noticeably slowed by a bad knee) or Laveranues Coles. They're available after being released recently. Don't get me wrong, Coles has been a productive receiver. But Cole is an underneath guy and the Rams have plenty of those. And he's 32. Internally, rookie signee Danario Alexander isn't close to being ready, so forget that.
As always, thanks for reading...
-Bernie
