When the Cardinals signed Matt Holliday to a seven-year contract worth $120 million before the start of the 2010 season, the transaction raised inevitable questions.
Holliday landed the richest contract in Cardinals history. Fans and pundits wondered if the Cardinals overpaid, with GM John Mozeliak capitulating to the demands of uber agent Scott Boras.
And concerns were expressed over how the Holliday contract would impact the Cardinals' payroll flexibility when it came time to do a deal with Albert Pujols. By paying $17 million a year to Holliday, how could the Cardinals possibly afford to re-sign Pujols?
Mozeliak insisted it could be done, but his vow was met with considerable skepticism. Did the Cardinals err in deciding to keep Holliday at the cost of losing Pujols?
Well, nearly two months into the second year of the Holliday contract, the deal is looking more and more attractive. And that is especially true given some of the enormous contracts handed out to other free-agent outfielders over the last few seasons.
The Washington Nationals gave Jayson Worth a seven-year, $126 million contract this past offseason. He's batting .247 with a combined onbase-slugging percentage of .791. The Boston Red Sox gave Carl Crawford seven years and $142 million. He's batting .212 with a .247 OBP. Obviously, Crawford and Werth have plenty of time to deliver. It's early.
If we go back as far as 2007, you'll see a few regrettable outfielder contracts. Jason Bay, in the same free-agent class as Holliday, got $16 million a year from the New York Mets in a four-year deal. Since signing the deal, the injury-prone Bay has eight homers and 54 RBIs in 436 at-bats.
In 2008, the Toronto Blue Jays gave Vernon Wells seven years and $126 million. The were able to dump that awful contract on the Los Angeles Angels last winter. And Wells — who will make $20 million annually through 2017 — is batting .183 with a .527 OPS this season.
And I can't imagine that the Chicago Cubs are thrilled to know they're on the hook to pay Alfonso Soriano $18 million a year through 2014. Soriano does have 11 homers this season, but he's batting .265 with a .297 OBP. And he plays terrible defense in left field.
By comparison, Holliday's $17 million salary looks like a wise investment. He's 31. And after this season, there will be only five (possibly six) years left on the contract, so the Cardinals have limited the potential liability.
Since Holliday re-signed with St. Louis, he ranks second in the National League in batting average, second in on-base percentage, fifth in slugging and sixth in RBIs. He's off to an outstanding start in 2011, leading the NL in batting average (.356) and ranking third in OBP (.447) and fourth in slugging (.568.) And according to Fielding Bible defensive rankings, Holliday is a "plus" left fielder for the second consecutive year.
No, that doesn't eliminate the problem of accommodating Pujols after allocating big payroll dollars to Holliday. But I believe the Cardinals had an understandable strategy in mind.
Mozeliak refuses to publicly discuss his dealings with Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano. But clearly the Cardinals' management had reason to conclude it would be extremely difficult to re-sign Pujols. And that's probably an accurate read, given media reports of Lozano seeking a 10-year deal approaching $300 million. Mozeliak has repeatedly said that his concern is the length of contract rather than the average annual average salary. The Cardinals want to commit to fewer years.
If the Cardinals figured that the Pujols terms would be even higher than anticipated, it explains the club's desire to get Holliday locked in.
Team Pujols would have you believe that they were serious about wanting to reach a new deal with the Cardinals at least two years before his contract was due to expire.
And on multiple occasions I've criticized the organization for dragging and waiting too long to initiate serious negotiations with Pujols. I can assure you that Cardinals Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. disputes that characterization.
That's how it goes in tough negotiations: team management has a version of the truth, and the player and agent have their version of the truth. And the opposite views are often incompatible.
The Cardinals signed Holliday for two reasons: (1) confidence in his projected long-term viability; (2) the desire to have a franchise-caliber position player in place to build around in case Pujols bolted as a free agent. The last thing Mozeliak wanted was to lose Holliday, then lose Pujols.
When the Pujols talks broke off before the start of spring training, each side faced potential risk. The Cardinals left themselves vulnerable to the obvious market trend of rising costs for elite free agents. They would lose leverage if Pujols had his typically supreme season.
For his part, Lozano went all-in on the proposition that Pujols would have his usual monster season, putting up huge numbers to enhance his appeal in a free-agent walk year.
What we didn't know was how Pujols would deal with entering a season with an unresolved future for the first time in his career. It can't be easy to have the additional pressure of performing to justify a potential record-setting contract.
I don't think Lozano counted on a .411 slugging percentage.
There's a long way to go, but if the decrease in power continues, how many teams will rush in to give an epic contract to a player who turns 32 before the start of next season? And would it cause the Cardinals to become more cautious in what they choose to offer Pujols after the season?
Pujols ranked 85th in the majors in slugging percentage going into Saturday's 3-0 win at Kansas City. The list of players outslugging Pujols so far this season includes Coco Crisp, Corey Patterson, Brett Wallace, Wilson Betemit, Maicer Izturis, Starlin Castro, Johnny Damon, Luke Scott and Ryan Ludwick.
With 115 games left on the Cardinals' schedule, Pujols can still put up impressive numbers. If he erupts for a power binge that lasts for several months, no one will remember his slow start. And Team Pujols can exhale and feel better about everything.
But no matter how this turns out it's beneficial for the Cardinals to already have a bird, Matt Holliday, in hand.
