Sorry for the late start today; my travel to Seattle for the Rams-Seahawks game didn't get me to my hotel room until nearly 4 a.m. STL time. Better late than never on the Bytes, I suppose ...
Reading Time 5 Minutes:
* The Cardinals gave shortstop Rafael Furcal two years and $14 million over the weekend. I have mixed feelings. You probably do, too. My initial reaction? The Cardinals overpaid. They are taking a real chance on Furcal remaining reasonably healthy. That's the risk. And you have to wonder about the erosion of skill due to age, because Furcal is 34. What can he provide over the next two seasons? What is the upside? How realistic is the best-case scenario? Well the Bill James projections for 2012 are encouraging. He has Furcal playing 124 games, with 533 plate appearances. He has Furcal batting .270 / .338 / .394, with a good wOBA of .324. If Furcal comes close to hitting those numbers, the Cardinals would be delighted.
* How realistic is it to expect Furcal to hold up? He has played in 100 or more games in a season only once since the start of 2008. Furcal had a couple of minor physical ailments after coming over from the LA Dodgers on July 31, but helped the Cardinals down the stretch. The team began its dramatic, against-the-odds charge to the NL wild card on Aug. 25. And from that point until the end of the regular season, Furcal batted .286 / .350 / .482 with five homers and seven doubles. He was outstanding, an important factor in the late-season push, before stalling offensively in the postseason. (Though Furcal did have two hits and an RBI in the Cardinals' Game 7 clincher over Texas, and he made some fantastic plays throughout the postseason.)
* Furcal overall was a minus 3 fielder for the Dodgers and Cardinals in 2011 according to the Fielding Bible. But it wasn't as bad as it appeared; Furcal was fine on balls to his left and right. He struggled with the stuff hit right at him, finishing at minus 6. That's correctable. Diminishing range isn't.
* Furcal had a healthy 2010 and played very well for the Dodgers, hitting .300 with a combined onbase-slugging of .826. He was worth about 4.2 wins for the Dodgers. Again, the Cardinals would be pleased to see a repeat performance. What this really comes down to is this: can Furcal be the 2010 version of himself over the next two years? It's possible. Our SABR friends think he's a good risk. I was just surprised by the money. I thought the Cardinals could get Furcal for about half of what they ended up guaranteeing him. But the shortstop market is lean, and the options were limited, and maybe they had to overpay for a little. I'm skeptical that Furcal can be a 4-win player in 2012. But if he can be a 2.5-win player, that would be OK. Keep your fingers crossed.
* Next up: Cardinals need an outfielder, one that can bat right and take some shifts in center field. I like Carlos Beltran, but he wasn't used in CF last season by the Mets/Giants. He played exclusively in RF. Beltran is a switch-hitter that has better career numbers as a RH bat but his overall hitting performance is balanced. He's been good from both sides of the plate. He posted a robust OPS+ of 156 last season for the Mets-Giants. He can still hit. But can Beltran play a lot of center field?
And is he willing to come here without assurances of having a starting job? How important is playing time to him? Obviously Beltran wants to play, but would he be content with playing a little less as a busy fourth outfielder. And there would be a lot of ways to have Beltran on the field. I'm thinking this way: Beltran could play RF while Allen Craig mends from knee surgery early in the season. Beltran could play RF when Lance Berkman needs a day off at 1B; Craig could shift to first. Beltran could play as a late-inning defensive replacement in RF. (And he's good in RF; positive fielding ratings.) Beltran could fill in at LF when needed. He could take shifts in CF when the Cardinals face LH pitching. And he can be valuable pinch hitter coming off the bench. That would add up to a lot of ABs.
MOVING ON ...
* I miss Brenda Warner.
* Sam Bradford has to play tonight, if that's physically possible. That's what leaders do. He gets it.
* Let's go Blues. That is all.
* Actually there's more: it's good to see the Blues establish such a strong presence on home ice this season. That actually started under deposed coach Davis Payne; the team was 3-1 at Scottrade before the coaching change. And since Ken Hitchcock took over the Blues are 8-2-1 at home, a winning percentage of .773. Overall this season the Blues are No. 2 in the league in home-ice winning percentage at .767; only Detroit (12-2-1, .833) has been better. Last season the Blues were 11th in the NHL in home winning percentage (.622). Two seasons ago they were 28th on home ice with a win percentage of .500. The fellas need to keep this up.
* I hope that the failed PED test by Ryan Braun turns out to be a mistake, only because I don't want to believe that he'd be juicing. Hey nothing should surprise us anymore. I made a vow (after the Mark McGwire episode) to never be fooled again by presuming that any player was clean. But that said, it's still a jolt when a big name gets exposed. And while I know some Cardinals fans may not like him 'cause he plays for the rival Milwaukee Brewers, I've always liked Braun. He's been a terrific player, a happy personality, someone with natural charisma. He's been good for baseball.
* And now Braun could be, or is, the latest black eye for baseball. If this turns out to be true, at least we can take comfort in knowing that the drug-testing system is working -- well, at least as much as it can work. If athletes are determined to beat the tests and continue to cheat, history tells us it can be done. But anytime a "name" player gets nabbed it reinforces the credibility of the MLB system. The upcoming HGH testing will be interesting.
* If Braun is indeed suspended for 50 games, the NL Central has lost some firepower going into 2012, eh? That also assumes that Milwaukee free-agent first baseman Prince Fielder will leave the division. But if Fielder heads to another home base outside the NL Central the division will have lost Albert Pujols, Fielder and possibly Braun for the first 50 games. At least 3B Aramis Ramirez stayed in the NLC, going from the Cubs to the Brewers as a free agent. He had 26 homers and 93 RBIs last season. I guess you'd have to say the best player in the NL Central right now is Reds first baseman Joey Votto.
* As they trudge into Monday's game at Seattle, the Rams have scored 11 TDs from scrimmage this season. Unless there's an eruption of offensive TDs between now and the end of the season, this will put the Rams on the short list of most anemic attacks in league history. Since the NFL switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978, no team has scored fewer than 11 TDs. (The 1982 Colts don't count; the NFL season was ripped apart by a strike and teams played nine games.) The standard for futility for 16 games is the 2006 Oakland Raiders who scored 12 TDs from scrimmage. We'll assume that the Rams will score at least two more offensive TDs between now and the end of the season. Vote of confidence.
Thanks for reading.
-Bernie
