A look at the deal that sent RHP Blake Hawksworth to the LA Dodgers for middle INF Ryan Theriot.
My initial reaction:
Theriot as a super utility guy: like it.
Theriot as the starting shortstop: don't like it.
If the Cardinals plan to go ahead and install Theriot at SS -- and general manager John Mozeliak served up that possibility on Tuesday -- then the Cardinals didn't fill a primary need in this transaction.
The Cardinals must jack up the onbase percentage at the top of the lineup to create more run-producing opportunities for middle-lineup bats Albert Pujols / Matt Holliday.
Theriot did have a two-year OBP of .358 in 2007-2008. That isn't great, but it isn't bad. But in 2009 and 2010, Theriot's OBP dropped to .332. That's not close to having what you want in the No. 1 or No. 2 lineup hole.
If Theriot can ratchet his OBP up to 2007-2008 levels, he'll be OK.
The Cardinals' OBP at No. 1 last season -- .306 -- ranked 26th among the 30 MLB teams.
So yes, Theriot would represent an upgrade of sorts. But it isn't that simple. If Theriot is the SS, then clearly the Cardinals will be sacrificing defense. And given the composition of the STL pitching staff, that shouldn't be downplayed.
According to John Dewan's "Fielding Bible" metric, Brendan Ryan saved the Cardinals 19 runs in 2009 and 24 runs in 2010 with his defense at shortstop.
Ryan was ranked No. 1 among qualifying major-league shortstops in 2010 with a plus/minus ranking of +31 according to Dewan. He was ranked No. 2 in 2009, at +25. And Ryan was particularly strong going to his right, registering a +20 in 2009 and +30 in 2010.
Theriot has been (mostly) an adequate or even above-average shortstop during his career. According to Dewan, Theriot was a + 5 shortstop in 2007, a +6 SS in '08, and a + 7 shortstop in 2009. He was rated 13th, 12th and 13th defensively among ML shortstops in those seasons, respectively. And that's pretty good.
Theriot only played 246 innings at shortstop in 2010 and wasn't ranked in comparison to regular shortstops by Fielding Bible. But he was was a minus 7 shortstop according to Dewan.
At shortstop Theriot saved 4 runs in 2007, 5 runs in 2008 and 5 runs at 2009. But in limited action at SS in 2010, Theriot cost his pitchers 5 runs according to Fielding Bible.
So at this point Theriot's range appears to be questionable. Perhaps it will turn out to be better than expected; that was the case when the Cardinals signed David Eckstein.
Theriot has limited range to his right, never having scored better than a +2 on ground balls hit to that side. He's been better to his left.
And at second base, where Theriot played most of the time in 2010 for the Cubs and Dodgers, he did fine. He was a slightly minus fielder at 2B until last season, when he graded out as a +5 second baseman in 992 innings there.
Defensively, Theriot may be better at 2B than he is at SS. But Cardinals 2B Skip Schumaker has the backing of manager Tony La Russa and I'd be surprised to see Theriot move Schumaker out of there ... though I guess in theory it's possible.
B. Ryan was an empty spot offensively in 2010. Really one of the least productive hitters in the majors. There's no way to get around that; he had an OBP of .279 in 2010. That put him in the Cesar Izturis neighborhood.
I'd be willing to sacrifice some defense for a substantial offensive upgrade, but this doesn't appear to satisfy that standard. Theriot figures to provide better offense than B. Ryan, but not enough to cover the loss of defense at a crucial position. After all, Theriot's wOBA of .286 last season was among the worst in the majors, and not dramatically better than B. Ryan's wOBA of .256.
Cardinals pitchers had the highest ground-ball rate (62.6 percent) in the majors last season according to STATS LLC. And B. Ryan covered a lot of ground for those pitchers.
Theriot, who turns 31 next week, has a good rep in the game. He's the proverbial tough-minded competitor, which endears him to TLR. Cardinals players really respected Theriot when they played against him during his Cubs days. His personality will be welcome in the clubhouse.
Theriot could be a flexible, moveable and useful piece in 2011 if the Cardinals decided to utilize him that way. But if Theriot is the full-time shortstop, his talent could be stretched too thin.
If Theriot can turn back the clock, draw more walks and restore his OBP to 2007-2008 levels, this could work out.
-Bernie
