There will be plenty to discuss as soon as we learn more precise details about what's being offered to Albert Pujols by the Cardinals and the Marlins. But the Miami bid certainly appears to be serious. So here are a few thoughts for now..

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1. If Pujols leaves, I'd be reluctant to demonize either side ... well, at least not until we know exactly what was offered by both teams. Let's go over this again: baseball is a business, period. Pujols isn't morally obligated to re-sign with the Cardinals. This is his first crack at free agency and he has every right to take advantage of it to steer his career in a way that pleases him. On the other side, the Cardinals are under no obligation to give an aging Pujols a silly contract that could complicate the club's ability to compete down the road.

The only way I'd change my opinion -- and cast blame -- is if Pujols walks from a deal that puts the Cardinals reasonably close to the Marlins' offer. If it's close, (relatively speaking) then why would he leave? It would expose Pujols as a phony given his previous statements about wanting to be here forever.

Or, I would change my opinion and assign blame on the Cardinals is if they make no attempt to adjust what they've already offered, and basically push Pujols into South Florida through their ambivalence.

But let's understand something here: this is a tough negotiation. It's hardball. These things aren't supposed to be easy. It can be brutal, with high emotion and hurt feelings on both sides.

Sure we'd like to pretend otherwise. We frequently get caught up in the  game's romance, the myth-making, the need to reassure ourselves that every player is in this for the love of the game, takes pure joy in playing for "our" team and that the dollars are a secondary concern. It isn't often the case. There's a reason why there's only one Stan Musial. And oh, by the way: Stan the Man never had a chance to test the free-agent market. (OK, he received an offer from a proposed pro league in Mexico, but it isn't the same.)

2. If Pujols leaves, both parties will take a hit and be damaged by it by those who take sides. Pujols will be portrayed as a phony, another version of LeBron James, an ungrateful superstar that walked out on a loyal fan base that adored him with their virtually unconditional love. Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. will be branded as a cheapskate, a tightwad, a man who cashed in on Pujols for 11 years, only to keep DeWallet snapped shut when it came time to really pay up on Pujols for the first time in his career.

And while there will be elements of truth in each portrayal, it still comes down to this: each side has to do what they've got to do. No one should be cavalier about big-money decisions. Pujols has been incredibly successful; he's the game's No. 1 hitter over the last 11 seasons and a certain Hall of Famer. DeWitt has been incredibly successful; since he took over in 1996 the Cardinals have won two World Series, more pennants than any NL team, and more postseason games than any MLB franchise except the big-budget NY Yankees. It would be a damned shame to see the partnership come to an end, but that's baseball. Among the game's truly elite, who stays in the same place anymore? Derek Jeter? Anyone else? Joe Mauer, but only after he got his price.  

Some reports have the Marlins offering Pujols a 10-year contract. If that's true I don't see the Cardinals going that far if it includes a fat annual average. (I could be wrong, of course.) But these teams are coming from different places. The Marlins are trying to draw attention with bold acquisitions to re-brand the franchise and establish a true fan base for the first time in team history. Of course it makes sense for the Marlins to act with the kind of desperation you just don't see in many franchises these days. 

The Cardinals are an iconic franchise that's won 11 World Series championships. The feverish need to make a big splash simply isn't something that the Cardinals have to do. And don't forget the Dan Lozano Factor here. The agent is desperate to make a big score. He's competing against power agent Scott Boras, who reps Prince Fielder. And this is a competition between agents, too. I don't think the desperation -- from Miami, and with Lozano -- works in the Cardinals' favor.

If Pujols leaves, keep this in mind: you will be hearing and reading claims (coming out of the Lozano camp) that the Cardinals could have prevented this with a preemptive strike. Here's what I think: not much of a chance of that. Unless the Cardinals agreed to top the Alex Rodriguez contact (10 years, $275 million) with their initial offer, a preemptive stike wasn't going to happen. Without an A-Rod deal, Lozano and Pujols were determined to go to the market to explore offers. As they should have. They always knew that the Cardinals would be waiting to take a last shot as long as Pujols/Lozano were willing to give them one. Lozano and Pujols weren't going to settle for "less" from St. Louis until and unless they absolutely had to. It was in their best interest to go to the market and see if some drooling owner would rush in and change the marketplace. That's why Pujols/Lozano broke off the talks before the 2011 season.

3. Pujols should be very careful in assessing the Marlins. Again, I say this without knowing exactly what they are pitching to him. If they make a crazy-good offer that blows the Cardinals' contract off the table, then it will be difficult for him to refuse But for starters, the new ballpark in Miami will be huge. Some already are comparing the place to Petco Park in San Diego, which dramatically reduces a hitter's power numbers. Second, the Marlins are thin on starting pitching. Third, the SEC (Securities Exchange Commission) is investigating the financing of the Marlins' new ballpark, a project that may have set some sort of unofficial U.S. record for swindling taxpayers. No. 4 the Marlins certainly look like they're trying to win now, having given rich deals to SS Jose Reyes and closer Heath Bell.

But the Marlins are flush in new-stadium money, and they are obviously itching to spend it. The fan support would be jacked for a while, because of the new yard and the team's eye-opening free-agent shopping spree. But what will the scene look like in three or four years when the novelty wears off? What happens if this guy Loria, the team's dramatically moody owner, sees the crowd-numbers thin, changes his mind, and orders up a significant slashing of payroll? Pujols had better get a no-trade clause unless he wants to take the risk of becoming a pawn several years into the contract. There is stability, a history of consistent winning, and passionate fan support in St. Louis. And does Pujols really want to be seen in those clown costumes that serve as the Marlins' new uniforms?

4. While I think the Cardinals would be wacko to give Pujols a nine-year, or 10-year, deal that contains massive yearly salaries taking him into his late 30s and early 40s, they shouldn't delude themselves into thinking that everything will be just fine over the next few seasons if Pujols leaves. Lance Berkman is operating on a yearly basis now, moving closer to retirement. Can the Cardinals count on Berkman to deliver what he did last season? He hit 31 homers, drove in 94 runs, had a .412 onbase percentage and a .547 slugging percentage. That's a lot to ask for again. (Berkman had 24 homers before the All-Star break last season and seven HRs after the break.)  Allen Craig would get the most playing time in filling a post-Pujols void. He's an exciting bat. Craig's rate of production on only 219 plate appearances in 2011 was very impressive: 11 homers, 40 RBIs, .555 SLG, and a .917 OPS. But what happens as he gets more exposure? Do pitchers find holes in his swing? Or does he adjust and continue to get better? If Craig has an every-day role, it also means that the Cardinals have less to bring off the bench. And they'll have less depth for covering injuries. As is, they already need a RH bat that can help out in center field.

Suppose Berkman breaks down? Suppose Craig -- on the DL twice last season -- proves to be less than durable? (Update: Craig recently had knee surgery, which will sideline him between four to six months. Which underlines the point.) Pujols is still the foundation. How much that foundation is worth -- especially moving into the latter stages of his career -- is a matter of analysis and interpretation. But without Pujols in the lineup the Cardinals will miss a huge chunk of their core, and that won't be easy to replace over the next few years. And with Pujols gone, it puts a lot of pressure on other hitters that benefit from his presence.

And please don't tell me about the power-hitting prospects on the way. Perhaps these kids will pan out. But I simply can't take that leap of faith and expect it to happen. When it comes to anticipating production, there are no sure things. Well, except for Pujols.

5. The Marlins obviously have given Pujols something to think about. Until now the market for Pujols has been limited for two reasons: (A) concerns over his age; (B) the belief that he was set on staying in St. Louis. We have said all along that it would take only one out-of-the-blue offer from a highly aroused team owner to change the dynamic. And that's apparently happened.

Depending on how the Marlins' offer compares to whatever it is that the Cardinals finally offer Pujols, he'll have a lot on his mind. This will be a tough call. Sure, he could take the Cardinals' money even if the offer is  inferior to Miami's. It's still a lot of money, and Pujols could live happily ever after. But I'll repeat: Pujols is under no obligation to do that. This is his chance to determine his future on his terms. Sure, he has said he wanted to be a Cardinal for life. Sure, he has said he wanted to be like Musial. Sure, he has said that winning is the top priority. A move to Miami would obviously contradict all of those declarations.

But Pujols has the right to change his mind, especially if the Cardinals (in his view) lowball him. But there are plenty of reasons for Pujols to want to stay in St. Louis. I could be wrong, but I don't think he'd regret staying here. I think there's a chance he'd regret taking a chance on linking his remaining career to the Marlins. But if money is guiding this decision, then perhaps it will be easier for Pujols to choose. Based on what he decides, we'll find out a lot about Albert Pujols, that's for sure. 

Thanks for reading ...

-Bernie