Reading Time, 5 Minutes:

* It's been entertaining to watch so many people take the bait on agent Dan Lozano's attempt to ignite interest in his superstar client, Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols. The early free-agent market for Pujols has been awfully quiet, and Lozano apparently is feeling the pressure. So all he needed was a phone call from the devious Cubs -- bingo! -- and it was off to the races. And give Cubs president Theo Epstein and their GM Jed Hoyer credit for helping Lozano out. It only serves the Cubs' purposes to give the appearance of interest in Pujols. It's a smart play, and a freebie.

* Suppose the Cardinals react to the Cubs' overture by increasing their offer to Pujols, which would tie up even more of the St. Louis payroll on one player for a long time? That obviously would help the Cubs. Actually, I don't believe STL GM John Mozeliak will fall for that one, but it was worth a shot. And consider this: if other teams plan to make a bid on Pujols, the Cubs' interest in could cause a little panic in the market and nudge a team to overreact and make Pujols a crazy offer. The Cubs would also benefit in that scenario because it would help them to get Pujols out of the NL Central.

* In Chicago, the scribes seem to have picked up the scent on what Lozano is up to. They haven't jumped on the bait, at least not yet, at least not until there is actual evidence of the Cubs making a substantial offer to Pujols. Here's just a sampling of the reaction ....

-- Gordon Wittenmyer, Chicago Sun-Times: "A recent report suggesting serious interest in Pujols appears particularly specious because of the Cubs' longer-range goals, Pujols' age, his contract expectations and thoughts among several Cubs insiders. It looks more like an attempt to stir up the appearance of a wider market for the St. Louis star."

-- Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune: "If you think the Cubs are going to sign a 32-year-old Pujols to a contract of eight-plus years -- one that blows away the nine years, $200 million he has on the table to stay with the Cardinals -- then you probably also believe Epstein and general manager Hoyer can trade Alfonso Soriano for a No. 2 starter. Neither's going to happen. Prince Fielder is a different story, but only barely."

* Hoyer, by the way, may have revealed the Cubs' more likely intentions during an interview with MLB Network Radio (XM-Sirius) on Tuesday. Hoyer listed the Cubs' needs as lefthanded hitters, defensive improvement and starting pitching. Hoyer elaborated and stated that finding a lefthanded bat was a big priority. I don't believe Pujols bats lefthanded, but perhaps I missed it. I hope for his sake Hoyer doesn't catch heat from Epstein for going off script and disrupting the "let's just do a little test run to see if they're idiots in St. Louis" game plan.

* Of course, Fielder does swing a power LH bat ... and keep in mind that the new Cubs manager is Dale Sveum. He's been Milwaukee's batting coach and is close to Fielder. That doesn't mean the Cubs will make a serious run at Fielder, either. But he's four years younger than Pujols, has a positive history with the new Chicago manager, fills the need for a LH bat, and would likely come at a cheaper price than Pujols.

* Does this mean that I'm ruling out the Cubs as a legit threat to snatch Pujols from the Cardinals? You can't completely cross it off the list; there are too many nutty baseball people who succumb to impulse buying. And as we wrote about yesterday, Epstein handed out some of the worst contracts in baseball over the past several years as the Boston GM. But Theo also manufactured "interest" in Yankees closer Mariano Rivera to force the Yanks to add a second year to a new contract. Epstein is pretty good at gamesmanship.  

* Still, that doesn't mean we should now assume that Epstein has lost his mind .... Pujols remains a great player but is also showing signs of decline. Choose any of the three ratings systems -- FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus or Baseball Reference -- and they all reveal the same pattern. Pujols' Wins Above Replacement (WAR) figure has dropped for three consecutive years. He was worth about 5.5 wins to the 2011 Cardinals; as recently as 2009 Pujols had a WAR in the 9.0 range. Dismiss that if you'd like, but MLB teams have analysts on the payroll who study these things. And if an aging player's WAR is still good but sinking, that will likely give a GM pause before he commits 7, 8 or 9 years to Pujols at a high annual average salary. This is just plain common sense.

* And we'll just go ahead and assume that Epstein and Hoyer have noticed the Cubs' historical trend -- the connection of starting pitching and team success. When the Cubs won the NL Central in 2003, they ranked No. 2 in the NL in starting-pitching ERA. When they won the division in 2007 and 2008, they ranked first and second, respectively, in starters' ERA. That's why the Cardinals have been to the postseason nine times over the past 16 seasons; they ranked among the top six in the NL in starting-pitching ERA in six of the nine seasons. The Cubs had the worst starting-pitching ERA in the NL last season. Unless the new management team fixes that, the Cubs could sign Pujols and Fielder and it wouldn't matter much.

* Finally, some friendly advice for Lozano: you're doing a pretty good job of playing the media, but if you want to really fire things up you have to be more direct and bold. The stealth campaign and media manipulation will only work to a point. So far, Mozeliak isn't falling for the media leaks and the spin; you have to be more aggressive than that, Dan.  Teams seem to be reluctant to get involved in the Pujols' sweepstakes because the industry seems convinced that Pujols is determined to stay in St. Louis. And as long as that perception remains strong and prevalent, it may subdue interest in your client. So come out big next week at the winter meetings. Bring Pujols to Dallas, set him up in a press conference, and get the message out: he's willing to leave St. Louis. That will set off a media frenzy and catch the attention of numerous potential customers.

Programming note: I'll have a column on the Blues in Thursday's newspaper ... which of course will also be available on line.

Thanks for reading ...

-Bernie