Greetings from Washington D.C.
Sorry that I'm a little late in posting the daily Bernie Bytes, but I was in transit this morning. I'm in D.C. to be at the White House for Tuesday's Presidential Medal of Freedom ceremony that will honor Stan Musial and 14 other recipients.
Let's begin...
Five Takes on Albert Pujols and the Cardinals:
1. I'll continue to disappoint many of you who want me to freak out, overreact, go berserk and start bashing Albert Pujols and/or team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. on the Feb. 14 just because Team Pujols rejected the team's contract offer. Sorry; it isn't going to happen. I'm not far from the Potomac River here from my downtown DC hotel, but I have no plans to jump off a bridge. This game is in the early innings. It's just getting started. The spring-training "deadline" for a contract was just the first of what will likely be many developments before we reach this end game.
So if you want to lose it and go into convulsions every time there's a headline, go for it. I just won't be joining you, that's all. This Pujols-DeWitt standoff will likely end after the season, when free agency gets underway. And that will be the time for real worry, angst, anger, bridge-jumping, ritualistic sacrifice, racing through the streets with torches, etc.
2. Let me repeat this again: I'm mostly on Pujols' side here. As I have written or said at least 50 times by now, he has given the Cardinals 10 seasons of remarkable, historically profound baseball at a value price, a relative bargain price. As I've written or said 50 times by now, DeWitt can't go cheap here; it's time to pay up. As I've written or said 50 times by now, the Cardinals waited too long to get this contract resolved;as they waited the market shifted under them and teams gave highly questionable deals to Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, etc. So it's not as if I'm sending a sympathy card to DeWitt.
3. But this is not an entirely one-sided deal here. Any reasonable person can see that, and I'd like to think that I qualify as a reasonable person. Would you automatically give Pujols a 10-year guaranteed contract at a cost of $300 million? Do you think he would provide the full return on that 10/300 investment? Do you have any concerns about Pujols' ability to remain healthy for 10 years? Do you think he will remain maintain his incredibly high standard of play for the next 10 years? (Are you aware of the research that can pretty much predict what most players will do once they hit age 37, 38 and does it give you a basis for alarm?) Would you give Pujols the 10/300 right now even if you thought there's a good chance no other team will offer 10/300 later? Would you give him the 10/300 right now, even if it means having a form of payroll hell later in the contract? If you hesitated to answer "YES" to most of these questions, then welcome to DeWitt's world.
3a ... This just isn't as simple as some people would like to make it. Just because then-Texas Rangers owner Tom Hicks gave Alex Rodriguez a 10-year deal for $252 million in 2001, just because the Steinbrenners of NY gave A-Rod a 10-year deal worth $275 million in 2007 -- well, does DeWitt have a moral obligation to hand out a similar contract? If one team gives a bad contract to a player, does that mean every baseball owner is obligated to be just as stupid? Did a couple of A-Rod contracts really establish a credible precedent, or were they just idiotic deals? Are you really hating on DeWitt for wanting to see if he can get a deal done on a seven-year basis? If so, good for you. And like I said before, I want to see Pujols get paid. He deserves it. If DeWitt goes lowball and refuses to make a competitive offer, then shame on him. But let's just say DeWitt is willing to go 7 years at $30 million per. Do you really want him DeWitt sentenced to hard-labor camp as punishment for offering a guy 7 years, $210 million? How far do you expect DeWitt to go? Are there any limits to what you would give Pujols? Just wondering.
4. No, I do not blame Pujols for seeing what the free-agent market will bring. I do not blame his agent, Dan Lozano, for exploring the goal of a 10-year guaranteed contract for his client. If it is Pujols' objective to get 10 years, and to land the largest and contract in the history of the sport, then he's entitled to go for it. It doesn't mean he will get it. Or that he will ultimately accept it even if he can find a kook to offer it. I would be surprised if some team gave Pujols 10 years, $300 million. But all it takes is one wacked-out owner to play ball and the 10/300 mission is accomplished. So why not try? Pujols is no pawn. I think he can call the shots here. But it's also obvious that Pujols has turned Agent Lozano loose to do his thing. And as I've said before, this is a huge piece of business for Lozano. He's on his own now, after breaking away from the Beverly Hills Sports Council. Lozano can't sell short here. He just can't. The entire industry is watching Lozano on this. Potential clients are watching Lozano on this. The MLB Players Association is watching Lozano on this. Lozano has the best player in the game and he's going to take him to the free-agent market with the hope of finding an epic, landmark deal. Of course, Lozano will try to set a new standard for a baseball contract -- wouldn't you do the same if you were driving Lozano's car? This doesn't make Lozano a bad guy. It makes him a businessman ... just as DeWitt Jr. is a businessman. Lozano is seeking to make the deal of a lifetime for the game's No. 1 free-agent prize.
And here's the other aspect at this: even if Pujols' top objective is to remain with the Cardinals for the rest of his career, it makes sense for Lozano to play this game, stretch it out, and take it all the way into extra innings. Because if Team Pujols can solicit offers from other teams during free agency, it could drive up the price and force the Cardinals to enhance their best-and-final offer if they want to keep Pujos.
5. Of course, Lozano is also taking a risk here. Suppose Pujols blows out the elbow in 2011? Suppose Pujols begins to show signs of slipping (I doubt that one, but you never know.) Suppose, for whatever reason, the free-agent market doesn't shape up in a way that fits the fantasy scenario envisioned by Team Puols? Suppose Lozano can't find the one nutcase willing to give Pujols 10/300? And even if a 10-year offer comes, what if the team is a joke that won't give Pujols a chance to win? After all, Albert has said that having a chance to compete and win is important to him.
The game is just beginning, so take a seat and watch it unfold.
Thanks for reading ...
-Bernie

