Bernie Bytes: Will Molina stay or go?

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Bernie Bytes: Will Molina stay or go?
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Yadi Molina

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* Some of you asked why I didn't include Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina on my list of 15 players/teams that are in the best position to increase their star power and importance in the wake of Tony La Russa's retirement and Albert Pujols' departure. It's a good and legit question. I gave Molina a lot of thought. He's a Gold Glove catcher. Molina had a superb 2011, putting together his finest season offensively, batting .305 with an .814 OPS, 14 homers and 65 RBIs.

But I couldn't get past this: Molina, who will be paid $7 million in 2012, becomes a free agent after next season. I can't predict the future. Until the end I thought Pujols would stay. I don't know what impact the Pujols' exit will have on Molina. They're close. I can't imagine that Yadier would be pleased by the Cardinals-Pujols divorce. But it doesn't automatically mean that Molina is more inclined to leave as a free agent after the season. I don't know what he's thinking, and he isn't the type to share those thoughts with the media.

I'd think there'd be a good free-agent market for Molina. First-rate catchers are in short supply. I don't know what the Cardinals are inclined to do with Molina. Will they try to get him signed before or during the season? Will they allow him to head to the FA market? Will the Cardinals low-ball Molina or try in earnest to make a fair deal? And how much is he worth? Molina will turn 30 in July. There are a lot of miles on his knees. His throw-out rate declined in 2011. Molina is an interesting case. He's among the best at his trade -- and he's a great Cardinal -- but you never know when he'll start to wear out. I don't think that will happen anytime soon. But it does at least raise the issue of how far the Cardinals or other teams are willing to go on length of contract if Molina is seeking a long-term deal.

With so much uncertainty, I didn't want to put Molina on the list. I think his prominence is already established here. Cardinals fans love and respect him. If for some reason Molina would re-sign with the Cardinals in a deal that would keep him here for a long time, the allegiance would place Molina on the short list of the most popular St. Louis athletes. But after seeing Pujols go, perhaps I was reluctant to assume that Molina wants to be a Cardinal for life, or that the team wants to do whatever it can to make him a Cardinal for life. To an extent, Molina is in limbo.

Moving On ...

* One more thought on Molina, and I am sorry to do this to ya: last season the Los Angeles Angels used a three-man committee at catcher that combined for a meager .192 batting average and a sickly .554 OPS. They also threw out only 19 percent of runners attempting to steal bases.

I'm thinking Angels owner Arte Moreno already has loaded Yadier's phone number into his one-button speed dial ... and if he needs an ace recruiter, Pujols would probably volunteer.

Moving On ...

* The Cardinals' reported agreement with lefty reliever JC Romero set off some caterwauling on the STLtoday.com sports forums, which is fine if a little confusing. It wasn't an exciting signing. I don't think anyone, let alone the Cardinals, are billing this as the team signing a guy who is the second coming of Billy Wagner. Moreover, Romero has shown signs of slippage in the last year or so. But he's being hired to perform a very specific role, and he's still capable of doing it. Romero can still do a number on LH batters. And isn't that the point? So why the fuss?

Last season LH hitters were 9 for 39 against Romero. Five walks. Zero homers. They batted .231 with a .318 onbase percentage and a .231 slugging pct. That would be good. After a bit of struggle early in the 2011 season, Romero sharpened his slider and became even tougher on LH batters. This is what LH batters did vs. Romero from May 19 until the end of the season:

4 for 25
11 Ks.
4 BB
0 XBH

.160 / .276 / .160

Yes, Romero has lost about a mph off his fastball the last two years. His slider has lost a little zip. He flunked a PED test before the 2009 season; the infamous andro was detected in his system. But before you connect the PED to the slight drop in velocity and performance, you may want to consider this: last season Romero's main problem was his changeup; they (all hitters) batted .308 against it. And part of that was bad luck, with a .333 batting average on balls in play vs. the change. But he doesn't throw the changeup vs. LH batters, so in many ways it's a non-issue unless new manager Mike Matheny does something foolish like allowing Romero to face RH batters.

As far as his fastball: 21 percent swing and miss rate last season against all hitters.

His slider; 36 percent swing and miss rate vs. all hitters (but mostly LH batters.)

All hitters batted .250 against his FB and .250 vs. the slider.
Romero will also get the ground balls; he had a 65 pct GB rate in 2011.
He's a flippin' LOOGY. He's OK. And I've just written more about J.C. Romero than you wanted to know...

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bernie miklasz

You've read him in the Post-Dispatch since 1989. You can argue with him online in Bernie's Press Box forum. And now, you can get more of columnist Bernie Miklasz's opinions in his web-only "Bernie Bytes" column. He'll post quick-hit commentaries on a variety of topics every weekday.

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