Yadier Molina says baseball is a business, and of course he is right. Molina seems to be playing it straight. If the Cardinals pay him, he'll stay. If they don't pay him, he'll leave after the season.

That simple declaration cuts through all of the propaganda. You know, the kind of phony-baloney junk served up by a future Hall of Fame first baseman who's now employed by a team based near Disneyland.

I have only one minor gripe about Molina: I thought agents work for players. I thought players were in charge of their careers. I didn't know that players were supposed to follow orders given by their agents. So when Molina says that he'll do what his agent tells him to do, it's a bit confusing.

Anyway, it says here that the Cardinals should pay up and keep Molina as their catcher beyond this season. His All-Star value warrants a considerable investment.

I attach only one caveat, and it's potentially significant: I have no idea what Molina's agent wants in a new contract. I don't know if the demands are reasonable or loony-tunes crazy.

Moreover, if Molina and his agent are determined to take this to free agency — as was the case last year with his pal, the big first baseman — there isn't much the Cardinals can do except roll over. When a player is set on venturing into the free-agent market, preemptive negotiations are pretty much useless.

On the other hand, if the Cardinals aren't prepared to make a worthy offer to Molina before the end of spring training, then I don't blame him for testing free agency. Why wouldn't he? This would be his one shot at maximizing his earning power.

Until last season, Molina wouldn't have qualified as a plus offensive player at the catching position. But Molina had the finest hitting season of his career in 2011, finishing fifth in combined onbase percentage and slugging and fourth in runs created among MLB starting catchers.

To put it in sabermetric terms, Molina was good for about 3.5 wins above replacement level, and that's a good number for a catcher. Part of that rating takes defense into account, and defense is Molina's specialty. He's won four consecutive Gold Glove awards as the NL's top catcher.

Molina is also heralded for his handling of the pitching staff, his vast knowledge of opposing hitters and his ability to "frame" pitches to influence ball-strike calls.

In 2011, Molina posted his career-low percentage for throwing out base stealers, nailing about 24.6 percent of the thieves according to STATS LLC. From 2005 through 2011, Molina threw them out at a rate of 39 percent. We saw a significant drop in 2011. Was it evidence of a decline phase?

Hardly. If anything, the drop in his caught-stealing percentage was more of a reflection on several Cardinals pitchers who didn't help him by holding runners on. Opponents swiped 15 bases in 15 attempts against Jaime Garcia. Jake Westbrook allowed 13 steals in 16 attempts. Runners succeeded in their five steal attempts against Edwin Jackson.

Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Kyle McClellan and (in the past) Adam Wainwright did a solid job of checking runners. Pitchers play a role in controlling the running game and have to give Molina a fair chance to snuff out steal attempts.

I consider 2011 to be an aberration for Molina. The 39 percent caught-stealing rate from 2005-2010 takes in a much larger sample size and is certainly more indicative of his true effectiveness.

No major-league catcher can match Molina's overall ability to suppress a running game. Whether it's because of his strong arm, quick release or the fear factor, teams are reluctant to take liberties with him.

Last season runners pursued only 61 steals on Molina, the fewest number of attempts against any big-league catcher.

In Molina's seven full seasons as the Cardinals' starting catcher, opponents have averaged only 52 steal attempts a season. And keep in mind that he's been working more than 1,000 innings a season. Only 52 attempts per 1,000 innings is a startling number. It's a sign of immense respect; Molina's mere presence is intimidating.

I don't question Molina's defense going forward. The more pertinent questions: Can Molina sustain his improved offensive production? And will he hold up physically?

The conditions are favorable. Molina's peak season on offense came in his age 29 season, which makes him something of a late bloomer. And we have to take a look at the famous Molina bloodlines. Endurance wasn't an issue for Yadier's older brothers, Bengie and Jose.

Bengie Molina retired after his age 35 season. He didn't put up a double-digit home run total until age 28, and hit 20 homers at age 34. Bengie's best offensive years came in his age 30 and age 31 seasons, and he remained durable behind the plate until the end of his career.

While more of a part-time player, Jose Molina is still active and turns 37 this season. His finest offensive years occurred in his age 32 and age 36 seasons.

Among the three Molina brothers, Yadier is the most talented and athletic. I see no obvious reason to fear a dramatic decline.

Again, I don't know what Molina is looking for. Is it a five-year contract? Would he settle for four years? Either way, the Cardinals are in position to handle it.

If Molina's annual value comes in at about 3.5 wins, he's worth an estimated $60 million over four seasons according to the credible formula used by Fangraphs.com. Even at a more conservative level, 2.5 wins, Fangraphs pegs Molina at about $38 million over four years.

Molina will make $7 million this season and will be 30 at the start of 2013. It's reasonable to assume the Cardinals can expect four or five good seasons from Molina after he reaches age 30.

There are no certainties, but even if Molina comes in at an average between $10 million to $12 million a season, the cost seems to be in line with his projected value.

The Cardinals aren't burdened by many long-term salary obligations and have plenty of payroll space to accommodate Molina's next contract. Again, he could be dead set on exploring free agency and leaving town. Who knows? But if there's a realistic chance of getting Molina locked in now, the Cardinals should make a legitimate effort.

Molina's price is unlikely to go down. If anything, the price will probably escalate. In the free-agent market, the Cardinals would be vulnerable to a raid by a goofy, impulsive owner who will happily overpay Molina to get him out of St. Louis.