The Cardinals unofficially begin a new era when pitchers, catchers, hopes and dreams report to spring training.

After a roiling offseason of change, 2012 should be one of the more compelling seasons of the modern era for the Cardinals franchise. I can't wait to see how this magical mystery tour turns out.

Albert Pujols lost his St. Louis halo and became an Angel. Manager Tony La Russa is retired. Pitching coach Dave Duncan resigned for family reasons. Three strikes, but are the Cardinals out?

Pujols, La Russa and Duncan played major roles in delivering one of the most accomplished runs in team history. The loss of production, consistency and wisdom is difficult to quantify in advance.

When the Cardinals hired La Russa and Duncan before the 1996 season, Bill Clinton still was in his first term in the White House, the Fox News Channel did not exist, Tupac Shakur still was alive and Jackie Joyner-Kersee was busy preparing for her final competition in the Olympics.

Stability and continuity — a Cardinals hallmark for the last 16 seasons — have given way to a fascinating baseball experiment.

Rookie manager Mike Matheny hasn't spent a day in the majors as a coach or manager. How will he do? Answers are elusive. There are few historical references to draw from, and none are particularly relevant.

About the only comparison that comes close is the Cardinals' hiring of Red Schoendienst as manager in 1965. Red took over a defending World Series champion, and it was his first managing job. But it's not a Matheny match.

Schoendienst, a coach for the 1964 Cardinals, at least had the benefit of a full year of big-league coaching experience before taking over the top job. And even before 1964, Schoendienst served for a time as a player-coach under manager Johnny Keane.

In Schoendienst's first season, the 1965 Cardinals went 80-81. They improved to 83-79 in 1966, then won consecutive National League pennants (and a World Series) in 1967-68.

A first-time manager hasn't won a World Series since Arizona's Bob Brenly in 2001.

Matheny has four things going for him in my opinion:

• No. 1: Matheny inherited good talent. This isn't a rebuilding situation. The Cardinals still have the horses to prevail in a weakened NL Central.

• No. 2: Matheny enters with respect earned during his 13-year career as a smart, tough major-league catcher. He developed leadership skills along the way. The positive intangibles are there.

• No. 3: Cardinals fans like Catch 22 and view him as a favorite son. Matheny is not an outsider. He is a member in good standing in the Cardinals' family and the St. Louis community.

Replacing a successful and legendary manager never is easy. The new guy usually takes a hit in the initial comparisons. But Cardinals fans probably will be patient with Matheny because he's popular. Matheny should receive the kind of grace period and good will that wouldn't be extended to a stranger from the outside.

• No. 4: There's something that I call the Earl Weaver Factor.

I'll explain this one.

Weaver, the Baltimore Orioles Hall of Fame manager, retired after the 1982 season. I helped cover the 1983 Orioles for a Baltimore newspaper, and the '83 Orioles were determined to succeed from the first day of spring training.

The Orioles certainly respected Weaver but were bothered by the widespread belief that they won because of him, and couldn't win without him.

The players were irritated by the volume of Weaver-related questions in the spring of '83 and made it their cause to hush the skeptics. This was a highly motivated group; the '83 Orioles had something to prove. And that they did, winning the World Series under their new manager, the otherwise forgettable Joe Altobelli.

The same dynamic could be in place in St. Louis this season. But it isn't just the manager we're talking about. I'm thinking the remaining Cardinals will be fired up to show the baseball world they can survive and thrive in a life without Pujols.

I haven't had the chance to talk to Cardinals players about this, and I wouldn't expect them to be impolite when asked about the value of Pujols, La Russa or Duncan. But I'm confident that this is a prideful team that will want to maintain the high standards.

If the Cardinals fall apart in 2012, we'll see predictable story lines: Pujols was responsible for the past success; the Cardinals went soft without La Russa's fierce competitiveness and leadership; the pitchers were lost without Duncan's expert supervision.

Never mind if it's true. The Cardinals could come up short in 2012 for any number of reasons, including the potential personnel miscalculations of GM John Mozeliak or an outbreak of injuries to a roster that relies on several key players age 34 or older.

The health and viability of starting pitcher Chris Carpenter, first baseman Lance Berkman, shortstop Rafael Furcal and outfielder Carlos Beltran loom as critical factors in determining success or failure.

Younger players must also hold up. That list includes starting third baseman David Freese, starting pitcher Adam Wainwright, outfielder Allen Craig and catcher Yadier Molina.

Still, if this season doesn't go well, the postmortem will include prominent and frequent references to Pujols, La Russa and Duncan. We'll hear a lot of media and fans chirping about the Cardinals' failure to function at a high level after the devastating losses of Pujols, TLR and Duncan.

We'll also hear similar cackling during the inevitable bad stretches of baseball that occur during a 162-game season. You can count on that.

All of this should make for a long and interesting trip through the spring and summer. I could be wrong, but I expect the 2012 Cardinals to be motivated by the challenge of shutting everyone up as they rally around the rookie manager.