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Should the Cardinals be looking for starting pitching?
Let's have a go ...
* First, there's Jake Westbrook. Can't figure him out. At all. We've seen Westbrook duel Philadelphia's Cliff Lee and win. We've seen him pitch masterfully in shutting down Cincinnati at Busch Stadium on April 24. He threw 8 shutout innings at Kansas City. And Friday we watched Westbrook throw 7 shutout innings at Tampa Bay. But Wednesday night against the Reds at Busch Stadium? Dude gave up 5 runs on his first 12 pitches of the game. He was shredded for 7 earned runs in 4.1 IP. This is an extreme pitcher. In the 10 games started by Westbrook that have been won by the Cardinals, his ERA is 2.43. In the eight games started by Westbrook that have been lost by the Cardinals, his ERA is 10.64. You simply do not know what to expect when he goes out there. But this is a more bottom-line stat: Only 6 of Westbrook's 18 starts have qualified as quality starts. That's the lowest percentage among Cardinals starters. Right now Westbrook ranks 55th in the NL among qualified starters in ERA (5.34) and he is at the very bottom of the rankings in batting-average against (.301), hits allowed per nine innings (10.78), and strikeout-walk ratio (1.30). He's third from the bottom in base runners per nine innings (14.56)
* And then there's Kyle McClellan. It was always going to be a challenge, converting him from reliever to starter. He got off to a really nice start, even if he lived on the edge with elevated walk rates, and home-run blasts. Through May 8, McClellan was 5-0 with a 3.30 ERA. Since then, he's 1-5 with a 5.17 ERA and the stretch included a stint on the DL with a hip injury. Delivery flaws were corrected to ease the strain on the hip. But since returning from the DL, McClellan is 0-3 with a 5.48 ERA, with 37 base runners allowed in 23 innings. Unless something changes soon, it's fair to say that McClellan is trending the wrong way. And it is also fair to wonder if the Cardinals will consider moving McClellan to the bullpen, to help an unsettled area of the team.
* But how can the Cardinals seriously think about moving McClellan or replacing Westbrook if they don't have more appealing options? Some would suggest Lance Lynn or even Brandon Dickson. But I don't see that happening. I doubt that pitching coach Dave Duncan would be comfortable breaking in a rookie starter at this stage of the season. Moreover, Duncan is excited over Lynn's potential to become a significant late-inning weapon in the bullpen. As for Westbrook, the Cardinals need to stick with him. We've seen what he can do when he's on. I don't know what the secret is to Westbrook finding his consistency, but he needs to locate it, and soon.
* So far this season the Cardinals' starters are tied for 12th in the 16-team NL in quality starts, with 44. Last season the rotation was tied for 4th in the NL with 94 QS. And they were 5th in 2009, with 88 QS. This is the Adam Wainwright Factor. Wainwright had 50 quality starts in 2009-2010, most in the NL over the two seasons.
* I'm a bit surprised to see that the Cardinals' still rank rather well, tied for 4th in the NL, in innings pitched by starters. But the recent trend is troubling. Since May 22, Cardinals have lasted six innings or fewer 28 times in 41 games. And Chris Carpenter provided six of the 13 starts that went beyond 6 innings. (The others: Kyle Lohse two, Jaime Garcia two, Westbrook two, and McClellan one.)
* Cardinals GM John Mozeliak has a shopping list. He's been focused on adding relief help. A veteran anchor for the 8th or 9th inning. The Cardinals would also be wise to secure a more reliable lefty specialist. But it's reasonable to suggest that the GM should at least explore the trade market for starters. I think we can virtually count on Reds GM Walt Jocketty to acquire a starter by the July 31 deadline.
Moving On ...
* Really impressed by the first two relief appearances turned in by Brandon Dickson. Looks like a veteran out there. But again, we're talking about only two appearances.
* If this is it for rookie catcher Tony Cruz -- he'll likely be sent down to AAA Memphis when the Cardinals activate Gerald Laird -- the young guy can head back to the minors with a good feeling. He made a positive impression and earned a lot of respect within the Cardinals organization for the way he caught, hit, and fit.
Moving On ...
* Unlike some in the media, I'm not prepared to have a ticker-tape parade over the Blues' signings of veteran center Jason Arnott and veteran right wing Jamie Langenbrunner. Both players are on the downward slope of their careers, and their offensive production is in decline. But I do like the signings for these reasons:
1. These are winning players with Stanley Cup championships on their career resumes. This part has been overstated; it's not as if these two players are going to lead this group to the Stanley Cup. And the Blues have in the past signed other veterans with Stanley Cup experience and it didn't make a difference. Still: hockey is a character sport. It still matters. These elder statesmen will upgrade the leadership. They'll hold the younger players accountable. I don't think Langenbrunner -- a highly respected leader in this league -- or Arnott will tolerate much if any foolishness. And a leadership void has been an issue in the Blues locker room. These Blues "kids" aren't kids. They're men. So grow up already. Watch Langenbrunner (especially) to see how a real pro behaves.
2. The Blues needed a third-line center. If nothing else, Arnott is an adequate third-line center. He's probably more than that. But are his 30-goal seasons a thing of the past? Two years ago Arnott dropped to 19 goals. Last season it was 17. (He had some injuries.) Arnott was energized by a trade to Washington. He may be capable of giving the Blues more than 17 or so goals. And he has a rep for keeping himself in terrific shape. In any case, Arnott should be better as a No. 3 center than what the Blues had there last season, primarily Jay McClement, and Vlad Sobotka. And we have to like Arnott's size (6-5, 220 pounds.)
3. The Blues have improved their depth with the signings of Langenbrunner and Arnott and the signings of fourth-line center Scott Nichol and defenseman Kent Huskins. Again, I'm not handing out the party favors. I hope the Blues will one day have better ownership that's willing and able to spend more money to land elite talent instead of settling for what's left on the market. But depth was a serious problem for the 2010-2011 St. Louis Blues. They struggled to overcome injuries. These additions should provide a cushion.
Blues GM Doug Armstrong has done well here. Restrained and limited by the realities of a lame-duck owner and a financially-challenged franchise, Armstrong worked through the budget handcuffs to enhance the team's depth and competitive character. That warrants respect.
Thanks for reading ...
-Bernie

