If you were searching for the ideal replacement for Albert Pujols, then move along, because you won't find it. There is only one Pujols, and he's gone.
The Cardinals, however, did a good job of compensating for Pujols' free-agent defection by agreeing to terms with outfielder Carlos Beltran on a two-year contract worth $26 million. If Beltran's knees hold up, he's likely to restore a solid percentage of the production that vanished when Pujols signed with the Los Angeles Angels.
This was an aggressive, smart move by the Cardinals.
Aggressive because they successfully recruited one of the top five position players available on the free-agent market this offseason. Aggressive because they floated a high annual average value of $13 million a year to entice Beltran to St. Louis. And aggressive in a way that should silence those who predicted chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. would go cheap instead of throwing down serious money in response to Pujols' departure.
The Cardinals were smart in the way they structured the deal. As a tradeoff for the larger yearly salary and a no-trade clause, the Cards limited their investment to two seasons. If Beltran exeperiences health issues, the Cardinals will limit their liability to two years instead of three. And they were smart because there's a more urgent need for Beltran's bat given Allen Craig's uncertain availability for the first part of the 2012 season as he rehabs from knee surgery.
There's no such thing as a no-risk move in signing a player, soon to be 35, who played in only 145 of a possible 324 games over the 2009 and 2010 seasons because of the troublesome right knee. But Beltran made a robust comeback for the Mets and the Giants in 2011. He batted .300 with 22 homers and posted a combined onbase and slugging percentage (OPS) of .910 that ranked ninth in the NL.
According to Baseball-Reference's OPS+ statistic, which adjusts for ballpark factors and league scoring rates, Beltran's OPS+ of 156 in 2011 represented the top hitting performance of his career.
Beltran has lost speed and agility, but there's nothing creaky about his bat. Beltran had a slightly higher OPS than Pujols in 2011 despite taking roughly half of his at-bats in two pitcher-friendly home ballparks that suppress offense. (Citi Field in New York and AT&T Park in San Francisco.)
So why do I say that Beltran has a good chance to help the Cardinals fill the void left by the runaway first baseman? Pardon our sabermetrics, but in 2011 Beltran was good for 4.7 wins above a replacement-level player. Pujols was worth about 5.1 wins over replacement level last season.
This, of course, presumes that Beltran's offensive skills will remain intact in 2012. (Let's analyze his 2013 prospects when we get there.) Beltran offered legitimate evidence of quality in 2011. His line-drive rate and contact rate were strong again, and there was no indication of reduced bat speed. The switch-hitting Beltran proved highly capable of punishing fastballs, batting .360 against the pitches last season.
The respected ZiPS projection system has Beltran hitting .281 with a .366 onbase percentage and a .478 slugging percentage in 2012. ZiPs also forecasts a decline for Beltran starting in 2013, and that's why a short-term deal makes sense.
I'm getting a kick out of listening to a few whiners that believe it's a mistake to sign Beltran. They cite worries over his knee and age.
Yeah, it's crazy to bring in a mid-30s hitter that plays on a repaired knee.
Just ask Lance Berkman about that.
Berkman's signing by the Cardinals before the 2011 season was greeted with skepticism or derision. How quickly some forget. And unlike the timing of the Berkman signing a year ago, Beltran comes to the Cardinals after putting up terrific numbers in a very good season. Berkman struggled mightily on a sore knee in 2010 before rebounding with a big year in St. Louis last season.
Here's an obvious concern: can Beltran play adequate defense in center field? Earlier in his career Beltran was an exceptional center fielder. But his Fielding Bible rating in CF dropped dramatically in 2009, and again in 2010. But that's understandable to an extent, given the condition of his knee at the time.
When a healthy Beltran returned in 2011, the Mets and Giants used him exclusively in right field; the Fielding Bible rated Beltran as a plus defender in RF in 2011. Beltran is said to be enthused about having a chance to play center again, and has told friends that he expects improved mobility in 2012.
The Cardinals need Beltran in right because they aren't sure when Craig will return, or if he'll hold up all season. For the Beltran investment to pay off, he'll have to play at least part of the season in center field. How often can Beltran play there? How hard will the Cardinals push it?
As long as Beltran can take some shifts in center, the Cardinals will keep him busy enough to justify the investment. Beltran figures to get at-bats as a center fielder in place of Jon Jay against lefty starting pitchers. Beltran will start in right when Craig is down. He'll start in right when Craig needs a break. He'll start in right when Craig switches to first base to give Lance Berkman a day off. And Beltran can spell Matt Holliday in left field when necessary.
Beltran provides flexibility. He can bat anywhere from second to sixth in the lineup. (But he's been used most frequently at No. 3 in the lineup during his career.) Beltran is a legit switch-hitter that's produced good results against RH pitchers and LH pitchers. And when Beltran doesn't start, he'll be a valuable piece for late-inning matchups when the bullpen battles begin.
If the 2012 Cardinals are fortunate to make the playoffs, they can look forward to Beltran doing his thing. In 82 career postseason at-bats he's hit .366 with 11 homers, a .485 OBP, and an .817 slugging percentage.
Beltran may not be Pujols.
But if 2011 was an indication, Beltran doesn't have to be Pujols.
Being Carlos Beltran is plenty good enough.

