The relative quiet in the early days of baseball's free agent marketplace is certain to cause a lot of people to be nervous. Particularly because the anticipated bidding for Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols and Milwaukee Brewers big basher Prince Fielder has been slow to develop, most baseball folks aren't sure if this is the calm before an extravagant storm or a signal that no outrageous shopping sprees are lurking on the horizon.
Here in St. Louis, nearly a week has gone by since Cards owner Bill DeWitt Jr. and general manager John Mozeliak met with Dan Lozano, the agent for Pujols, in a much-anticipated meeting at the general managers' gathering in Milwaukee. The big surprise was that DeWitt and Mozeliak did not present Lozano with an expected upgrade on the original nine-year, $198 million deal that went on the table last January.
And now, as best we can determine, the Cardinals still have not presented a new contract proposal, which raises the obvious question: What the heck is taking so long?
Unless a new offer comes over the next week or so, it seems to me that it's business as usual for the organization, as it continues to utilize its standard negotiating strategy with Pujols. It's a curious and potentially risky practice that the organization has used to varying degrees of success.
The strategy?
It appears that they're going to sit and wait. Instead of aggressively pursuing Pujols, the Cardinals seem willing to let the process play out. Instead of being proactive, they're choosing to be reactive. Go out and see what the market is willing to pay, and we'll decide if we want to match it.
From a cold business perspective, you can understand this emotionless approach of not bidding against yourself. Until there is a legitimate counteroffer on the table, sit tight on your original offer. But when you're dealing with a franchise icon, a 31-year-old superstar who has carried your franchise to two World Series titles and three NL pennants — a rare talent who can justifiably be compared to the likes of Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Stan Musial — is it wise to take such a dispassionate approach?
By waiting it out, you run the risk of some other team deciding to go for broke on a monster deal that might knock Pujols off his feet. You also run the risk of offending your best player. Is it worth the risk to gamble that Pujols might take this negotiating strategy as an affront to all the achievements he has already racked up with the Cardinals?
A lot of my stat geek friends constantly carp at me via email about the danger in re-signing Pujols to a long-term deal. They cling to statistical comparisons of other great players that show why it's risky to re-sign Pujols to anything longer than a five-year deal. Well, allow me the opportunity to speak in a language you understand.
For every stat you can come up with that represents the risk in re-signing Pujols long term, I can offer stats that represent the reward in getting him re-signed with all due urgency.
Because of his Hall of Fame-like career numbers over his first 11 seasons, there aren't a lot of players to whom you can accurately compare Pujols. The names are all Hall-of-Fame types. So let's take a look at the players who reinforce the danger in paying great players big salaries in their "declining" years. You can surely point to the career numbers of men like Frank Robinson, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey and Willie Mays as examples. Robinson, Mantle and Griffey hit 30 or more home runs only once after they turned 32, Gehrig had two 30-homer seasons beyond 32. Only Mays enjoyed demonstrable success after age 32 with four seasons with 30 or more home runs.
But like I said, Pujols is in rarefied air. So you can rightly compare his career with three of the greatest names in baseball history who continued to excel well after age 32. Those names? How about Ruth, Aaron and Musial?
Between age 32 and 36, Musial averaged nearly 31 home runs and 111 RBIs, and his batting average never fell below .310. His power production did not fall off until he turned 37 (he never hit more than 19 home runs or drove in more than 82 runs over his final six seasons). "Hammerin' Henry" Aaron averaged 39 home runs and 103 RBIs between age 32 and 39, including four seasons with 40 or more home runs, seven of 30 or more homers, four seasons of 109 RBIs or more and six with 96 RBIs or more.
And the Babe? Ruth's eight-year power numbers during that 32-39 age span are sick: 44 home runs and 137 RBIs. Here are just a few quick samples of what he did between the age 32 and 39: age 32 —60 home runs, 164 RBIs, .356 average; age 33 — 54 homers, 142 RBIs, .323 average; age 36 — 46 homers, 163 RBIs, .373 average.
Just to make this perfectly clear, I'm a columnist. I am paid to have an opinion. I am expected to come to the table with a perspective and occasionally take a side in any number of compelling sports issues. I can't think of a bigger and more compelling issue on the St. Louis sports front than the negotiations for Pujols, perhaps the greatest baseball player of his generation.
So make no mistake. I want the Cards to re-sign Pujols, and I will keep beating that drum until they do offer him a deal that reflects his status as the game's best player or they announce their intention to let him go to a higher bidder.
This is my opinion and I'm not all that concerned if you don't agree with it. I'm not trying to change your mind. I'm only telling you what I think and I have the platform to beat this drum, so pardon me if I take every opportunity to do it.

