QUESTION: Albert Pujols is set to make his spring training debut today for the Los Angeles Angels. What do you expect from Pujols this season? Do you think his numbers could dip a bit as he adjusts to a new league, or do you think his numbers might rise now that he will no longer have any contract issues on his mind?
DERRICK GOOLD
The “new league” element of this question is interesting. The advent of interleague – and the forthcoming expansion of it – would seem to make this academic. All players play against all teams at all fields nowadays, so what’s the big deal about changing leagues. For a pitcher it means going from facing a DH to facing a pitcher and that’s got to be a factor. But for a hitter?
Why all we have to do is check those splits to see what Albert Pujols has done in the American League West and that’s where we learn ... it’s not much. Pujols, a three-time MVP who was the best opposing hitter to visit as many as three NL Central ballparks, has little experience out west. He has played in a grand total of nine regular-season games at AL West ballparks, and not one of those games came in the ballpark he’ll call home now for the rest of his career, Anaheim’s Angels Stadium. Pujols has played three games each in Oakland, Seattle and Texas (regular season), and overall he’s 7-for-37 (.189) with one homer (at Seattle) and a whopping six RBIs. Not much to go on there. Small sample size and all that.
Perhaps the better gauge then is park factor, which helps illustrate how much harder/easier it is to produce hits, runs and power in individual parks. The Rangers’ ballpark, where Pujols cranked three homers in a record-setting World Series game, is the best place to hit in the majors. By some measure, Busch Stadium was the hardest. Busch ranked 25th in runs, 27th in homers and last among the 30 teams in hitting. Angels Stadium wasn’t too much better: 27th in runs, 25th in homers, and 25th in hitting. Pujols is going from one pitcher-friendly park to another, and while he didn’t seem to have a problem hitting at Busch it does mean that as his career decline begins the ballpark isn’t going to be forgiving.
Here’s betting, Pujols is out to prove something this season. Maybe it’s the contract, maybe it’s the critics, maybe he’s still just mad about being drafted in the 13th round. Whatever the case, he’ll have a typical Pujols season with an average that hovers around .300 and power big enough to leave any park, even those out west in that other league.
RICK HUMMEL
Pujols may have trouble in the American League this year, if there isn’t some presence behind (and ahead of) him in the lineup. For the last 11 seasons, he has been hitting in front of the likes of McGwire, Edmonds, Rolen, Holilday and Berkman every year. He may not get many pitches to hit. I don’t think Pujols’ numbers here were affected by his contract.
JEFF GORDON
The American League is tougher, for sure, but I figure Albert has at least one more big push left. The same pride that drove him to greatness in St. Louis will drive him to prove he is worth the big money. But the story could be much, much different toward the back end of his decade.
LARRY BOROWSKY (Founder of Viva El Birdos and editor of “Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual”)
I don’t think adjusting to a new slate of opposing pitchers will be as big a challenge as adjusting to a new manager, new clubhouse dynamic, new media market, and new fan base. He’s going to be well outside his comfort zone in all the latter respects. The expectations are off the charts; if he’s hitting .280 at the All-Star break, as he was in 2011, he won’t have any backlog of credit and goodwill to fall back on in Anaheim.
Having said all that, I think he’ll have a monster year. Albert’s iron will has always been his most powerful asset. He’s going to be determined to prove that the Angels made a smart move and the Cardinals made a mistake. Frank Robinson had the best year of his career after switching leagues in 1966, winning the MVP for Baltimore. I won’t be surprised if Albert does the same thing for the Angels in 2012.
