QUESTION: With Shelby Miller being named the Cardinals minor league pitcher of the year for the second consecutive season, how close do you think the team’s top prospect is to arriving to the parent club here in St. Louis?
JOE STRAUSS
Miller requires a solid season at Memphis to refine assortment and to mature both on and off the field. Unlike previous oversold prospects – Wallace, Anderson, Reyes, et al – Miller has the goods to be an impact performer at the next level. However, he has also exhibited a stubborn streak not unlike Anthony Reyes by resisting suggestions that he commit more heavily to his secondary pitches.
Last summer’s off-field hijinx also illuminated maturity issues noticed well before an alcohol-related incident resulted in a brief suspension. Miller has the physical gifts to evolve into a No. 2, perhaps a 1A starter. But having seen the downside of rushing a much-hyped prospect (Rasmus) before he was emotionally equipped for a culture change, the club may err on the side of caution with Miller. I’d be surprised to see him starting in STL before 2013.
RICK HUMMEL
With further development this season, presuming Miller reaches Class AAA Memphis at some point, I would expect to see Miller with the Cardinals by at least Sept. 1, if not sooner. He will be in the 2013 rotation.
JEFF GORDON
The Cardinals should take a good look at him during spring training and let him hang with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright for a while. Given his polished stuff and his boundless confidence, he may only need a half season at Memphis before he is ready for fill-in work at the big league level. Barring injuries, he should be ready to serve some sort of regular Cardinal role by the start of the 2013 season.
LARRY BOROWSKY (Founder of Viva El Birdos and editor of “Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual”)
Miller is one of the top pitching prospects anywhere in the minor leagues. He was dominant in his 16 Double A starts last year, despite pitching in a league and ballpark that tend to favor hitters. He has three big-league-quality pitches (fastball, changeup, curve) and is advancing briskly along the path from thrower to pitcher.
But like a lot of young pitchers (Miller will be 21 next year), he reportedly still relies a little too much on his fastball, especially when he’s in trouble. Before he gets promoted to the big leagues, Miller will need to show that he can throw his curve for a strike at the knees on a 2-1 or 3-1 count, or locate his changeup close enough to the outside corner that big-league hitters will chase it (but not so close that they’ll clobber it).
He has only thrown 247 professional innings, and only 87 in the high minors; his single-season high for innings pitched is just 140, which occurred last year. I’d like to see him throw at least another 150 innings at Double and Triple A before he gets exposed to a big-league lineup. And I’d imagine the Cardinals don’t want to start his arbitration clock until they’re certain he’s ready.
In all likelihood we won’t see Miller at any point in 2012; it would only happen if he continues to make solid progress and there’s a pressing late-season need for him in St. Louis. But I do think he’ll be in the rotation in 2013 – that will ensure that Miller spends at least one season working with Chris Carpenter and Dave Duncan, who will both be in the final year of their contracts.
