QUESTION: Now that the Albert Pujols-imposed deadline has passed without the St. Louis Cardinals and Pujols reaching a resolution on a contract extension, what is your gut feeling on the chances that Pujols will still be playing in a Cardinals uniform come 2012?
DAN O’NEILL
No gut feeling, but I am hoping the Cardinals do not succumb to the numbers being discussed, if they are accurate. You can have Albert Pujols at $30 million per season for the next 7-10 years, I’ll take three players at $10 million per.
What kind of player can you have for $10 million. Here are a few who made less than $10 million for their services last season – Robinson Cano (Yankees), Tim Lincecum (Giants), Jimmy Rollins (Phillies), Josh Hamilton (Rangers). Scott Rolen (Reds), Corey Hart (Brewers), Evan Longoria (Tampa).
It is insane to give a player a long, multi-year contract for top dollar in baseball, and it has been proven over and over again. Just ask the Cubs.
Consider this: Alex Rodriguez has been the highest-paid player for some time now. Over a 17-year career, Rodriguez has been compensated nearly $265 million. Over that same time, teams he has played on have won one league championship and one World Series. Repeat, 17 years, 1 pennant, 1 World Series.
Want more? From 1946 to 1963, most of it in his prime, the Cardinals had Stan Musial in the middle of their lineup – STAN MUSIAL! Many of those years, Musial was the highest-paid player in the National League. During those 17 years, St. Louis did not win a single pennant.
Baseball fields nine players, not six, not five, not one. By not signing Pujols, the Cardinals will get a great slugger – supremely motivated to maximize his value – for one more season at a rate of around half that $30-plus million.
When it’s over, Pujols turns 32. If someone wants to commit $30 million per season to him through his middle and late 30s, have at it.
One other point worth making: A first baseman cannot possibly be the “best player in baseball.” Roger Freed played first base, as did Boog Powell and Dick Stuart. First base is where players like Musial played when they couldn’t play somewhere else anymore.
Pujols might be the most dangerous hitter in the game, and a fine all-around player. But the day a first baseman is the “best player” in he game is the day they should blow it up and start over again.
BRYAN BURWELL
Yes, I do believe he will be back with the Cardinals in 2012. The market is now in control of this situation, which is what the Cardinals wanted all along. They won’t be bidding against themselves, but as soon as the market is established they will meet his price.
JEFF GORDON
I’d still be surprised if he walked away. Perhaps a contender will want to overpay him for his twilight years. In that case, the Cards will lose their bet and Albert’s pride might drive him away. But it appears the Cards made a legitimate offer, which sends a positive signal to the Pujols camp. If the team succeeds this year, wouldn’t it take a dramatically better deal to draw him away?
LARRY BOROWSKY (Founder of Viva El Birdos and editor of “Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual”)
My feeling is he will sign elsewhere, with length of contract as the decisive issue. I can’t see the Cardinals offering more than 8 guaranteed years (ie, through Albert’s age-39 season), and they may not even be willing to go that far – 7 years may be their maximum. If 7 or 8 years is in fact the Cards’ maximum, I wouldn’t criticize them; that’s a rational position. But then it would only take one irrational club to lure Albert away with a 9- or 10-year guarantee. For players of Albert’s caliber, there is inevitably one team (at least) that gets carried away.
I’m making a lot of assumptions here, and they might (probably will) prove to be faulty. I would hope the last is the faulty one – i.e., maybe no team will be crazy enough to guarantee a 9th or 10th year (Albert’s age 40 and 41 seasons). If it plays out that way, it’s much easier for me to envision him staying in St. Louis.
