To play or not to play? That's the question, the eternal question it seems, when it comes to rookie quarterbacks. And with the 2010 regular season fast approaching, it's one the Rams are navigating with No. 1 overall draft pick Sam Bradford.
Is it best to sit for a while, and watch and learn? Or just start playing right away, and learn — sometimes literally — on the run?
Steve Spagnuolo typically looks back on his stints as an NFL assistant with the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants for help in making decisions as a head coach in St. Louis. And this was no different.
"I talked with Coach (Tom) Coughlin about Eli (Manning)'s situation because I wasn't there," Spagnuolo said.
In 2004, the Giants started veteran Kurt Warner, released that offseason by St. Louis, in the first nine games. Manning, the No. 1 overall pick in that year's draft, took over in Game 10.
"It's about the same thing as what happened with Donovan (McNabb)," Spagnuolo said.
Spagnuolo was on Andy Reid's staff in Philadelphia when McNabb broke into the league in 1999 as the No. 2 overall pick. Like Manning five years later, McNabb didn't become a starter until Game 10; journeyman Doug Pederson started until then.
The difference was that McNabb was sprinkled in earlier in the season, seeing spot duty off the bench in five of the Eagles' first nine games — a highly unusual practice in the NFL.
Spagnuolo also has consulted with coach John Harbaugh in Baltimore on the process that went into playing Joe Flacco as a rookie; and with coach Mike Smith in Atlanta on Matt Ryan. Both quarterbacks entered the league as first-rounders in 2008.
"John kind of fell into his (decision)," Spagnuolo said. "Because they were doing about what we're doing right now, and then Troy Smith got hurt. Troy Smith was going to be the starter in the first game. And then when Joe Flacco came in and did so well, they never went back to Troy Smith."
In Atlanta, coach Mike Smith made his decision to go with Ryan late in the preseason.
"He kind of had the same system we're doing," Spagnuolo said. "It's just that they reached a point where they said, OK, this guy (Ryan) has exceeded whoever was there at the time."
Ryan beat out Chris Redman, who began camp that year No. 1 on the Atlanta depth chart.
So when it comes to playing rookie quarterbacks, Spagnuolo says, "There are a couple of different patterns, a couple of different models to go with."
Actually, more than a couple.
A new trend?
Recent NFL history is all over the map when it comes to playing quarterbacks who were first-round draft picks. There have been good quarterbacks who played a lot as rookies:
• Drew Bledsoe had 12 starts for New England in 1993.
• Peyton Manning had 16 for Indianapolis in '98.
• Ben Roethlisberger started 13 times for Pittsburgh in 2004.
And there have been good quarterbacks who didn't play much: Steve McNair (two starts), McNabb (six starts), Philip Rivers (zero) are examples.
Conversely, some bad quarterbacks played a lot as rookies: Rick Mirer (16 starts) and Joey Harrington (12 starts). And some didn't: Akili Smith (four starts) and JaMarcus Russell (one start).
"I think in the end it comes down to the kid, the situation, the need, and where you're at (as a franchise)," Rick Venturi said.
Now out of football, Venturi has been an NFL assistant coach-defensive coordinator for most of the past 30 years and twice was an interim head coach. So he has seen a lot of quarterbacks come and go.
"First of all, the maturity and intelligence of the kid is a huge factor." Venturi said. "I would say one of the things that's in common with the guys that have played a lot lately as rookies, their football intelligence was very, very high."
It may be too small a sample size to label as a trend, but there has been a significant spike in playing time for rookie QBs the past two seasons.
Over the past two decades, from the 1990 draft through the 2009 draft, 46 quarterbacks were taken in the first round. The first 41 draftees in that group, or those taken from the '90 through '07 drafts, averaged 5.8 starts as rookies.
But in the past two years, the five first-round quarterbacks taken averaged 13.2 starts as rookies.
Looking at it another way, from the '90 through '07 drafts only three first-round QBs started 15-plus games as rookies: Peyton Manning, Mirer, and Houston's David Carr.
That total has been matched in just the '08 and '09 drafts alone, with Flacco and Ryan starting 16 games as rookies in '08, and Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets starting 15 times as a rookie last season.
Matthew Stafford of Detroit, the No. 1 overall pick in '09, would've joined that group, but knee and shoulder injuries sidelined him for six games. He started the other 10 games. The fifth and final first-rounder in the '08 and '09 drafts, Josh Freeman of Tampa Bay, had nine starts as a rookie.
"There's more pressure to play guys earlier because of that financial commitment," said Trent Green, a Vianney High product who had a 15-year career as an NFL quarterback. "You're giving a guy $50 million (guaranteed) … you're going to play 'em."
A passing game
While agreeing that financial pressures play into using highly drafted quarterbacks early, young quarterbacks might simply be better equipped to play right away — and play well — in today's NFL, Dick Vermeil said.
Now retired, Vermeil's head-coaching career spanned parts of four decades in the NFL, including a Super Bowl championship stint in St. Louis. Like Venturi, he's seen a lot of QBs come and go.
The college game features more passing than it did 20, 30, 40 seasons ago. But Vermeil takes it a step further.
"They're coming out of high school further along," he said.
Gil Brandt, longtime Dallas Cowboys personnel executive, agrees emphatically. In the late 1950s, Brandt points out, SMU's Don Meredith was considered one of the more highly skilled passing quarterbacks in the college game.
"In three years at SMU, he threw 395 passes," Brandt said. "Last year, Case Keenum at Houston threw 700 passes."
Keenum completed 492 of 700 passes for the Cougars. It's just one telling example of how football has become a passing game.
"The greatest help for quarterbacks now is seven-on-seven (passing leagues) for these high school kids," said Brandt, who, among other things, works as an analyst for NFL.com and Sirius XM radio. "It's unbelievable what they do. And it also helps receivers. The day after school ends in Texas, on the following Monday, they start playing seven-on-seven."
It culminates in a seven-on-seven state championship played on the campus of Texas A&M.
"I think that this is the greatest thing as far as quarterback development," Brandt said. "Because of the fact that they throw so much, the accuracy has improved dramatically. I think the best Norm Van Brocklin ever had was 44 percent in college. I mean you look at these guys now, the accuracy is so much better."
Brandt's memory is pretty good. Van Brocklin, a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame and one of the best passers of his era, completed 45.6 percent of his college passes at Oregon. Nowadays, a completion percentage of 60 percent is considered normal.
Pass-oriented spread offenses are the rage in high school football. Show up at any summer football camp, and all the youngsters are lining up at wide receiver. (At least the ones who aren't playing quarterback.) Forty years ago at high school tryouts, they all lined up at running back and wanted to be the next O.J. Simpson.
Whether it's better training and development of quarterbacks or better scouting, there were fewer first-round busts at quarterback in the decade of the 2000s than in the 1990s. For every Carson Palmer, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Ryan, Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning in the 2000s, there seemed to be a Mirer, Andre Ware, Todd Marinovich, Dan McGwire, David Klingler, Heath Shuler, Jim Druckenmiller, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Cade McNown taken in the first-round in the 90s.
Why wait?
Again, some of the biggest success stories in the past decade didn't play much or at all as rookies — Palmer, Rivers, Rodgers and Chad Pennington didn't start a game as rookies.
"I tend to favor that," said Green, an eighth-round pick who made two Pro Bowls. "I think there's a big benefit to that."
Green actually had to wait five years before he became an NFL starter.
"Obviously, I wish I would've played sooner than five years," Green said. "But I think it definitely helped waiting a couple years because you just learn the speed of the game. You learn the terminology."
He cited the so-called "20-hour" rule in college that limits the amount of time players can spend on the game each week. Not so in the NFL.
"Everything's a lot more in depth, a lot more complex, there's a lot more game-planning and those kinds of things in the NFL," Green said. "There's a benefit to waiting, because you kind of get used to the pressure of, Number 1, just playing the game. Your coaches, your teammates, moving to a new city. Dealing with family. Dealing with media. Dealing with community commitments. Dealing with the marketing and the advertising, both from a team standpoint and the individual standpoint."
On the other hand, if you take a quarterback at the very top of the draft, you can make a compelling argument to play him right away. Venturi and others see that as the case with Bradford and the Rams.
"I see Bradford kind of as the same kind of guy as (Troy) Aikman and Peyton Manning," Venturi said. "Because you've got great skill level and you've got tremendous intelligence, and I think tremendous mental toughness. Now, that all had to be worked out (identified) before you took him. I don't think you're going to draft that guy first and give him everything if he's not excellent across the board. No minuses.
"And if you don't have a veteran established (backup) that's won a lot of games in the league, there's nothing to wait for. Just go. You've got a young team. You're going to be young all over. You might as well grow and get incrementally better every day that you're out there, and the only way you're going to do that is to play together."
Brandt says succinctly: "I think that I would start him."
Longtime NFL scout Dave Razzano, who has worked for franchises that went to five Super Bowls, said: "They have to play him. They don't have a choice. He's their best option. I just think you better shorten the routes up. You don't want to get the guy killed. They'd be crazy to have a vertical attack right off the bat."
Then again, the only person who has a vote is Spagnuolo.
