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Anheuser-Busch preparing to reject InBev offer, WSJ says
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
Anheuser-Busch Cos. may be preparing to stand and fight a takeover proposal from InBev of Belgium. Or it may be trying to bluff its way into a better offer.
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Anheuser-Busch is expected to unveil a long-awaited strategic plan to juice its stock price, according to the Journal. The plan could include a special dividend and the sale of assets, such as the company's Busch Gardens and SeaWorld theme parks. Anheuser-Busch could also increase its Blue Ocean cost-cutting initiative to slash $1 billion over the next four years, the Journal said. The brewer had originally targeted more than $400 million in savings. Ironically, such cost-cutting and divestitures would mirror moves that analysts say InBev might make if it takes over Anheuser-Busch. The Journal story appeared hours after InBev sent a third letter to Anheuser-Busch that reiterated its commitment to acquire the country's largest brewer. Analysts are divided as to whether the reported Anheuser-Busch plan would work, or even whether it is meant to be carried out. "Are you kidding me? This is not going to fly," Morningstar analyst Ann Gilpin said Wednesday evening. "The board didn't really have a leg to stand on to begin with. ... I think shareholders are going to look at (the plan) very skeptically." Gilpin said the trouble is that Anheuser-Busch appears to be contemplating a drawn-out restructuring plan, while InBev is holding out the promise of $65 a share in ready cash. Plus, buyers of theme parks will not give a desperate Anheuser-Busch a good price in a slow economy, she added. And if Anheuser-Busch could have cut $1 billion in costs, Gilpin asked, why didn't it plan to do it before? Joe Thompson, president of South Carolina consulting firm Independent Beverage Group, said "the best thing to do is for Anheuser-Busch to fight" the takeover. Thompson said he believes the Anheuser-Busch management team is better prepared than InBev to grow the A-B's core business in the U.S. over the next three to five years. But Tom Pirko, president of Buellton, Calif.-based industry consulting firm Bevmark, believes Anheuser-Busch's reported plan is actually a bluff to squeeze more money out of InBev. "Quite candidly, what they're doing doesn't even buy them any time," said Pirko. But Anheuser-Busch's plan is meant to reset InBev's offer at a higher level — perhaps $70 or even $75, he said. InBev faces some constraints of its own, Pirko said. InBev chief executive Carlos Brito "has to be very careful" not to damage Anheuser-Busch's assets — including its relationships with distributors, retailers and the general public — by going hostile. Pirko predicted "a real knock-down, drag-out series of discussions" between InBev and Anheuser-Busch on how to value the St. Louis company while avoiding a "disastrous" impasse. "It's in both parties' interest right now to move forward," he said. "In any negotiation, you start by saying no. ... It's the standard way the game is played." But if Anheuser-Busch overplays its hand, InBev is "prepared" to take its offer directly to shareholders in a hostile maneuver, according to the Journal. Anheuser-Busch may not be able to stop that train once it leaves the station. "We do not believe (Anheuser-Busch) has many takeover defenses, and the 'just say no' response will elicit a flurry of shareholder lawsuits," B. Craig Hutson, senior bond analyst with Gimme Credit, wrote in a research note Wednesday morning. If InBev does go straight to shareholders, the deal will "get done," said Gilpin. If InBev backs off, activist shareholders will throw Anheuser-Busch's incumbent board out of office next year and replace the board with directors willing to reopen talks with InBev, she predicted. On Wednesday morning, InBev continued to urge Anheuser-Busch to consider its nonbinding offer. InBev said that it has obtained committed financing from 10 banks for its approximately $47.5 billion cash bid and has already paid approximately $50 million in fees — a sum InBev said demonstrated its "resolve to consummate a combination with Anheuser-Busch." In the letter, Brito told Anheuser-Busch CEO August A. Busch IV that due diligence on the deal could be "finalized without delay." He continued: "As we have indicated previously, we are committed to entering into a constructive dialogue with you to achieve a friendly combination. We remain available to discuss our proposal with you. ... but we believe that time is of the essence." The $50 million in fees "suggests InBev won't go away," wrote Banc of America Securities analyst Bryan Spillane. Some investors had hoped billionaire investor Warren Buffett would lend some clarity on the merits of InBev's proposal. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is Anheuser-Busch's No. 2 shareholder, with about 5 percent of the company's shares. Some reports recently suggested Buffett supported the Belgian brewer's proposal, including one last week that said Buffett was to meet with Busch IV. But Buffett said Wednesday that he has not talked to the management of InBev or Anheuser-Busch about InBev's plan. He made the statement during an interview Wednesday morning on financial news channel CNBC. Asked what he thought of the proposal, Buffett quipped: "I think it's an interesting spectator sport at the moment." As to rumors that he had been spotted in St. Louis — by implication, to meet with Anheuser-Busch — Buffett said "there's obviously some double of me that's running around out there." jmcwilliams@post-dispatch.com314-340-8372 |
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