The region's employment picture is looking gloomy, especially for people who make things.

The St. Louis economy shed jobs in March and April, suffering its first year-over-year contraction since 2004, dragged down by tumbles in manufacturing and construction. Those sectors had been slumping for months, but were balanced out by growth in education, health care and transportation; as the economic slowdown took hold early this year, that growth faded.

It may rebound a bit, experts say, if the economy keeps crawling, but don't expect the 1 percent to 2 percent growth of recent years.

"The bad news is, the employment-growth picture is deteriorating," said Jack Strauss, an economics professor and head of the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting at St. Louis University. "But the good news is it's deteriorating less quickly than in most recessions."

Back in February, Strauss was predicting 0.4 percent employment growth in metro St. Louis — about 5,500 jobs — less than half the average of the last 16 years. Since then, the housing market has stayed down and its woes have begun to spread. But the good news, Strauss said, is that housing and construction are not particularly big parts of the St. Louis economy, at least when compared to the coasts, and the region remains strong in other areas like education and professional services. "I think we'll be modestly positive by the end of the year," Strauss said.

But that may be little comfort for those who work in construction and, particularly, in manufacturing, a sector that continues to ail. Factory jobs fell 2.6 percent in April and have dipped under 130,000 for the first time in decades.

And when they leave the factory, they're finding a tough job market. The unemployment rate climbed above 6 percent in January and has been there since.

tlogan@post-dispatch.com | 314-340-8291