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Soybean demand surges
(Mark Williams/P-D)ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
As farmers around the Midwest scramble to harvest their soybeans before potentially destructive weather strikes, forecasters are predicting a near-record soybean crop — and Asia is waiting for it. In recent weeks, China and Taiwan have committed to purchasing huge loads of U.S. soybeans, boosting expectations that export sales will reach a new high. China alone bought $7.3 billion in U.S. soybeans in 2008 and is expected to nearly double that this year. As of the beginning of this month, sales of soybeans to China soared to 12.5 million tons from last year's 7.7 million tons. "They've come on stronger and stronger," said Bob Callanan of the American Soybean Association. "Half of the soybeans we grow in this country we export. … Every fourth row we have is now going to China." Huge economic growth in China over the past decade has lifted an estimated 200 million people into the middle class, transforming food consumption. With more cash on hand, more Chinese are eating higher-priced foods, particularly meat from livestock raised on grains, usually a blend of soy and corn. Although China grows sufficient corn to feed growing demands for now, it requires soybean imports to feed its growing livestock industries. The country imports roughly two-thirds of its soybeans. "You're talking about a country with 1.3 billion people," Callanan said. "If each person ate just one more portion of chicken or pork each week, that's a huge increase in demand." The U.S. is the world's largest soybean producer, followed by Brazil, then Argentina. Drought conditions in South America, which harvests in the Northern Hemisphere's spring, diminished soybean stocks there, meaning buyers have been looking elsewhere to make up the difference. "They're buying more than they normally would, and they're doing it earlier," said Darrel Good, a crop market outlook specialist at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. "There's also speculation, and I think rightly so, that China is trying to build some inventory because of the scare we went through about a year and half ago with high prices and low supply." For Illinois, the second-largest soybean growing state, and Missouri, the sixth, the surge in demand has been a boon to grain farmers whose farms are yielding more beans. Between 2004 and 2008, the value of soybean exports from Illinois almost doubled, reaching $2.8 billion. Missouri experienced a similar surge, exporting $1.2 billion in 2008. The total value of U.S. soybean exports was $19.3 billion in 2008. Though farmers are paying more for inputs in recent years, this year could provide a nice payoff. "There's are so many factors that influence price," said Good. "But what we're seeing right now is a combination of larger sales to China, which is putting some upward pressure on prices, and we're seeing a late, slow soybean harvest because of the weather, that's also putting pushing prices higher." This week prices hovered around $10 per bushel, down roughly $5 dollars from the highs of 18 months ago when commodity grain prices were peaking, and up about $4 dollars from the 2004 national average. Earlier this month, trade delegations from China and Taiwan visited Missouri and Illinois to tour farms, meet farmers and talk with trade groups. Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon signed a trade agreement in Jefferson City with Taiwan saying the country agreed to buy up to 3.2 billion metric tons, or 110 to 118 million bushels, valued at roughly $1.4 billion over the next two years. Taiwan, the fifth-largest buyer of American soybeans, is an especially attractive market for U.S. growers. While the majority of the soybeans going to China is for feed, commanding a lower price, much of the soybeans exported to Taiwan are of higher quality, trade groups said. Taiwan has the highest per-capita soybean consumption and is willing to pay a premium for good soybeans. "Taiwan has been a great market for Missouri soybeans. Taiwan wants better quality, and they're willing to pay more money," said Dale Ludwig, executive director of the Missouri Soybean Association. "It's amazing what they can do with tofu. You can go to an event and they have 35 different soybean dishes." After China, the largest buyers of U.S. soybeans are Mexico, Japan and the European Union, followed by Taiwan. But China with its increasingly prosperous middle class will remain the biggest export market for the foreseeable future. Michael Frank, a vice president in Creve Coeur-based Monsanto crop protection division, recently returned from a stint running the company's business in China. More than 90 percent of U.S. soybeans contain Monsanto's herbicide-tolerant, or Roundup Ready, traits, as do the soybeans going to the Chinese market. "When you look at China as an export opportunity, each year the total grain consumed is growing three to five percent," Frank said. "But production gains are less than one percent. So that's why they're turning to countries where farmers have access to more modern technologies, and the U.S. farmer is really benefiting from that."
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