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InBev reportedly preparing bid for Anheuser-Busch
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
On a bright afternoon last month, August Busch IV and thousands of Anheuser-Busch Cos. employees met outside the packaging plant on Pestalozzi Street to celebrate the anniversary of Prohibition's demise in 1933. "We gotta get this toast going here!" said the company's chief executive, holding up a bottle of Budweiser. "Here's to our future … and another 75 fantastic years. Let's go get 'em!" But seven weeks later, a bigger competitor may be out to get Anheuser-Busch. Belgium-based InBev, the world's biggest beermaker, is preparing a takeover bid for St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch, according to an unusually detailed posting on a financial news blog run by the Financial Times. The information sent shares of Anheuser-Busch rocketing up nearly 8 percent Friday to a record high of $56.61. It was the biggest one-day gain in more than seven years. The FT Alphaville blog reported Friday that InBev is working on a $46 billion takeover of Anheuser-Busch, the maker of Budweiser and Michelob. The pitch could be valued at $65 a share — a 24 percent premium over Thursday's price. The Financial Times did not disclose its sources, and representatives of InBev and Anheuser-Busch declined to comment to the blog or to the Post-Dispatch. The blog said sources indicated "extensive work had been carried out on the transaction" but that InBev was "not about to push the button." If a deal happens, it could be revolutionary, capping a long run of mergers and buyouts in the global beer business. In the last decade, Anheuser-Busch has largely sat out of the consolidation game as other big brewers played high-stakes games of poker — creating brewing giants such as SABMiller PLC and InBev, which was molded from a merger between Interbrew of Belgium and AmBev of Brazil in 2004.
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Some analysts argue that Anheuser-Busch and InBev have vulnerabilities that a combination would solve. InBev is relatively weak in the United States, where Anheuser-Busch is deeply entrenched with a sprawling network of 600 distributors. Analysts have occasionally chided Anheuser-Busch for relying too heavily on the U.S. — a big and profitable but slow-growing beer market. Anheuser-Busch claims nearly half the U.S. market, but has a much smaller presence in markets such as Argentina, Brazil, Germany and Russia — all InBev strongholds. A merger with InBev could rescue Anheuser-Busch from a "slow fall from grace" and restore the company to global leadership, Citigroup analyst Philip Morrisey wrote last year. "There is not much else it can do outside of a global combination to improve its growth prospects." Anheuser-Busch and InBev already cooperate: Anheuser-Busch imports InBev beers including Stella Artois, Beck's and Bass Pale Ale into the U.S. Those beers have contributed most of Anheuser-Busch's recent growth as Budweiser and Michelob struggle to grow. Wall Street has periodically cheered rumors that Anheuser-Busch and InBev would combine. Together, the companies could boast a market capitalization of about $100 billion, combining A-B's strength in the U.S. with InBev's top position in emerging markets such as Bolivia, Paraguay, Serbia and the Ukraine. InBev draws about 37 percent of its revenue from Latin America, with another 14 percent coming from central and eastern Europe. But beyond the finances, a deal would have to account for major cultural differences. Anheuser-Busch's roots stretch back to 1852 and the family brewing empire of Adolphus Busch; the brewer hangs its hat on its brands, shrewd marketing and efforts to increase sales. Meanwhile, InBev's corporate culture reflects its identity as an international combination of acquisitions. It relies on inexorable cost-cutting and tough budgeting — a throwback to the company's efforts to scratch out value in the hardscrabble Brazilian beer market, said Credit Suisse analyst Carlos Laboy. "It would be possible to argue that a merger between the two would be inviting a culture clash disaster of epic proportions," Laboy wrote this week. Busch is not keen on selling out, reportedly telling distributors last month that the company would not be acquired on his watch. "For a proud and patriotic company like A-B, where the quality of life for employees is very high, we believe selling out to a foreign entity that focuses so hard on cost control as a way to create value would be extraordinarily difficult," according to Laboy. But it remains to be seen whether shareholders would allow Busch to stick to his guns if InBev launched a generous takeover bid. Although InBev might need the support of top A-B executives to execute a smooth transition, the Busch family does not own a controlling stake in the company — and may not have the power to stand in the way of a compelling deal. August Busch and his father, August A. Busch III, together owned only 1.7 percent of the company's common stock as of Jan. 31. Directors and executive officers owned 4.5 percent of the company. Shareholders have seen Anheuser-Busch's stock price languish, growing less than 3 percent in the last year before Friday. Anheuser-Busch's stock has been on a "round trip to nowhere for more than three years," said Laboy — one reason a merger "makes perfect sense" and will probably happen, he said. The Financial Times said InBev is planning a direct approach to August Busch IV. An informal appeal was made last October, but Busch insisted he would protect Anheuser-Busch's independence and wanted time to show his chops in his new job as CEO, according to the blog. Anheuser-Busch probably will "strongly resist InBev's overtures, believing that it can 'go it alone,'" according to Gimme Credit analyst B. Craig Hutson. Expecting another cool reception, the InBev team is preparing to send a follow-up letter to A-B's entire board, according to the blog. If Anheuser-Busch refuses to hold friendly talks, InBev may appeal directly to Anheuser-Busch's shareholders. The blog reported that a $50 billion finance package already has been provisionally arranged. Edward Jones analyst Jack Russo urged caution. "The first thing we need to stress is, it's just rumor today," he said. "I don't think you're going to hear anything for a while." jmcwilliams@post-dispatch.com | 314-340-8372 Write a letter to the editor | Subscribe to a newsletter | Subscribe to the newspaper reader comments
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