The National Retail Federation predicted on Tuesday that holiday shoppers will spend about 1 percent less than last year. Within hours of that announcement, my inbox was overloaded with messages from self-proclaimed experts and chain-store flacks promising to divulge what will be this year's most popular gifts.

Many of the e-mails proclaim, with varying degrees of flourish and fanfare, that the Christmas shopping season is nigh.

Like most normal people, I don't like thinking about Christmas shopping while green leaves still hang from trees. In fact, I'm sympathetic to the aims — if not the tactics — of a shadowy group called the Movement for the Containment of Christmas.

Not surprisingly, the MCC operates in England, where they take their holidays and their hooliganism seriously. The group has vowed to vandalize any shops that put up Christmas displays before Nov. 1, and this year it reportedly glued shut the locks of a charity shop that was selling Christmas cards in August.

That said, if you're looking to save money, this Columbus Day weekend might be a good time to start pricing big-ticket presents, says Edgar Dworsky, a consumer lawyer and the founder of ConsumerWorld.org.

"October seems to be a pretty good month to shop for bargain prices," said Dworsky. "Black Friday really is the best shopping day of the year. ... (But) it's smart to begin shopping now. If you see what you want at a great price, buy it."

With the economy deep in recession, and retailers struggling to survive, conventional wisdom says 'tis the season for a buyer's market. Consumers who wait to shop until December, or even the week before Christmas, ought to be rewarded. Their stockrooms stuffed with merchandise, distraught store managers will surely slash prices to fire-sale levels.

Right? Probably not.

That might have been the story at some shops in 2008 but only because retailers then weren't prepared for that year's 3.4 percent drop in Christmas sales. Stores make decisions about their holiday inventory many months in advance, and, as a result, they were caught off guard.

In 2009, retailers will be more cautious. So much so, in fact, that the recession could actually work against consumers. To understand why, you need to look at how the most popular gifts — including toys, clothes and electronics — get into this country.

Notwithstanding Santa's sleigh, most arrive by container ship. And, according to the National Retail Federation's monthly Port Tracker report, the nation's import cargo volume this year is expected to sink to the equivalent of about 12.5 million shipping containers. That's a 17.7 percent drop from last year's 15.2 million containers — a reduction that is considerably greater than the forecasted 1 percent drop in Christmas sales.

In other words, it looks like a big drop in inventory could outweigh a slight drop in sales. Merchandise won't be scarce, but overstock — that friend of bargain hunters everywhere — won't be high, either.

And that brings us back to shopping early. Dworsky said that consumers who plan to buy expensive gifts can take advantage of October's empty stores to hunt for deals and try their hand at haggling.

Dworsky suggests asking retailers if they'll give you a price-match refund if they drop the price between now and Christmas. Some credit cards offer this service, so check if yours does. And, he said, many of the biggest retailers allow salespeople to cut special deals for shoppers who come to the bargaining table prepared.

That means knowing what you want, and what other stores are charging for it. If you can find a better price online or elsewhere, a retailer might be willing to match it. You can do your homework the old-fashioned way by going from store to store, or you can use the Internet.

PriceSpider.com and PricePlease.com are good price comparison sites, and both allow users to set up e-mail alerts so they'll know whether the price for a specified product drops. If you don't have a specific make and model in mind, Dealnews.com might be the best site for hunting in-store and online bargains, coupons and sales.

Two other sites — bfads.net and blackfriday.gottadeal.com — compete to be the first to leak advertising for day-after-Thanksgiving sales. If you're shopping for something expensive, check these sites over the next few weeks to find out whether it might be a Black Friday doorbuster.

After that, there are just 28 days until Christmas. And who wants to think about shopping then?