MISSOURI SURVEY RESULTS – SEPTEMBER 2004
The Research 2000 Missouri Poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, MD from
September 13 through September 16, 2004. A total of 801 likely voters who vote regularly
in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers.
A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the
state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus
or minus 3.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the
“true� figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin
for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or region.
| PRESIDENTIAL RACE: |
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No Opinion |
| George W. Bush: |
53% |
41% |
6% |
|
| Men |
56% |
39% |
5% |
| Women |
50% |
43% |
7% |
|
| White |
59% |
36% |
5% |
| Black |
3% |
74% |
23% |
| Other |
4% |
71% |
25% |
|
| Democrats |
17% |
74% |
9% |
| Republicans |
90% |
7% |
3% |
| Independents |
52% |
42% |
6% |
|
| St. Louis Metro |
49% |
45% |
6% |
| Kansas City Metro |
49% |
46% |
5% |
| Northern |
48% |
45% |
7% |
| Central |
56% |
35% |
9% |
| Southeast |
58% |
35% |
7% |
| Southwest |
59% |
34% |
7% |
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No Opinion |
| John Kerry: |
46% |
44% |
10% |
|
| Men |
43% |
49% |
8% |
| Women |
49% |
39% |
12% |
|
| White |
41% |
50% |
9% |
| Black |
83% |
2% |
15% |
| Other |
76% |
5% |
19% |
|
| Democrats |
85% |
11% |
4% |
| Republicans |
8% |
77% |
15% |
| Independents |
48% |
42% |
10% |
|
| St. Louis Metro |
49% |
36% |
15% |
| Kansas City Metro |
50% |
36% |
14% |
| Northern |
49% |
37% |
14% |
| Central |
42% |
50% |
8% |
| Southeast |
41% |
53% |
6% |
| Southwest |
39% |
55% |
6% |
|
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No Opinion |
|
| JOHN EDWARDS: |
53% |
32% |
15% |
|
| MEN |
50% |
36% |
14% |
| WOMEN |
56% |
28% |
16% |
|
| WHITE |
49% |
36% |
15% |
| BLACK |
85% |
3% |
12% |
| OTHER |
82% |
5% |
13% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
89% |
8% |
3% |
| REPUBLICANS |
9% |
60% |
31% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
59% |
26% |
15% |
|
| ST. LOUIS METRO |
57% |
28% |
15% |
| KANSAS CITY METROO |
59% |
26% |
15% |
| NORTHERN |
57% |
27% |
16% |
| CENTRAL |
49% |
35% |
16% |
| SOUTHEAST |
47% |
36% |
17% |
| SOUTHWEST |
44% |
38% |
18% |
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No Opinion |
|
| DICK CHENEY: |
45% |
43% |
12% |
|
| MEN |
50% |
40% |
10% |
| WOMEN |
40% |
46% |
14% |
|
| WHITE |
51% |
38% |
11% |
| BLACK |
2% |
84% |
14% |
| OTHER |
2% |
83% |
15% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
8% |
80% |
12% |
| REPUBLICANS |
88% |
7% |
5% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
41% |
44% |
15% |
|
| ST. LOUIS METRO |
40% |
52% |
8% |
| KANSAS CITY METROO |
38% |
53% |
9% |
| NORTHERN |
41% |
51% |
8% |
| CENTRAL |
51% |
39% |
10% |
| SOUTHEAST |
53% |
36% |
11% |
| SOUTHWEST |
55% |
36% |
9% |
How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as President; excellent,
pretty good, only fair, or poor?
|
|
EXCELLENT |
GOOD |
FAIR |
POOR |
NOT SURE |
|
| ALL |
9% |
44% |
37% |
4% |
6% |
|
| MEN |
11% |
47% |
35% |
3% |
4% |
| WOMEN |
7% |
41% |
39% |
5% |
8% |
| |
| WHITE |
10% |
50% |
33% |
2% |
5% |
| BLACK |
1% |
3% |
71% |
16% |
9% |
| OTHER |
2% |
4% |
68% |
14% |
12% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
5% |
22% |
57% |
8% |
8% |
| REPUBLICANS |
14% |
69% |
13% |
2% |
2% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
7% |
42% |
43% |
4% |
4% |
|
| ST. LOUIS METRO |
6% |
39% |
42% |
6% |
7% |
| KANSAS CITY METROO |
5% |
38% |
43% |
7% |
7% |
| NORTHERN |
5% |
40% |
43% |
6% |
6% |
| CENTRAL |
12% |
54% |
29% |
3% |
2% |
| SOUTHEAST 12% |
55% |
27% |
2% |
4% |
| SOUTHWEST 13% |
55% |
25% |
2% |
5% |
If the 2004 election for
President were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket
of John Kerry and John Edwards, or the Republican ticket
of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney?
|
BUSH |
KERRY |
UNDECIDED |
|
| ALL |
49% |
42% |
9% |
|
| MEN |
53% |
39% |
8% |
| WOMEN |
45% |
45% |
10% |
|
| WHITE |
56% |
36% |
8% |
| BLACK |
4% |
85% |
11% |
| OTHER |
4% |
83% |
13% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
11% |
84% |
5% |
| REPUBLICANS |
90% |
3% |
7% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
48% |
40% |
12% |
|
| 18-29 |
46% |
43% |
11% |
| 30-44 |
55% |
37% |
8% |
| 45-59 |
45% |
46% |
9% |
| 60+ |
52% |
38% |
10% |
|
| UNION |
32% |
53% |
15% |
| NON-UNION |
57% |
37% |
6% |
|
| ST. LOUIS METRO |
44% |
45% |
11% |
| KANSAS CITY METROO |
43% |
46% |
11% |
| NORTHERN |
43% |
45% |
12% |
| CENTRAL |
54% |
39% |
7% |
| SOUTHEAST |
55% |
37% |
8% |
| SOUTHWEST |
58% |
35% |
7% |
What will be the single most
important issue in determining your vote for President?
|
ALL |
MEN |
WOMEN |
|
|
|
|
| Economy |
20% |
17% |
23% |
| War on terrorism |
17% |
21% |
13% |
| Homeland Security |
13% |
16% |
10% |
| War in Iraq |
12% |
10% |
14% |
| Health care costs/availability |
11% |
7% |
15% |
| Moral values |
10% |
11% |
9% |
| Education |
5% |
4% |
6% |
| Taxes/spending |
4% |
6% |
2% |
| Leadership |
4% |
5% |
3% |
| Social security |
2% |
2% |
2% |
| Medicare |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Other/DK |
1% |
-2% |
|
|
DEM |
GOP |
IND |
WHITE |
BLACK |
OTHER |
|
| Economy |
23% |
14% |
18% |
18% |
25% |
22% |
| War on terrorism |
7% |
25% |
19% |
19% |
7% |
11% |
| Homeland Security |
7% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
2% |
2% |
| War in Iraq |
20% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
21% |
18% |
| Health care costs/availability |
16% |
4% |
10% |
12% |
16% |
15% |
| Moral values |
4% |
14% |
7% |
11% |
2% |
1% |
| Education |
12% |
2% |
6% |
2% |
20% |
21% |
| Taxes/spending |
2% |
8% |
5% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
| Leadeship |
2% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
| Social security |
4% |
2% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
| Medicare |
2% |
-1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Other/DK |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
5% |
|
|
|
18-29 |
30-44 |
45-59 |
60+ |
UNION |
NON |
|
| Economy |
25% |
13% |
26% |
18% |
27% |
16% |
| War on terrorism |
17% |
25% |
13% |
18% |
10% |
21% |
| Homeland Security |
11% |
18% |
8% |
14% |
7% |
16% |
| War in Iraq |
15% |
8% |
15% |
10% |
20% |
8% |
| Health care costs/availability |
12% |
6% |
14% |
9% |
13% |
9% |
| Moral values |
5% |
12% |
3% |
10% |
5% |
12% |
| Education |
7% |
4% |
9% |
5% |
9% |
3% |
| Taxes/spending |
2% |
7% |
3% |
5% |
2% |
6% |
| Leadership |
2% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
2% |
5% |
| Social security |
1% |
1% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
| Medicare |
1% |
-1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
| Other/DK |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
|
|
STL |
KC |
NORTH |
CENT |
SE |
SW |
|
| Economy |
25% |
28% |
24% |
17% |
16% |
14% |
| War on terrorism |
14% |
15% |
16% |
21% |
24% |
24% |
| Homeland Security |
11% |
9% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
15% |
| War in Iraq |
14% |
15% |
13% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| Health care costs/availability |
14% |
13% |
13% |
6% |
5% |
4% |
| Moral values |
6% |
4% |
5% |
12% |
13% |
15% |
| Education |
7% |
8% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
| Taxes/spending |
2% |
3% |
4% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Leadership |
2% |
1% |
2% |
6% |
5% |
5% |
| Social security |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
| Medicare |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Other/DK |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
Based on what you have seen or heard about George W. Bush’s military
record, does it make you more or less likely to vote for him or does it have
no real effect on your vote?
|
MORE |
LESS |
NO EFFECT |
NOT SURE |
|
|
|
| ALL |
9% |
12% |
71% |
8% |
|
| MEN |
10% |
11% |
73% |
6% |
| WOMEN |
8% |
13% |
69% |
10% |
| |
| DEMOCRATS |
6% |
22% |
66% |
6% |
| REPUBLICANS |
13% |
3% |
79% |
5% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
7% |
11% |
68% |
14% |
Based on what you have seen or heard about John Kerry’s military record,
does it make you more or less likely to vote for him or does it have no real
effect on your vote?
|
MORE |
LESS |
NO EFFECT |
NOT SURE |
|
|
|
| ALL |
10% |
9% |
72% |
9% |
|
| MEN |
8% |
10% |
75% |
7% |
| WOMEN |
12% |
8% |
69% |
11% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
17% |
3% |
74% |
6% |
| REPUBLICANS |
4% |
16% |
71% |
9% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
9% |
8% |
70% |
13% |
Which candidate for President do you think would be more likely to
SUCCESSFULLY resolve the situation in Iraq, John Kerry or George W. Bush?
|
BUSH |
KERRY |
NOT SURE |
|
|
|
|
| ALL |
53% |
39% |
8% |
|
| MEN |
58% |
35% |
7% |
| WOMEN |
48% |
43% |
9% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
21% |
76% |
3% |
| REPUBLICANS |
87% |
4% |
9% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
52% |
37% |
11% |
Which candidate for President do you think can better handle the economy,
John Kerry or George W. Bush?
|
BUSH |
KERRY |
NOT SURE |
|
|
|
|
| ALL |
42% |
40% |
18% |
|
| MEN |
46% |
37% |
17% |
| WOMEN |
38% |
43% |
19% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
7% |
81% |
12% |
| REPUBLICANS |
82% |
4% |
14% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
35% |
33% |
32% |
Which candidate for President do you think cares more about people like you,
John Kerry or George W. Bush?
|
BUSH |
KERRY |
NOT SURE |
|
|
|
|
| ALL |
41% |
40% |
19% |
|
| MEN |
44% |
38% |
18% |
| WOMEN |
38% |
42% |
20% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
6% |
82% |
12% |
| REPUBLICANS |
83% |
4% |
13% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
34% |
32% |
34% |
|
Which candidate for President do you can better protect the United States
from another terrorist attack, John Kerry or George W. Bush?
|
BUSH |
KERRY |
NOT SURE |
|
|
|
|
| ALL |
55% |
34% |
11% |
|
| MEN |
57% |
33% |
10% |
| WOMEN |
53% |
35% |
12% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
14% |
66% |
20% |
| REPUBLICANS |
92% |
3% |
5% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
60% |
34% |
6% |
NATIONAL ISSUES |
|
| How would you rate the current
economic conditions: excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor? |
|
|
EXCELLENT |
GOOD |
FAIR |
POOR |
NOT SURE |
|
| |
8% |
35% |
40% |
9% |
8% |
|
| MEN |
10% |
37% |
38% |
8% |
7% |
| WOMEN |
6% |
33% |
42% |
10% |
9% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
3% |
24% |
53% |
18% |
2% |
| REPUBLICANS |
15% |
46% |
29% |
4% |
6% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
6% |
33% |
42% |
11% |
8% |
|
|
| How would you rate the future
prospects of the economy: will it get better, will it get worse or will it remain about the same as it is now? |
|
|
|
BETTER |
WORSE |
SAME |
NOT SURE |
|
|
| ALL |
27% |
9% |
57% |
7% |
|
|
| MEN |
29% |
7% |
59% |
5% |
|
| WOMEN |
25% |
11% |
55% |
9% |
|
|
| DEMOCRATS |
18% |
14% |
57% |
11% |
|
| REPUBLICANS |
33% |
5% |
55% |
7% |
|
| INDEPENDENTS |
29% |
10% |
58% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
| How do you describe the state of
your own personal finances these days: excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor? |
|
|
EXCELLENT |
GOOD |
FAIR |
POOR |
NOT SURE |
|
| |
10% |
39% |
40% |
8% |
3% |
|
| MEN |
13% |
42% |
37% |
7% |
1% |
| WOMEN |
7% |
36% |
43% |
9% |
5% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
6% |
33% |
46% |
12% |
3% |
| REPUBLICANS |
16% |
44% |
34% |
5% |
1% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
8% |
38% |
39% |
8% |
7% |
|
| Do you feel the country overall
is heading in the right direction or wrong direction? |
|
|
|
RIGHT |
WRONG |
NOT SURE |
|
|
|
| ALL |
44% |
48% |
8% |
|
|
| |
| MEN |
47% |
46% |
7% |
|
|
| WOMEN |
41% |
50% |
9% |
|
|
| |
| WHITE |
50% |
44% |
6% |
|
|
| BLACK |
6% |
74% |
20% |
|
|
| OTHER |
7% |
71% |
22% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| DEMOCRATS |
18% |
75% |
7% |
|
|
| REPUBLICANS |
77% |
8% |
15% |
|
|
| INDEPENDENTS |
35% |
61% |
4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 18-29 |
39% |
50% |
11% |
|
|
| 30-44 |
49% |
41% |
10% |
|
|
| 45-59 |
39% |
52% |
9% |
|
|
| 60+ |
47% |
45% |
8% |
|
|
| |
| UNION |
35% |
57% |
8% |
|
|
| NON-UNION |
48% |
43% |
9% |
|
|
|
| ST. LOUIS METRO |
38% |
54% |
8% |
|
|
| KANSAS CITY METRO |
38% |
55% |
7% |
|
|
| NORTHERN |
40% |
55% |
5% |
|
|
| CENTRAL |
50% |
40% |
10% |
|
|
| SOUTHEAST |
51% |
40% |
9% |
|
|
| SOUTHWEST |
52% |
39% |
9% |
|
|
