SURVEY RESULTS – OCTOBER 2004
The Research 2000 Illinois Poll was conducted from October 21 through October 23, 2004. A total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 3.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
U.S. SENATE RACE
|
|
|
FAVORABLE |
UNFAVORABLE |
NO OPINION |
|
BARACK OBAMA: |
65% |
28% |
7% |
|
| MEN |
62% |
32% |
6% |
| WOMEN |
68% |
24% |
8% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
88% |
9% |
3% |
| REPUBLICANS |
22% |
60% |
18% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
73% |
24% |
3% |
|
| WHITE |
59% |
35% |
6% |
| BLACK |
88% |
5% |
7% |
| OTHER |
84% |
7% |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
FAVORABLE |
UNFAVORABLE |
NO OPINION |
|
| ALAN KEYES: |
31% |
61% |
8% |
|
| MEN |
32% |
59% |
9% |
| WOMEN |
30% |
63% |
7% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
12% |
79% |
9% |
| REPUBLICANS |
49% |
44% |
7% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
39% |
54% |
7% |
|
| WHITE |
38% |
55% |
7% |
| BLACK |
5% |
83% |
12% |
| OTHER |
6% |
81% |
13% |
|
|
| QUESTION: If
the election for Illinoisí U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for
Barack Obama, the Democrat, or Alan Keyes, the Republican? |
|
|
|
OBAMA |
KEYES |
UNDECIDED |
|
| ALL |
67% |
25% |
8% |
|
| MEN |
65% |
28% |
7% |
| WOMEN |
69% |
22% |
9% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
91% |
4% |
5% |
| REPUBLICANS |
17% |
62% |
21% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
77% |
19% |
4% |
|
| WHITE |
61% |
32% |
7% |
| BLACK |
89% |
4% |
7% |
| OTHER |
85% |
6% |
9% |
|
|
| 18-29 |
71% |
22% |
7% |
| 30-44 |
64% |
27% |
9% |
| 45-59 |
70% |
22% |
8% |
| 60+ |
66% |
26% |
8% |
|
| CHICAGO/COOK |
79% |
16% |
5% |
| COLLAR |
42% |
50% |
8% |
| CENTRAL |
70% |
24% |
6% |
| SOUTHERN |
71% |
22% |
7% |
|
|
| QUESTION: As
you may know, Alan Keyes is a former Maryland resident recently who moved to
Illinois to run for the U.S. Senate. Does this make you more likely to vote
for Keyes, less likely to vote for Keyes, or does it have no real effect on
your vote? |
|
|
|
MORE |
LESS |
NO EFFECT |
NOT SURE |
|
| ALL |
4% |
39% |
51% |
6% |
|
| MEN |
5% |
38% |
53% |
4% |
| WOMEN |
3% |
40% |
49% |
8% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
2% |
48% |
46% |
4% |
| REPUBLICANS |
7% |
20% |
67% |
6% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
4% |
44% |
45% |
7% |
|
| WHITE |
4% |
35% |
56% |
5% |
| BLACK |
5% |
55% |
32% |
8% |
| OTHER |
3% |
53% |
35% |
9% |
|
|
| QUESTION: How
would you rate the performance of Rod Blagojevich as Governor; excellent,
pretty good, only fair, or poor? |
|
|
|
EXCELLENT |
GOOD |
FAIR |
POOR |
NOT SURE |
|
| ALL |
7% |
43% |
37% |
5% |
8% |
|
| MEN |
6% |
41% |
40% |
7% |
6% |
| WOMEN |
8% |
45% |
34% |
3% |
10% |
|
| DEMOCRATS |
11% |
54% |
27% |
3% |
5% |
| REPUBLICANS |
3% |
26% |
56% |
10% |
5% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
6% |
44% |
35% |
3% |
12% |
|
| WHITE |
4% |
37% |
45% |
7% |
7% |
| BLACK |
19% |
51% |
9% |
4% |
17% |
| OTHER |
16% |
46% |
11% |
6% |
21% |
|
| 18-29 |
8% |
46% |
37% |
5% |
4% |
| 30-44 |
4% |
45% |
39% |
7% |
5% |
| 45-59 |
9% |
50% |
36% |
4% |
1% |
| 60+ |
7% |
46% |
37% |
5% |
5% |
|
| CHICAGO/COOK |
9% |
52% |
30% |
3% |
6% |
| COLLAR |
4% |
28% |
55% |
11% |
2% |
| CENTRAL |
7% |
44% |
34% |
5% |
10% |
| SOUTHERN |
8% |
43% |
35% |
5% |
9% |
