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SURVEY RESULTS – OCTOBER 2004

The Research 2000 Missouri Poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, MD from October 22 through October 24. A total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 3.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or region.

GOVERNORS RACE


	FAVORABLE	UNFAVORABLE	NO OPINION

CLAIRE MCCASKILL:	51%	36%	13%

MEN	47%	41%	12%
WOMEN	55%	31%	14%

WHITE	49%	41%	10%
BLACK	66%	6%	28%
OTHER	62%	8%	30%

DEMOCRATS	83%	15%	2%
REPUBLICANS	14%	61%	25%
INDEPENDENTS	57%	32%	11%

18-29	53%	34%	13%
30-44	46%	42%	12%
45-59	56%	32%	12%
60+	48%	37%	15%

UNION	59%	27%	14%
NON-UNION	46%	43%	11%

ST. LOUIS METRO	55%	32%	13%
KANSAS CITY METRO	55%	31%	14%
NORTHERN	54%	32%	14%
CENTRAL	46%	42%	12%
SOUTHEAST	44%	42%	14%
SOUTHWEST	42%	46%	12%


	FAVORABLE	UNFAVORABLE	NO OPINION

MATT BLUNT:	53%	36%	11%

MEN	57%	33%	10%
WOMEN	49%	39%	12%

WHITE	61%	31%	8%
BLACK	3%	74%	23%
OTHER	5%	69%	26%

DEMOCRATS	22%	65%	13%
REPUBLICANS	86%	9%	5%
INDEPENDENTS	52%	34%	14%

18-29	50%	39%	11%
30-44	58%	29%	13%
45-59	48%	40%	12%
60+	54%	33%	13%

UNION	43%	45%	12%
NON-UNION	55%	28%	17%

ST. LOUIS METRO	49%	41%	10%
KANSAS CITY METRO	47%	42%	11%
NORTHERN	48%	40%	12%
CENTRAL	55%	31%	14%
SOUTHEAST	57%	28%	15%
SOUTHWEST	59%	28%	13%


QUESTION: If the 2004 election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Claire McCaskill, the Democrat, or Matt Blunt, the Republican?

	BLUNT	MCCASKILL	UNDECIDED

ALL	48%	46%	6%

MEN	52%	43%	5%
WOMEN	44%	49%	7%

WHITE	55%	41%	4%
BLACK	5%	77%	18%
OTHER	7%	73%	20%

DEMOCRATS	11%	83%	6%
REPUBLICANS	88%	9%	3%
INDEPENDENTS	44%	46%	10%

18-29	43%	50%	7%
30-44	54%	39%	7%
45-59	41%	54%	5%
60+	51%	43%	6%

UNION	34%	57%	9%
NON-UNION	56%	40%	4%

ST. LOUIS METRO	43%	51%	6%
KANSAS CITY METRO	42%	51%	7%
NORTHERN	42%	50%	8%
CENTRAL	58%	39%	3%
SOUTHEAST	58%	37%	5%
SOUTHWEST	59%	37%	4%



QUESTION: What will be the single most important issue in determining your vote for Governor?

	ALL

Health care	15%
Security	14%
Economy/jobs	14%
Moral values	13%
Values of candidate	10%
Education	9%
Taxes/state spending	9%
Roads/transportation	7%
Experience of candidate	7%
Crime/drugs	1%
Other/DK	1%

U.S. SENATE RACE


	FAVORABLE	UNFAVORABLE	NO OPINION

CHRISTOPHER “KIT” BOND:	56%	40%	4%

MEN	59%	38%	3%
WOMEN	53%	42%	5%

WHITE	64%	34%	2%
BLACK	6%	71%	23%
OTHER	8%	68%	24%

DEMOCRATS	17%	74%	9%
REPUBLICANS	88%	9%	3%
INDEPENDENTS	61%	36%	3%

18-29	50%	42%	8%
30-44	60%	33%	7%
45-59	53%	43%	4%
60+	59%	38%	3%

UNION	41%	56%	3%
NON-UNION	64%	32%	4%

ST. LOUIS METRO	46%	44%	10%
KANSAS CITY METRO	47%	42%	11%
NORTHERN	49%	46%	5%
CENTRAL	59%	35%	6%
SOUTHEAST	63%	32%	5%
SOUTHWEST	64%	33%	3%



	FAVORABLE	UNFAVORABLE	NO OPINION

NANCY FARMER:	44%	28%	28%

MEN	42%	30%	28%
WOMEN	46%	26%	28%

WHITE	41%	32%	27%
BLACK	63%	4%	33%
OTHER	60%	7%	33%

DEMOCRATS	71%	13%	16%
REPUBLICANS	12%	44%	44%
INDEPENDENTS	46%	26%	28%

18-29	46%	27%	27%
30-44	40%	32%	28%
45-59	47%	25%	28%
60+	41%	30%	29%

UNION	56%	21%	23%
NON-UNION	37%	32%	31%

ST. LOUIS METRO	54%	19%	27%
KANSAS CITY METRO	53%	19%	28%
NORTHERN	54%	19%	27%
CENTRAL	35%	37%	28%
SOUTHEAST	33%	37%	30%
SOUTHWEST	32%	39%	29%


QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of Christopher “Kit” Bond as U.S. Senator?


	EXCELLENT	GOOD	FAIR	POOR	NOT SURE

ALL	9%	44%	36%	6%	5%

MEN	11%	46%	35%	6%	2%
WOMEN	7%	42%	37%	6%	8%

WHITE	11%	50%	34%	3%	2%
BLACK	2%	11%	54%	18%	15%
OTHER	3%	13%	50%	11%	23%

DEMOCRATS	3%	28%	59%	8%	2%
REPUBLICANS	18%	65%	9%	3%	5%
INDEPENDENTS	8%	38%	42%	3%	9%

18-29	7%	38%	40%	6%	9%
30-44	15%	50%	28%	3%	4%
45-59	6%	37%	40%	11%	6%
60+	11%	47%	33%	6%	3%

UNION	7%	35%	45%	9%	4%
NON-UNION	11%	50%	30%	4%	5%

ST. LOUIS METRO	5%	39%	43%	9%	4%
KANSAS CITY METRO	6%	38%	43%	8%	5%
NORTHERN	5%	40%	42%	7%	6%
CENTRAL	10%	47%	35%	5%	3%
SOUTHEAST	9%	46%	32%	4%	9%
SOUTHWEST	10%	48%	32%	2%	8%


QUESTION: If the 2004 election for Missouri’s U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Nancy Farmer, the Democrat, or Christopher “Kit” Bond, the Republican?


	BOND	FARMER	UNDECIDED

ALL	56%	40%	4%

MEN	59%	38%	3%
WOMEN	53%	42%	5%

WHITE	63%	35%	2%
BLACK	4%	76%	20%
OTHER	7%	71%	22%

DEMOCRATS	18%	76%	6%
REPUBLICANS	89%	5%	6%
INDEPENDENTS	60%	37%	3%

18-29	52%	44%	4%
30-44	62%	32%	6%
45-59	51%	47%	2%
60+	58%	34%	8%

UNION	44%	54%	2%
NON-UNION	63%	32%	5%

ST. LOUIS METRO	50%	47%	3%
KANSAS CITY METRO	49%	46%	5%
NORTHERN	51%	45%	4%
CENTRAL	60%	33%	7%
SOUTHEAST	61%	33%	6%
SOUTHWEST	62%	32%	6%

STATE RACES:



QUESTION: If the 2004 election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, would you vote for Bekki Cook, the Democrat, or Peter Kinder, the Republican?
	COOK	KINDER	UNDECIDED

ALL	47%	40%	13%

MEN	44%	45%	11%
WOMEN	50%	35%	15%

DEMOCRATS	83%	6%	11%
REPUBLICANS	8%	78%	14%
INDEPENDENTS	50%	38%	12%


QUESTION: If the 2004 election for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote for Robin Carnahan, the Democrat, or Catherine Hanaway, the Republican?


	CARNAHAN	HANAWAY	UNDECIDED

ALL	47%	39%	14%

MEN	44%	43%	13%
WOMEN	50%	35%	15%

DEMOCRATS	80%	6%	14%
REPUBLICANS	8%	78%	14%
INDEPENDENTS	47%	36%	17%


QUESTION: If the 2004 election for State Treasurer were held today, would you vote for Mark Powell, the Democrat, or Sarah Steelman, the Republican?


	STEELMAN	POWELL	UNDECIDED

ALL	45%	37%	18%

MEN	47%	40%	13%
WOMEN	43%	34%	23%

DEMOCRATS	9%	72%	19%
REPUBLICANS	81%	4%	15%
INDEPENDENTS	46%	35%	19%



QUESTION: If the 2004 election for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for Jay Nixon, the Democrat, or Chris Byrd, the Republican?

	NIXON	BYRD	UNDECIDED

ALL	53%	36%	11%

MEN	50%	40%	10%
WOMEN	56%	32%	12%

DEMOCRATS	87%	6%	7%
REPUBLICANS	14%	71%	15%
INDEPENDENTS	58%	32%	10%

MAKEUP OF THOSE POLLED

GENDER:

Men 391 -49%

Women 409 -51%

PARTY ID:

Democrats 296 -37%

Republicans 288 -36%

Independents 216 -27%

RACE:

White 689 -86%

Black 97 -12%

Other 14 -2%

AGE:

18-29 135 -17%

30-44 295 -37%

45-59 201 -25%

60+ 169 -21%

UNION HOUSEHOLD:

Union 288 -36%

Non-union 512 -64%

RELIGION:

Protestant/Christian 455 -57%

Catholic 209 -26%

Jewish 16 -2%

Other 57 -7%

None/REF 63 -8%

REGION:

St. Louis Metro 280 interviews

Kansas City Metro 165 interviews

Northern 74 interviews

Central 76 interviews

Southeast 83 interviews

Southwest 122 interviews