COLLINSVILLE — Metro East officials have been battling to block the federal government from a move that would force many American Bottom property owners to buy expensive flood insurance.

While the fight continues, its leaders now say the landowners ought to seriously consider buying the insurance anyway.

One reason is that no matter what the outcome of the political fight, deficiencies in the Mississippi River levees could still cause a devastating flood in the plain that extends to the bluff line. Repairs may be a way off.

Another reason is that insurance bought now would be cheaper than if the Federal Emergency Management Agency moves ahead with its plan to label the whole area as at high risk for flooding.

Systems of levees protect an area that stretches from Alton to Columbia and is home to more than 150,000 people, and businesses and factories that employ more than 50,000 workers. It includes all or parts of 25 communities in Madison, St. Clair and Monroe counties.

The East-West Gateway Council of Governments estimates the economic loss from a major flood there at up to $12 billion.

In 1903, before there were levees, officials said, flooding reached the bluff line. That would mean water from the site of the Gateway Arch all the way to the edge of Collinsville.

"Buy flood insurance now," recommends David Schein, senior flood insurance liaison official for the FEMA region based in Chicago. He said owners of property not now classified as high-risk would continue to enjoy lower premiums if that changes.

He said the yearly premium is about $300 for a home in a moderate-risk area with a $100,000 mortgage and $40,000 coverage for contents. If it were reclassified as high-risk, the premium could go as high as $1,300.

At any price, Schein emphasized, it's far cheaper than bearing the loss from a flood.

U.S. Rep. Jerry Costello, D-Belleville, who introduced legislation to delay the high-risk designation, agrees.

"It is important to note that under the bill, homeowners can still purchase federal flood insurance, which is much less expensive before the new maps go into effect. If they do not purchase insurance, they will not be eligible for federal assistance in the case of a flood," he noted in a prepared statement.

When the next big flood will come is anybody's guess.

The Army Corps of Engineers built the Metro East levees in the 1940s and '50s to withstand a so-called 500-year flood, one that statistically would occur only twice in a millennium. But now, the corps won't even vouch for them against a 100-year-flood, for which there is a 1 percent chance each year.

The chief problem is underseepage — river water that works its way beneath and behind the earthen levees and could cause one to give way.

Alan Dooley, a corps spokesman, said the levees were "well-built and well-maintained" but designed when engineers did not understand as much about underseepage.

While the Southwestern Illinois Flood Prevention Council met Nov. 18 to take steps toward hiring engineering and financial consultants, bad news has piled up.

Revenue from a quarter-cent sales tax to finance repairs is falling about 10 percent short of projections, while cost estimates for the work have rocketed.

The corps originally estimated the price at $136 million to $180 million but now says it could be as much as $500 million.

Chris Wilson, the project manager for the corps, said the estimates rose because engineers found design deficiencies more serious than identified earlier and because of higher-than-expected costs of dealing with hazardous waste in the flood plain.

More definitive cost estimates are expected in a few months, he said.

FEMA has proposed revised flood threat maps that would classify all of the American Bottom as high-risk. If those become final, federally regulated or insured mortgage lenders would require borrowers to have flood insurance beginning in August. Lenders might add the cost of insurance to mortgage payments or foreclose on borrowers who fail to buy it.

About 40 percent of the area is already rated as high-risk, Schein said.

Costello's bill, introduced in July, would postpone implementation of the new maps for up to seven years for any communities actively working to fix levees thought to be at risk in a 100-year flood.

Costello spokesman David Gillies said the bill, pending in the House, would freeze current maps in communities where local officials are working on repairs that have been approved by FEMA or the Corps of Engineers, have adequate funding, and have prepared plans for levee surveillance, emergency warnings and evacuations.

"It's an important issue, and we're working very hard," Gillies said.

Officials said that nationally, Dallas and Sacramento, Calif., have similar problems.

FEMA is planning meetings Dec. 15 and 16 that will be open to the public but primarily intended to inform local officials, lenders, insurance agents, real estate agents, builders and developers about flood insurance issues.

Additional information about flood insurance is available online at www.FloodSmart.gov and www.fema.gov or by contacting any insurance agent.