JEFFERSON CITY — The number crunchers who follow state revenue trends sound like doomsayers.

"I've never seen anything like it," said business consultant and former state budget director Jim Moody.

"There aren't too many ways out of this one," said House Budget Chairman Allen Icet, R-Wildwood.

"We're talking about complete elimination of programs," said Sen. Brad Lager, R-Savannah.

A steep decline in tax collections has put the Capitol on high alert as legislators, lobbyists and others wait to see how Gov. Jay Nixon will cope with a widening budget hole.

The governor plans to announce a new round of cuts at an 11 a.m. press conference today. Budget-watchers say Nixon must chop at least $300 million this fiscal year, which ends June 30.

While details remained under wraps, health care providers say the administration has warned them of potential cuts in Medicaid rates for nursing home services and in-home care for the poor, elderly and disabled.

More layoffs in the state work force also are likely.

Nixon has said his priority is to preserve basic funding for public schools and higher education, areas that make up about 40 percent of the expenses funded by state general revenue.

Asked how Nixon could find enough savings if education is off-limits, budget director Linda Luebbering said: "It's definitely going to be challenging to find that money midyear, but the governor's made very clear he's going to make the tough choices to be sure the budget stays in balance. We're doing a very, very thorough review of all our programs."

Nixon cut a deal with college presidents this year: If they didn't raise tuition, he pledged to keep their state funding stable. "That agreement is solid," Luebbering said.

Said Senate President Pro Tem Charlie Shields, R-St. Joseph: "The big places you go to get money are higher education and (elementary and secondary) education, but those are the untouchables."

The governor already has cut or suspended $430 million in state spending. That would have been enough to balance the budget if collections declined 1 percent for the year. But the gap is getting bigger.

Battered by a 16.3 percent slide in September, general revenue fell 10 percent for the first quarter of this fiscal year, which began July 1.

Luebbering expects revenue collections to improve. Even so, assuming a 5 percent drop for the fiscal year means Nixon must cut $300 million to stay out of the red. With an 8 percent decline, he would need to slash $500 million.

Icet pegged the needed cut at $250 million to $300 million. "I see no way around it," he said.

While Nixon could soften the blow by using federal stimulus money known as budget stabilization funds, that would just put off the pain.

The state has spent or obligated about $1.3 billion in stimulus funds. The remaining $1 billion has been reserved for the 2011 budget, when much of it will be needed to keep education funding stable.

That's because the Legislature put $620 million in federal funds into the operating budget for public schools and universities this year. If the reserved federal money is spent now, more state general revenue will be needed to fill the education hole in 2011.

"There will be a day of reckoning," said Moody, who analyzed the budget for a regional business coalition known as Forward Metro St. Louis. "The current shortfall is probably moving that day of reckoning nearer."

Missouri's gloomy job picture is behind the numbers.

With state unemployment hovering near 10 percent, fewer people are paying income taxes. Individual income tax withholdings — the bedrock of tax collections — declined 5 percent so far this fiscal year. They have dropped for nine straight months.

"This is a cause for concern since withholding makes up almost 50 percent" of state general revenue collections, wrote Senate Appropriations Director Dan Haug in a memo to senators.

The other bulwark — sales taxes — declined 6.7 percent last quarter, the eighth consecutive quarter of decline.

If he doesn't cut education, Nixon has to find savings in prisons or social services programs such as Medicaid, which pays for health care for low-income elderly people, the disabled and some families with children.

Nixon campaigned last year on reversing the 2005 budget cuts that knocked 100,000 adults off the Medicaid rolls. So he's unlikely to lower income eligibility thresholds.

But his administration is trying to reduce rates paid to providers.

The Legislature has been gradually raising the rates, to encourage more doctors, dentists and other professionals to treat Medicaid patients. Shields said reversing those moves "is going to be a pretty tough sell" with legislators.

To head off a fight, state officials have been meeting this week with various provider groups.

"They've been very good about inviting folks in, saying, 'Help us save some money,'" said Jon Dolan, a nursing home lobbyist. The industry is weighing ways to leverage funds with provider taxes.

Home health providers, likewise, are "looking for the least damaging way" of making cuts without reducing staff salaries and benefits, said Mary Schantz, who represents the Missouri Alliance for Home Care.

Rich Blakeley, executive director of the Disabled Citizens Alliance, said options include "cost efficiencies," such as replacing time sheets with a call-in system for personal-care attendants.

As the budget crunch takes its toll on state services, some legislators want to rein in tax credit programs such as the one that preserves historic buildings.

Last year, businesses and individuals redeemed a total of $584 million in credits. State agencies and boards grant most of the breaks, without regard to whether state revenue is plummeting.

Sen. Jason Crowell, R-Cape Girardeau, wants to make tax credits subject to the Legislature's annual budgeting process. He points out that programs involving education and health care undergo annual reviews.

"If all those vital state services can go through the appropriations process, I would suggest that so, too, can tax credits," Crowell said. "If you had a going-out-to-eat budget of $200 and you lost your job, are you still going to have a $200 going-out-to-eat budget?"