Most homes in St. Louis — and the rest of the U.S. — are still worth less than before the crash

Most homes in St. Louis — and the rest of the U.S. — are still worth less than before the crash

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For sale sign at house

This December 2008 file photo shows a for sale sign in front of a home in California. AP Photo. 

Updated at 5:20 p.m.

A new report from Trulia, a real estate data and search site, says just 34.2 percent of homes across the U.S. have surpassed pre-recession peak values. The report, released Wednesday, appears to contradict a widely accepted view that home prices have recovered from the housing crash that began in 2006.

While tech hubs like San Francisco and Denver and job centers like Dallas or Nashville, Tenn., have seen home values explode past earlier highs, there are more losers than winners, the Trulia analysis shows.

In 28 metro areas examined in the report, fewer than 10 percent of homes had recovered their value since the bubble burst in 2008. Las Vegas was the worst performer, with less than 1 percent of its homes returning to or surpassing what they were worth before the recession.

"It's a reflection of just how well a metro area has recovered, broadly speaking," said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Trulia, adding that his findings largely correlate with other measures of metro-level growth, such as gains in income and total population.

McLaughlin says a ZIP code-level analysis offers a more nuanced view of the haves and have-nots. In much of the middle of the country, cities have stagnated while less populated regions lead the recovery.

The report ranked 100 metro areas. The St. Louis metro area — ranked 50th, with a recovery rate of 33.7 percent — reveals wide differences reflecting, in part, high demand for suburban housing.

In the 63011 ZIP code area, which includes Ballwin, Manchester, Ellisville and Wildwood, an estimated 72 percent of the houses have recovered their pre-recession value. In the 63130 ZIP code area, which includes University City, that number is 26 percent. In the 63031 ZIP code area in Florissant, it was only 1 percent.

The median home value in the St. Louis market as of March 2017 was $149,621, according to Trulia. The peak pre-recession median value was $159,884.

Trulia's research is based on its own estimates of home values, while the big indices like S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index and the FHFA House Price Index are based on actual sales.

Bloomberg and the Post-Dispatch contributed.

U.S. Home Value Recovery

Source: Trulia Inc.

U.S. Metro % of Homes Recovered to Pre-Recession Peak Value (Trulia, March 2017) Median Home Value (Trulia, March 2017) Pre-Recession Peak Median Home Value (Peak Dates Vary)
Denver, CO 98.7% $356,749 $237,071
San Francisco, CA 98.0% $1,112,438 $830,595
Oklahoma City, OK 94.3% $133,580 $109,689
Nashville, TN 94.1% $207,573 $160,913
Fort Worth, TX 93.9% $176,939 $138,157
Colorado Springs, CO 93.4% $247,181 $206,882
Wichita, KS 93.3% $137,589 $119,534
Dallas, TX 92.5% $201,650 $148,975
Tulsa, OK 91.7% $117,958 $97,775
Honolulu, HI 91.5% $657,425 $567,353
Buffalo, NY 91.3% $142,675 $117,728
Portland, OR 90.3% $360,514 $297,445
Rochester, NY 89.2% $132,423 $121,218
Raleigh, NC 87.6% $228,179 $198,822
Austin, TX 85.0% $266,217 $211,371
Louisville, KY 84.6% $148,130 $127,687
Omaha, NE 84.6% $153,583 $136,747
Pittsburgh, PA 84.3% $137,373 $116,376
San Jose, CA 84.3% $949,073 $742,758
Greenville, SC 83.1% $143,096 $124,522
Seattle, WA 80.5% $459,552 $405,211
Houston, TX 80.1% $160,618 $141,937
Madison, WI 79.4% $233,975 $210,821
Grand Rapids, MI 76.6% $167,377 $150,666
Baton Rouge, LA 71.9% $167,410 $160,229
Charlotte, NC 71.0% $167,127 $154,979
Knoxville, TN 71.0% $136,463 $128,717
Little Rock, AR 70.6% $133,038 $123,631
San Antonio, TX 68.4% $157,229 $148,506
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA 66.5% $452,628 $411,443
Syracuse, NY 63.9% $128,162 $122,622
Columbus, OH 62.9% $162,702 $153,601
Charleston, SC 61.1% $232,326 $215,504
Oakland, CA 60.4% $682,949 $639,501
Boston, MA 59.3% $431,686 $389,562
Cincinnati, OH 51.3% $151,634 $149,838
New Orleans, LA 50.9% $174,612 $182,980
Columbia, SC 47.5% $126,209 $124,798
Albany, NY 47.3% $209,235 $205,794
Kansas City, MO 45.3% $154,639 $158,576
Winston-Salem, NC 44.6% $132,922 $133,357
Greensboro-High Point, NC 44.1% $125,513 $126,712
Atlanta, GA 40.9% $175,184 $180,081
Indianapolis, IN 40.6% $133,523 $137,537
Birmingham, AL 39.7% $130,336 $133,116
Tacoma, WA 38.8% $288,807 $287,969
Los Angeles, CA 37.4% $557,683 $582,038
Philadelphia, PA 36.3% $157,299 $163,127
San Diego, CA 34.3% $530,103 $545,740
St. Louis, MO 33.7% $149,621 $159,884
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 31.2% $243,279 $245,761
Milwaukee, WI 29.1% $215,507 $228,674
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI 26.7% $188,482 $197,774
New York, NY 26.7% $425,445 $476,889
Memphis, TN 25.3% $109,336 $119,939
Orange County, CA 23.5% $676,185 $687,793
Salt Lake City, UT 23.1% $256,380 $270,425
Akron, OH 23.0% $131,760 $139,043
Dayton, OH 22.7% $111,869 $123,673
Toledo, OH 22.5% $109,984 $125,275
Long Island, NY 22.5% $440,127 $490,970
Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA 19.7% $302,912 $321,609
Washington, DC 19.5% $381,913 $437,217
Gary, IN 17.5% $139,113 $154,137
Cleveland, OH 17.2% $132,558 $151,632
Richmond, VA 15.6% $210,349 $226,815
Albuquerque, NM 14.6% $182,338 $201,580
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD 14.2% $405,746 $466,944
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 11.2% $245,828 $297,388
El Paso, TX 11.0% $110,924 $127,315
Miami, FL 10.8% $274,180 $331,864
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL 10.0% $180,846 $215,536
Newark, NJ 9.8% $351,663 $442,554
Wilmington, DE 9.3% $219,826 $248,567
Sacramento, CA 8.9% $359,454 $422,360
Detroit, MI 8.7% $71,230 $122,641
Baltimore, MD 8.6% $264,784 $306,246
Worcester, MA 8.1% $249,080 $281,009
Ventura County, CA 7.8% $560,525 $636,857
Chicago, IL 7.6% $225,051 $274,092
West Palm Beach, FL 7.2% $256,589 $323,142
Providence, RI 7.2% $268,587 $308,795
Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA 6.8% $232,791 $257,333
Jacksonville, FL 6.6% $178,605 $211,852
Fairfield County, CT 6.3% $399,905 $501,211
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 5.9% $226,220 $298,975
Allentown, PA 5.5% $191,830 $231,505
Phoenix, AZ 4.7% $230,371 $278,832
Orlando, FL 4.4% $202,696 $262,662
Hartford, CT 3.7% $225,132 $264,411
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 3.4% $323,180 $405,413
New Haven, CT 3.2% $221,160 $282,632
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 2.9% $176,654 $238,423
Bakersfield, CA 2.9% $191,435 $276,213
Fort Lauderdale, FL 2.7% $227,425 $295,100
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI 2.7% $215,616 $260,850
Camden, NJ 2.7% $195,813 $244,536
Fresno, CA 2.5% $217,818 $295,518
Tucson, AZ 2.4% $179,194 $236,236
Las Vegas, NV 0.6% $214,630 $306,028

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