ST. LOUIS — Health experts here are worried by rising COVID-19 rates in other parts of the U.S. and are monitoring a new highly contagious strain of the virus, which has now been detected in the St. Louis area.
For over a month, local experts have been watching warily as parts of Europe and Asia have been hit with overwhelming surges of COVID-19. Since late March, cases have been rising in the northeastern United States. On Monday, a renewed mask requirement took effect in Philadelphia in response to a swift rise in cases.
The Illinois state health department on Thursday issued a warning that COVID-19 case rates are “slowly rising in many areas of the state.” The department advised residents to pay close attention to their local case rates, and, if they are in an area with rising infections, wear a mask in indoor spaces and consider avoiding large gatherings.
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“I don’t think Missouri is going to be somehow less susceptible to these rises,” said Dr. Farrin Manian, an infectious disease physician and chair of the Department of Medicine at Mercy Hospital St. Louis. “It’s cause for concern.”
Data from the health departments in St. Louis, St. Louis County and St. Charles County show increases in new daily cases over the past couple of weeks.
Experts believe the numbers of positive tests are underestimated because many people don’t get tested, and because many at-home rapid tests are not reported to health departments.
“The numbers themselves may not tell the whole story, from here on out,” Manian said.
Manian said Mercy Hospital St. Louis has been seeing a higher portion of its COVID-19 tests come back positive in recent weeks. But it hasn’t seen rising numbers of people hospitalized for COVID-19. And apparently the trend is holding across the region: St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force data shows local COVID-19 hospitalizations have remained stable.
The state of Illinois is helping health care providers stock up on therapeutics in case of another surge, and the state has more than 1.5 million rapid tests stockpiled, with more on the way. The state urged residents to stay up to date on vaccinations, which as of late March includes a second booster for adults older than 50 and for people older than 12 who are immunocompromised.
The New York State Department of Health on Wednesday announced that two omicron subvariants have emerged in Central New York, alongside a notable increase in infections. The two subvariants together — BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 — accounted for more than 70% of cases in that region. The subvariants appear to spread more quickly than the previous, omicron BA.2 subvariant, but there is no evidence that they cause more severe illness, the department said.
The St. Louis County health department recently confirmed one case of the subvariant BA.2.12.1, spokesman Christopher Ave said in an email Monday.
Marc Johnson, a professor at the University of Missouri School of Medicine who is involved with the state’s wastewater testing efforts, said the omicron BA.2.12.1 variant had previously been detected in the state sewershed. The first time, in late March, was in the St. Louis region. The second time, in early April, was in the Kansas City region.
Though researchers can detect a variant in wastewater data, they can’t tell how many people the variant came from. It’s entirely possible, Johnson said, that the St. Louis-area result came from one person, but it’s impossible to know.
Johnson said he is watching carefully to see how fast it spreads. The effects here will be clearer in another week.
Given that many people don’t get tested, and that only a small portion of COVID-19 cases are tested to identify variants, Manian said, “It’s going to be difficult to believe that’s the only case.”
