TOWER GROVE • When Edwin Jackson soft-tossed the ball to Tony Cruz at first base last night to complete the St. Louis Cardinals' victory in Houston, the standings immediately claimed the wild card is tied.
The "Cool Standings" say it's not close.
It is possible to track the Cardinals' uncanny run back into the postseason race by contrasting their September record with the Atlanta Braves. The Cardinals are 17-8. The Braves are 9-17. That is the difference. That is why after 161 games played by both teams this season there is a dead heat in the wild-card derby. But to understand the historic magnitude of the Cardinals' run, one has to get a little fancier, dig a little deeper, and, yes, fire up the hard drive.
The Web site CoolStandings.com tracks a daily "playoff percentage," and it rises and falls depending on the outcome of games played. The site calculates the "playoff percentage" by running scores of simulations for how the season will end and mapping how many times -- the percentage -- that team reaches the playoffs. For example, if they run 10,000 simulations and Team X makes the playoffs 8,347 times, the playoff percentage is 83.5.
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A few weeks ago, The Post-Dispatch outlined how historic comebacks were hatched. Already this week, we've seen two clubs' percentages spike, historically.
On Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays increased their playoff percentage from 11.5 percent to 36.6 percent when they tied Boston in the American League wild card standings. On Tuesday, the Cardinals pushed their playoff percentage from 29.1 to 61.3 by tying Atlanta. The opponent is factored into those simulations, which is why the Cardinals (facing the 105-loss Astros) have the edge over the Rays (facing the AL East champ Yankees).
These are great comebacks, but are they the greatest ever?
CoolStandings.com has a list of the "greatest comebacks*" in baseball history, and it uses the playoff percentage to rank them.
* Mind you, a comeback is in the eye of the beholder. The Phillies remember '64 as a collapse. We're dealing with the team that did the chasing, not the one that did the choking in this entry.
By this measure, the Cardinals' franchise has had (potentially) four of the 18 greatest comebacks in baseball history. This season's would clock in at 18th. Here are the rankings, including two in-progress comebacks:
1914 Boston Braves ... low point: less than 0.1 percent on 7/7
2005 Houston Astros ... low point: 0.2 percent on 6/7
1964 Cardinals ... low point: 0.2 percent on 7/24
1973 New York Mets ... low point: 0.2 percent on 8/5
1951 New York Giants ... low point: 0.3 percent on 8/12
2011 Tampa Bay Rays ... low point: 0.5 percent on 9/3
2004 Houston Astros ... low point: 0.6 percent on 8/26
1978 New York Yankees ... low point: 0.6 percent on 7/18
1930 Cardinals ... low point: 0.7 percent on 8/19
1934 Cardinals ... low point: 0.7 percent on 9/6
1936 New York Giants ... low point: 0.7 percent on 7/14
1973 Cincinnati Reds ... low point: 0.8 percent on 6/30
2002 Moneyball Athletics ... low point: 0.8 percent on 6/5
1985 Los Angeles Dodgers ... low point: 0.8 percent on 6/9
1906 Chicago White Sox ... low point: 0.8 percent on 6/15
1988 Boston Red Sox ... low point: 1.0 percent on 6/13
1984 Kansas City Royals ... low point: 1.0 percent on 7/18
2007 Colorado Rockies ... low point: 1.0 percent on 6/3
2011 Cardinals ... low point: 1.1 percent on 8/27
The problem with these "comebacks" is they don't factor in 11th-hour, back-stretch, final-furlong, last-gasp, death-rattle charges. Some of the percentages above come from as early as June, like when The Houston Chronicle put a gravestone on its front page to announce the end of the Astros season that would, eventually, result in the first World Series games ever played in the state of Texas.
That comeback was many months in the making.
The Cardinals and Rays have only had a few weeks.
I dug into CoolStandings.com a bit this morning and re-sorted the above comebacks by the team's lowest playoff percentage at any point in September, and here is what that looks like:
2011 Tampa Bay Rays ...0.5 percent on 9/3
1934 Cardinals ... 0.7 percent on 9/6
1951 NY Giants ... 0.9 percent on 9/14
2011 Cardinals ...1.4 percent on 9/5
1964 Cardinals ... 1.5 percent on 9/20
1973 NY Mets ... 2.1 percent on 9/3
2007 Colorado Rockies ... 3.1 percent on 9/17
2004 Houston Astros ... 3.7 percent on 9/251930 Cardinals ... 6.3 percent on 9/2
1978 NY Yankees ... 8.4 percent on 9/1
1984 KC Royals ... 20.2 percent on 9/1
1973 Cincinnati ... 22.4 percent on 9/1
2005 Houston Astros ... 32.2 percent on 9/13
1914 Boston Braves ... 34.6 percent on 9/1
1988 Boston Red Sox ... 38.2 percent on 9/21906 Chicago White Sox ...67.1 percent on 9/11
1936 NY Giants ... 83.0 percent on 9/5
1985 LA Dodgers ... 88.1 percent on 9/1
2002 Moneyball A's ... 92.7 percent on 9/6
As you can see, some of the teams with the top percentage comebacks in the game's history have entered September in good standings -- or cool standings -- and only gotten better. The 2002 A's were steamrolling toward a postseason berth by the time September started, and so were the '36 Giants and '06 White Sox.
All of these comebacks are not created equal either.
To truly find the greatest comeback, one has to use the above as a springboard. The Cardinals are the example. The 2011 club had the lower percent in September than the '64 Cardinals, but that '64 Cardinals' low point came far later in the month, with far fewer games to go. Take all of the teams in the above list with a less-than 10 percent chance at any point in September and find how far they had to come in a short amount of time.
Here is the lowest playoff percentage for those 10 teams in the final week of the season:
2011 Tampa Bay Rays ... 3.7 percent
2007 Colorado Rockies ... 4.7 percent
2011 Cardinals ... 6.8 percent
1934 Cardinals ... 9.2 percent
2004 Houston Astros ... 10.5 percent
1951 NY Giants ... 18.4 percent
1964 Cardinals ... 27.3 percent
1973 NY Mets ... 51.9 percent
1978 NY Yankees ... 77.7 percent
1930 Cardinals ... 91.5 percent
The '64 Cardinals got their big boost during a head-to-head series against the Philadelphia Phillies toward the end of the season. The '11 Cardinals had their crack earlier in the month against their head-to-head foe, and have mostly chewed up ground with the help of other teams, but mostly the help of the Atlanta Braves.
The two greatest late-season comebacks for a playoff berth have widely been described as the '64 Cardinals and the '51 Giants.
On August 27, 1964, those Cardinals had a 1.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. On August 27, 2011, these Cardinals had a 1.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. With 133 games played on the schedule, those '51 Giants had a 2.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. With 133 games played on their schedule, these Cardinals had a 1.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Right now the Rays are position to pull off the greatest and most unlikely comeback in baseball. The Cardinals just have the better odds of doing it.
What they both share is the simple math of the situation.
They haven't pulled off the comeback just yet.
They have to win tonight to make it possible.
If they don't win, history won't remember them as anything but a pest that nearly caused two playoff teams their spots ... but didn't.
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