QUESTION: Odds/percentages of any of these free agent/trade targets actually ending up as Cardinals in 2019: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Donaldson, Lance Lynn, Zach Greinke? Conversely, your odds/percentages of these current Cardinals wearing the same uniform next year: Jose Martinez, Brett Cecil, Jedd Gyorko, Luke Gregerson, Dominic Leone?
COMMISH: I'm just not much of a percentages guy, but I would think there is a good chance that Leone would not be offered a contract this week. Of the Cardinals you mentioned, Jose Martinez is the one most likely to be here.
As for the outsiders, no chance for Lance Lynn. Little chance for Machado.
Follow-up: Why do so many people want to trade Jose Martinez? He's one of our best offensive players. At the very least, he's a valuable bench piece.
COMMISH: My point exactly. Best pinch-hitter in the majors for over 50 plate appearances and a proven .300 hitter who isn't arbitration eligible. No need to move him.
follow-up: Yeah, let's hold onto Jose Martinez and give him 100 ABs per season, until his trade value is in the basement. That's a strategy that worked so well with Carson Kelly.
COMMISH: Jose Martinez does not have as much trade value as you might think. Plus, every good bench man gets 200 or more at-bats in a season. Greg Garcia, for instance, had 181 and he is not on J-Mart's level. J. Martinez is more valuable here than anywhere else. The Cardinals aren't that good that they can start giving away .300 hitters.