Transcript of Cards chat with Joe Strauss

Joe Strauss: So much for leading off with soft toss.... Look, the organization's delay in engaging Team Pujols in negotiations should not be misconstrued as a reluctance to sign him. There are significant forces in play. The Players Association is acutely interested in Pujols' next contract. The club has to weight Pujols' value as a player and as a marketing centerpiece to guaranteed dollars likely committed beyond the most productive portion of his career. There is also a significant PR element to this. As currently constructed, the Cardinals can draw 3 million during a fourth-place season. Without Pujols, the team's fan base may hold the organization to an even higher competitive standard. The Cardinals have failed to draw 3 million only once during Albert's tenure here -- and never failed to do so since he signed his seven-year extension prior to the 2004 season. There are other factors as well. The Rams and Blues have been rancid for much of the last seven seasons while the Cardinals have been to two World Series and endured only one losing season. That dynamic may be changing as the NFL and NHL franchises recover. Bottom line: Can the Cardinals justify paying Pujols close to $30 million for the next five, six or eight seasons while remaining competitive. And if they answer in the affirmative, is the fan base prepared to pay for heavier freight?
My information is that the club will engage Pujols' representation in talks about an extension before Christmas. I was reminded of that as recently as yesterday. Stay tuned.

Joe Strauss: You imply that the player is quitting on the manager in game situations. That's a very serious charge and one that I disagree with.
In a broader sense, a player displeased with his manager or coach may allow his work habits to erode. Maybe he becomes consistently tardy or unresponsive to coaching. That's a different question and a tendency that may exhibit itself more consistently. It is, indeed, what got Felipe Lopez exiled in September. A player only buries himself, however, by dogging it in game conditions in front of fans and media. Only a tiny percentage of players are that self-destructive.

Joe Strauss: I'll be blunt while also acknowledging that Pagnozzi did a credible job in September:
1. Pagnozzi has rarely been used as an everyday catcher at any rung of the minor-league system. A big part of that is his offensive struggles. Yes, he showed well in a small number of plate appearances in September. But his history suggests that he is not a major-league hitter. The Cardinals are on record as saying they want their next backup to Molina to offer more of an offensive deterrent. As much as pitchers liked throwing to Pagnozzi, his arm was exposed as average at best. I have no idea whether a health issue was involved, but his arm did not fit the description of a "plus" major-league catcher. The Cardinals hope the next backup will allow Yadier Molina more rest. A decision was made, obviously, that a 28-year-old rookie was not the answer. All that said, Pagnozzi is a class act. One hopes he gets an opportunity to prove himself with another organization after signing as a minor-league free agent.

Joe Strauss: I believe he's got a legitimate shot. He requires 12 votes from the 16-member committee, which includes Johnny Bench, Whitey Herzog and Ozzie Smith. Simmons certainly deserved a better fate than being dumped from the HOF ballot after one year of consideration by the scribes. Results will be announced Dec. 6 during MLB's winter meetings in Orlando.

Joe Strauss: Despite allegations by their critics, the Cardinals are not a low-rent payroll. They've consistently ranked around the upper 30-40 percent in team payroll. It's hard to argue against the Twins' success on a "small market" budget. The San Diego Padres typically have held down costs and were regular postseason participants through 2006. Ownership intrigue negatively affected them for a period but the franchise again appears on an upswing, though the loss of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez after next season appears certain.

Joe Strauss: Cash.

Joe Strauss: The Cardinals are looking outside the organization for a backup catcher. Anderson may be marketed as a line-drive lefthanded bat but his catching skills remains a work in progress. He appears ticketed for a return to Memphis. Again, many of those who previously couldn't grasp the skepticism regarding Anderson's future with the parent club witnessed his raw defensive skills in September. The Cardinals (and various third-party publications) fell in love with Anderson during his first three minor-league seasons. His value, however, has since eroded. He does swing a line drive bat but doesn't project at another position.

Joe Strauss: I anticipate dominoes will start to fall in the next two weeks. The club isn't going to allow the Westbrook negotiations to drag on much beyond this month. There appears a desire to trade for a backup C and perhaps a SS. Next week's GM meetings may be more active than in previous years due to this year's accelerated free agent timetable.

Joe Strauss: It doesn't look like Jose's opportunity will come next year. When TLR leaves, it's very likely Oquendo will receive an interview to become his successor. Jose has interviewed with San Diego and Seattle in recent years. My information, however, suggests that the Cardinals will award considerable points for previous major-league managerial experience when choosing TLR's successor. A logical next step for Oquendo would be to manage in the Arizona Fall League, but I have never heard him voice enthusiasm for the idea.

Joe Strauss: There appears to be minimal interest due to a combination of expense, Nishioka's apparent preference to play on the West Coast, and a belief by many in uniform that Skip Schumaker represents a solid option at second base while the front office appears committed to pursue a trade for any upgrade at shortstop.

Joe Strauss: Cazana, 32, has spent much of his last four seasons in the Mexican League and appears more of a curiosity than a factor with this organization. Cazana also must be placed on the 40-man roster this month or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. He remains the club's most intriguing 18th round draft pick but does not appear in the big club's plans.

Joe Strauss: As you do: Something of a defensive savant still bothered by an inconsistent throwing motion and low confidence at the plate. He is also arbitration-eligible, which becomes a subtle influence. No matter his defensive gifts, Ryan could become a nomadic figure unless he improves at the plate. (He can no longer be optioned.) For now, he fits on an otherwise powerful offensive club. Otherwise, a less robust team such as the Cardinals would examine other options. The fact that Ryan regressed offensively can't be dismissed. To just "flip flop" the years isn't an option.

Joe Strauss: The club wouldn't attempt to trade Pujols unless the parties reached a negotiating impasse. Pujols would then have to waive rights as a 10-5 player for a trade to go forward. Think about it: Would Pujols do the club a favor after the Cardinals waited until this offseason to approach him in earnest about an extension and, then, make an unsatisfactory offer? It's highly unlikely the club would approach Albert about waiving his veto power until the sides reached a dead end? What kind of climate do you believe would then exist. Does Pujols want to uproot his family for 2-3 months (or a season) before entering free agency. Highly doubtful.

Joe Strauss: Hudson would add to the personality mix within the clubhouse. But also at issue are his fitness as a leadoff hitter (very uncertain) and where he stands now compared to before his recent wrist problems. Hudson is likely to command a one-year guarantee, which adds to his value here. However, as stated previously, there are many within the organizaton resistent to the idea of demoting Schumaker to a utility role.

Joe Strauss: That is the going rate for a veteran No. 3-4 starter for a contending club. And that is what Westbrook now represents. He eats innings. He involves his defense. He throws strikes. He's a positive within the clubhouse. He has the potential to win 13-15 games for a good team. He fits here. Remember, the club guaranteed Brad Penny $7.5 million with another $1.5 million in appearance incentives last year. Penny was projected as a 3-4 starter.

Joe Strauss: Yes.

Joe Strauss: Eric Hinske as a bench bat. Dan Uggla at second base (highly unlikely).

Joe Strauss: You can panic if we're having this conversation in two months.

Joe Strauss: An $110 million payroll is doable and virtually certain in 2012 if Pujols signs an extension.

Joe Strauss: Your points are valid, though free agent signings come with the bonus of costing money, not players. The Diamondback's Stephen Drew makes much sense for a number of reasons. He is a competent defender who can hit all over the lineup, including leadoff. He has extra-base power. He is also second-time arbitration-eligible and a Scott Boras client. You would acquire him for two years. GM John Mozeliak said Tuesday he believes it more likely the club finds help at shortstop through trade than free agency. Drew appears an obvious target.

Joe Strauss: So noted. You speak for a number of others on the board.

Joe Strauss: McClellan conditions each winter as a starter. As of now, he will go to spring training as a candidate for the rotation. Should Westbrook return, that equation may change. Indeed, McClellan may have value elsewhere as well.

Joe Strauss: I don't see Raz' on the South Side of Chicago next season.

Joe Strauss: OK, we now have the anti-Team Pujols viewpoint. As always, the ChatMeister strives for balance when atop The Tsunami.

Joe Strauss: Cox will not be next year's second baseman, though he will be seen in major-league camp. Schumaker still enjoys the public support of the manager and front office. There appears more an inclination to make a change at shortstop. However, the situation may change if the right player becomes available via trade. Very fluid.

Joe Strauss: The D'backs have a serious need in the bullpen, enough so that they are considering Trevor Hoffman as closer. Mitch Boggs, Jason Motte or Kyle McClellan may look like a more appealing alternative. Such a deal would likely have to expand, but the Cardinals do have a surplus of RH relief arms who project as closer types.

Joe Strauss: Again, the Cardinals don't appear in the market to take on a multi-year contract with a premium free agent. Westbrook is something of an exception. The club would likely go two years with some sort of option for 2013. Tejada makes sense on a one-year basis.

Joe Strauss: You may be on to something. The Cardinals were willing to include Ryan for Roy Oswalt last July. Again, the lack of flexibility with Ryan adds to the possibility of him being moved this winter. There would be little need to keep an established starter at SS and Ryan on the same roster.

Joe Strauss: Bill Hall does offer versatility, though he becomes exposed as a defender if used as a starter. Hall has hit .225, .201 and .247 the last three seasons. He's not the same guy who cranked 35 home runs for Milwaukee in 2006. The Mariners and Red Sox saw him as more an outfielder than an infielder. Tejada ranks an edge for me. Uggla represents a potential short-term fit after rejecting the Marlins' on a four-year offer. His reported demands for an AAV above $10 million make him a tough fit here long term.

Joe Strauss: The Cardinals overvalued him.

Joe Strauss: TLR and the coaching staff remain Schu' backers.

Joe Strauss: Haven't heard of anything imminent. But the campaign did draw thousands to the club's social media sites.

Joe Strauss: There is a lot of comfort in Ryan as a defender. However, you failed to note Carpenter's obvious displeasure with Ryan over his tardy on-field arrival in Cincinnati. Ryan failed to generate a .300 OBP for any month last season. In today's game that's unacceptable. Drew is no defensive stiff. He can play. I agree with you that the Cardinals may be gambling in RF, a position that averaged more than 105 RBI in 2008-09.

Joe Strauss: Renteria should be viewed as a boost to someone's bench at this point. He dealt with numerous physical issues this season and has failed to achieve a .400 Slug. or .333 OBP the last three seasons. (Edgar had a .347 OBP and .420 Slg. in his six seasons with the Cardinals.) He could fill a role similar to that envisioned for Tejada, but his recent numbers no longer justify 500 plate appearances in a season.

Joe Strauss: I agree entirely with your take on Marvin Miller. That Bowie Kuhn beat him into the HOF is laughable... Prado was arguably the Braves' MVP last season. However, he does not offer the same potential production as Rasmus. Schu' or Jay in CF wouldn't compensate. The Cardinals would seemingly be doubly dependent on what Freese and Craig provide in such a scenario. In other words, another move would be necessary.

Joe Strauss: It's fair to expect improvement from Ryan. But even when hitting .292 he averaged an RBI every 10.6 at-bats and an extra-base hit every 13.7 at-bats. Don't overstate his offense. He is a compelling defensive player. As for Schu', I believe the coaching staff plans for him to play more man-to-man coverage in 2011.

Joe Strauss: Schumaker dealt with leg and forearm/wrist problems for most of the season. He played his best defense late. That said, the Cardinals' difficulty turning double plays last season became a repeating nightmare. True Fact: Schu' has now played more major league innings at second base (2,003) than in the outfield (1,780).

Joe Strauss: I'm relating a preference, not a cast-in-stone decision. Beyond O. Hudson, there are few palatable options at second base within the FA market. As noted last week, Hudson's production numbers last season were very similar to what Schu' offered in 2008-09. Schumaker is signed for $2.7M. Ryan is arbitration-eligible. There also may be a debate whether Ryan's value represents what he may achieve in arbitration.

Joe Strauss: Franklin appears set in the role for 2011. The club may then examine its internal options before deciding whether to seek outside help for the '12 season.

Joe Strauss: Mo' was given the chance this week to declare Rasmus untouchable. He declined. As stated here before, Raz' is in play for the right price. No, I don't know what that price would be. But he is not off the market.

Joe Strauss: The Fish have finished second in the NL East. three times and never won their five-team division in their 18-year history. They have won the World Series in both their trips to the postseason. Judging by attendance, it seems their market would apply a different definition of success.

Joe Strauss: Jim Tracy is a big TLR fan, though he's not exactly part of the younger crowd. John Russell had plenty of respect for TLR before being fired. Jim Riggleman is a TLR believer. Given recent managerial turnover within the league, there isn't much of a crowd to draw from.

Joe Strauss: The Giants have the look of a one-hit wonder. They appear extremely vulnerable to hits to their rotation. They were overreliant on one facet that became overwhelming in September and October. It's doubtful many organizations will follow that model.

Joe Strauss: That type could be in play, but unlikely as first choice.

Joe Strauss: The Cardinals claim to be placing greater emphasis on offense vs. pitching/defense this winter. We'll see.

Joe Strauss: Given the SS trade market, I still believe Hudson could come into play. The free agent market should become active earlier this season (though Type A compensation may slow things for the elites). Hudson fits in a number of ways. I wouldn't dismiss him as a possibility. However, Hudson does not offer the "pop" Mo' admits the Cardinals now seek. Dan Uggla has it. But he comes at a much higher cost in dollars and personnel.

Joe Strauss: Descalso may have a future but has yet to convince many that he rates as an everyday second baseman. He's a dirt player. His value may exceed his skill set. Doesn't strike out much. Has some line drive power. Projects as a complementary player.

Joe Strauss: Simmons has some support; however, 75 percent is a tough threshold when many are stumping for George Steinbrenner and Marvin Miller. Whitey wasted little time trading Teddy when he had him as a player. I don't know how that translates when it comes to HOF consideration. My golf game is in need of work.... looking for scholarship at local establishments.

Joe Strauss: Very fair assumption. Seven years at 27.5M = $192.5M.

Joe Strauss: Cardinals have made an offer and apparently are willing to let it be shopped. However, my information is they need to know something within next two weeks or will move on. The club believes it still has a solid chance of retaining him.

Joe Strauss: If TipSheet says to trade Raz', the club should make him "a Cardinal for life" immediately.

Joe Strauss: 1. 40 percent.
2. 25 percent.
3. 80 percent.
4. 60 percent.

Joe Strauss: BD3 made an appearance. Underscored the team's desire to get a Pujols extension done.

Joe Strauss: My opinion is if AP isn't done by spring training, it won't get done and at this time next year we'll be experience a LeBron-like media feeding frenzy. The Humanity!!!

Joe Strauss: Given the lack of upward mobility among position players, it's a fair conclusion to draw. But what is there to deal at this point without subtracting from the team's competitiveness? The Cardinals are expected to soon announce Matt Carpenter as their Minor League Player of the Year. Carpenter's an interesting guy but he'll be 25 next season after spending this year at AA Springfield. He's hardly considered Can't Miss.

Joe Strauss: McClellan's versatility is a huge asset. Westbrook likely won't receive a 3-year guarantee -- not from the Cardinals anyway. McClellan also represents another de facto lefthander since his splits against LH bats are better than many LH relievers.

Joe Strauss: You go back to your sandbox. Cliff Lee will go to NY or Texas.

Joe Strauss: The '10 Cardinals underachieved. I believe that. The everyday lineup is solid, even with questions 3B and RF. If Freese is healthy -- and that has shown to be a big IF -- the club looks capable offensively given an upgrade to the bench. Pitching remains a strength should Westbrook or his equal be signed. As poorly as the Cardinals executed for much of last season, they won 86 games and dominated the eventual division champions. This team has worn down repeatedly in recent seasons. Finding a way to give Molina more down time and to have backups closer to the midpoint rather than the end of their careers could represent major additions. Kyle Lohse is a huge variable as well. If he remotely resembles 2008, the Cardinals become a dominant pitching team.

Joe Strauss: Motte and Boggs are future options. At some point, the club will have to weigh what Fernando Salas represents and react accordingly. McClellan is an asset. By keeping him in bullpen for seveal years, the Cardinals have suppressed his value in arbitration. They could move him to rotation in next two years without him becoming obscenely expensive before free agency. The club loses Lohse after 2012 and must decide on Carp's option after next season. McClellan offers an alternative for both as Wainwright's contract increases.

Joe Strauss: In bigger news, the VCU Rams tip off Friday against UNC-Greensboro. Rams one of only four teams to win their final game last season. Coming off back-to-back beatdowns of SLU. Look out!!!

Joe Strauss: There may be momentum for a deal going down before the winter meetings. There is merit to a deal such as the one you suggest, though the Cardinals would seek another player in return as well.