Quick Hits: BenFred on STL sports
Rounding up hot topics from columnist Ben Frederickson's chat with fans of St. Louis sports.
QUESTION:Â How can Bill DeWitt Jr. justify an extension for John Mozeliak with some of the free-agent and extension decisions the front office has made under his watch? To recap: Mike Leake, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson, etc.
BENFRED:Â Here's the best analogy I can come up with:
As a long-term president of baseball operations with a wide range of responsibilities that span every rung of the organization, Mozeliak's job is to oversee a bunch of buckets. The free agency bucket has been leaking lately, for sure. Big time. The Carpenter extension looks like it could put a hole in the extension bucket, though the Cardinals have made some wise ones as well (see Wong, Kolten). Other buckets include player development, draft, overseas development, and a bunch of other stuff many fans probably don't care much about. DeWitt sees a room full of buckets, not the one leaking one, or two.
If you've heard DeWitt discuss his team, you know he prefers the long-range view. So, let's look at that view.
Mozeliak became the GM of the team before the 2008 season. Since then, the Cardinals rank third in baseball and second in the National League in regular-season wins (1,076). They are tied with the Yankees for third-best in postseason wins (35).
Under Mozeliak's tenure of GM and now president of baseball operations, the Cardinals have won a World Series, played in two, and have five first-place finishes in the division, the latest coming this season, which ended in the NLCS, against the team that won the World Series.
DeWitt wants sustained success and annual relevancy. Mozeliak has provided that better than pretty much any other GM or president of baseball operations out there. Hence, the extension.
COMMENT: The Cardinals put themselves in a hole with these aging player contracts. This is mentioned daily on this site. However, the culprit behind these stupid moves seems untouchable. Just amputate the bad tissue and move on instead of complaining about the pain.
BENFRED: Are you advocating for the cutting of ties with the aging players, or with the front office members that signed those deals? Hard to tell here. If this is another Fire-Mozeliak post, that's fine, but I'll repeat what I've said often — it's not happening any time soon, and especially not after the Cardinals reclaimed the division and reached the NLCS.
The Cardinals have their manager. They have a revitalized defense. They have good pitching led by a young ace. They are not in nearly as bad of shape as some make it seem, but they do face a challenge. They've got a good chunk of money tied up in aging guys who didn't perform as well as hoped last season, and some the last two seasons.
They've gotta find a way to address that, or navigate around that if they want to improve. Or, they have to find a way to get more from those players.
QUESTION: After hearing the front office's opinions during Tuesday's press conference, is it safe to assume the Cardinals are not interested in adding a starter? Are they really going to do nothing?
BENFRED: That seems like a safe assumption regarding a starting pitcher. There is still upside to adding one. Just as there was last season, at the trade deadline. But I'm not convinced the Cardinals see that as a need, especially with all signs pointing to Adam Wainwright returning. If that happens, the only hole in the rotation is from Michael Wacha's departure, and that can likely be filled from within. Carlos Martinez could do it in a best-case scenario. Others will be eager for the shot if he can't.
If the Cardinals do go outside, Dallas Keuchel still seems interesting as a realistic potential target. It would be nice to have a lefty presence in the rotation. Perhaps Austin Gomber becomes that option, though he's a bit of a wild-card until we see how he responds to injury. I'm not banking on much from Alex Reyes until we see him stay healthy for a season.
It would be pretty rare for the Cardinals to do nothing — like, literally nothing — during an offseason. In the past, the Cardinals have at least been willing to put their thumb on a position or idea — leadoff hitter, impact bat, starting pitcher — that gave some clue as to what they were looking to add. That was not the case Tuesday.
Basically, Mozeliak said the team will look more familiar than different in 2020, but that the front office would investigate ways to improve.
The defense of Matt Carpenter and the stiff-arm of the notion of him playing left field seems to suggest the plan is, for now, to send Carpenter back to third base.
I still think that's a position the Cardinals have to look at upgrading if a realistic and short-term option — Mike Moustakas, for example — exists, especially if they mean what they say about wanting to see Tommy Edman bounce around defensively and help back up Paul DeJong at shortstop.
QUESTION:Â You've made it clear you are against the idea of trading Kolten Wong, but what if it was in a package for Francisco Lindor?
BENFRED:Â I've not read anything credible that suggests Cleveland is serious about trading Lindor, the face of its team. Speculation, sure.
But he's also just one year away from free agency. So, let's pretend he really is up for grabs on the trade market. The team that trades for him gets only one guaranteed year of Lindor. Then, he's a free agent. Of course, you could extend him during that lone season. Any team that trades for him will certainly plan on that. Doesn't mean it will happen.
Lindor is 25 as of today. His free agency will be one of those blockbuster ones that match a premier free agent with a premier age. Knowing what we know about the Cardinals, and their hesitancy to (a) pay the trade cost of a player who is only guaranteed to be in a Cardinals uniform for one season and (b) pay the mega contract -- in free agency or extension -- that Lindor will have earned, do you think this is realistic?
I don't. And about that trade cost . . .
Wong isn't a free agent until 2021. This would not be a one-for-one deal. Cleveland would likely want top-level prospect talent for its superstar player. So, the Cardinals would be giving up two seasons of their Gold Glove second baseman, plus a player or players who could help them in the future. For one guaranteed year of a player who has expressed a public interest in the past of wanting to reach free agency. A trade for Lindor is not like the trade for Paul Goldschmidt. Check their ages again.
It doesn't seem like a trade the Cardinals make -- if it's a trade any team will have the chance to make.
Photo:Â Harrison Bader of the Cardinals is out at second as Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor turns a double play in a June 2018 game at Busch Stadium. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
QUESTION:Â The Cardinals, as constructed, will not win a World Series. Does the front office think fans will be content with just making the playoffs?
BENFRED:Â The Cardinals are content with making the playoffs. Do they want to keep winning once they get in? Sure. But they also take pride in being in the mix every year, as they do with their consecutive streak of winning seasons. And they still think if you get in, you can go all the way. In many ways, the Cardinals' run to the NLCS supports that. So does the Nats' run from wild-card team to World Series champion, I imagine.
The Cardinals feel good about their 2019. They feel they ran into a team of destiny in the Nats. They acknowledge their offense needs to improve, but there will be no massive changes to the roster this offseason unless a significant curveball arrives.
As for their view of the fans, the Cardinals are appreciative of the support they receive and seem a bit miffed when asked if they sense a disconnect between the team and its supporters. I'd argue that the percentage of frustrated/agitated/unenthusiastic fans is bigger than the team acknowledges/realizes but probably not as big as the Internet makes it seem.
Empty seats during a postseason series said a lot more than angry tweets, but we saw both in 2019.
Photo: Empty seats in a section of the left-field upper deck at Busch Stadium for Game 2 of the NLCS. Photo by David Carson, dcarson@post-dispatch.com
QUESTION:Â Is Barry Odom as good as gone? If Mizzou fans had higher expectations, would it have happened already?
BENFRED:Â No, I really think Jim Sterk wants to see how the season finishes. Odom was in a similar spot before his last win against Florida, and that certainly changed the tune. Sterk has said time and time again he views seasons as a whole, so I expect him to do that.
Factoring into his analysis of this season will have to be some bad marks against his coach. The Tigers have lost three games to double-digit dogs. They have squandered an ideal schedule. They have gotten mediocre play from an offensive line that should be better than it is. Their offense is not as good as its talent. They can't figure out how to play in the rain. They commit far too many penalties.
The Tigers have also had some bad luck worth considering. They lost linebacker Cale Garrett, the QB of the defense. Kelly Bryant has been roughed up and is a question mark moving forward. The NCAA waiting game has been a distraction that remains.
Sterk will weigh them all. He's mentioned regularly that he wants a top-25 team. If a fourth-year coach can't get there, it's fair to wonder when.
As for fan expectations, Mizzou faithful can't pretend its support of the program dictates firing a six or seven-win coach, even if that team should have won nine-plus this season.
Compared to the SEC, Mizzou is one of the lowest programs on the totem pole when it comes to measurable fan support, in both donations, attendance and passion for football.
You get what you pay for, or something like that.
QUESTION:Â Why can't Blues coach Craig Berube and Robby Fabbri seem to get on the same page?
BENFRED:Â There seems to be some level of tension there. Gotta wonder how sustainable the situation is, and if it ends in a trade at some point. Fabbri felt he was playing his best hockey -- then started getting scratched. For whatever reasons, he and Berube have never really hit it off in terms of role and playing time. Tarasenko's injury was a potential turning point. It hasn't happened.
I'm not sure Fabbri plays a physical enough style consistently enough to be one of Berube's favorites.
QUESTION:Â Can anyone explain the Jeff Albert hitting philosophy?
BENFRED:Â The best explanation I have heard or read boils down to this: Albert pushes back against the notion of a cookie-cutter approach to hitting, or one team-wide plan. Instead, he focuses on matching a player's strengths and weaknesses to an approach that works best for that individual player.
Behind that individual approach, there is said to be an emphasis on pitch recognition, decreased strikeouts and increased contact. Signs of that were hard to find this season. Signs of the Cardinals' commitment to Albert were not. They have continued to support him, and have made firings and hires based on getting the entire organization more in line with his vision.
If they don't add a bat to this lineup, and Marcell Ozuna leaves, then they are putting even more trust (and pressure) on Albert to get more out of what was a lackluster lineup in 2019.
Photo: Cardinals hitting coach Jeff Albert (left) talks with Matt Carpenter (center) and Paul Goldschmidt at spring training. Photo by Christian Gooden, cgooden@post-dispatch.com
QUESTION:Â Does the news about the planned meeting between Marcell Ozuna and the Cardinals to discuss a potential multi-year deal mean anything, or is it just going through the motions on the way to his departure through free agency?
BENFRED:Â I think it means something, yes. It means both sides are open to discussing an arrangement that is more than the terms of the one-year qualifying offer. The Cardinals in the past declined multiple chances to give Ozuna some sort of public sign they wanted him back beyond that QO. This could be interpreted as a sign.
I still remain skeptical that the Cardinals will be willing to offer Ozuna more or as much as another team, considering their ups-and-downs with him the past two seasons and their deep pool of outfield prospects. And if I'm soon-to-be 29-year-old Ozuna, I'm getting paid NOW, not betting on another big bite of the free-agency apple down the line.
QUESTION:Â Mike Shildt is a finalist for National League manager of the year, but does he have a real chance to win it?
BENFRED:Â He would have had my vote. Remember, votes were due before the postseason started -- for those wondering about Dave Martinez in Washington.
I think the turnaround Shildt led with the defense and baserunning; the team's reclaiming of the division, specifically the recapturing of the upper hand in the rivalry with the Cubs; and the fact he won 91 games despite losing players to injuries and not getting any help from outside the organization after spring training all helped make his case.
QUESTION:Â The Blues might not be the prettiest team, but they have guts, again. What have they proven in a post-Tarasenko phase?
BENFRED:Â Agreed. Hard to get too worked about faults at the moment, considering the wins and the response to the Tarasenko injury. If there was any leftover Stanley Cup happiness, that news about No. 91 seemed to clear the senses.
The Blues will probably not be a better team without Tarasenko, but they might be a team that is more determined. We'll see. I specifically like the signs of progress on the power play. That was the one issue they had to address, and the changes this offseason seem to have helped. The puck is moving again. I'm eager to see what some of the youngsters can do as the Tarasenko temporary replacement carousel turns. This run of overtime wins shows some grit. That goes a long way.
Photo: Brayden Schenn (left), Jaden Schwartz (center) and Alex Pietrangelo surround Canucks goalie Jacon Markstrom on a breakaway in Tuesday's overtime period. Schwartz fired in the game-winning goal for the Blues on the play. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press via AP)
QUESTION:Â A lot of chatter this week about the Chargers potentially relocating to either London or St. Louis. Any chance that's in play for the Lou?
BENFRED:Â Nothing to see here from the St. Louis front. I read a piece from The Athletic that mentioned the Chargers' potential interest and fit in London. It had zero mention of St. Louis. None. And Chargers owner Dean Spanos has since come out and said that report is bogus.
I'll just share what I know: There has been zero, none, zilch, nada discussion between the NFL and St. Louis about the notion of relocating the Chargers here. The only conversation between the league and the area has been in court, as part of the relocation lawsuit that is playing out.
When I tell people to forget about this Chargers stuff, it's because there is nothing to it, not just because I think the NFL is a cartel. If the NFL wants to build a stadium and plant a team here without a dime of public money, I imagine there would be enough support. But I hate to see St. Louis football fans looking silly rooting for an option that is not rooted in reality.
My advice: Stop hoping the NFL comes back. It left. It slandered the sports fans of St. Louis. Turn the page.
Photo: In an October 2010 game at the Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis Rams defensive end Chris Long sacks San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers. (Post-Dispatch photo by Chris Lee)
QUESTION: Do you think the new MLS stadium as designed (seating capacity: 22,500) is too small? If our city likes soccer as much as people claim, shouldn't the MLS stadium be as big as an NFL stadium?
BENFRED: A lot of thought was put into the size of the stadium. As attendance becomes a hot topic in all sports, from college football to baseball to NFL teams in Los Angeles, I think most are realizing it's better to have a full, fired-up stadium than one that can't be full. Nothing kills a buzz like swaths of empty seats.
Stadiums across all sports are seeking ways to make games more of an event-based feel by offering gathering areas, different attractions beyond the game, etc. Blame our Twitter-fueled, rapidly declining attention spans as much as any sport.
