I've been mentioning Allen Craig so much this season, the guy probably thinks I'm out to make him look bad, or something. Not at all. I was happy to write about Craig's "RBI Machine" exploits over the last few seasons; heck, I even upgraded him to the "RBI Factory." He's been astoundingly good in his career at driving in a high percentage of runners on base.
Craig carries such an important bat in the Cardinals lineup, and that makes his successes and failures more profound. Whether Craig is hitting well or poorly, the Cardinals will feel the impact — either way. So that's why I dwell on him. His influence is considerable.
Anyway ...
After coming on strong during the Cardinals' recent six-game homestand, it looked like Craig had calibrated his "timing" which is something we've heard a lot about from manager Mike Matheny and the team's broadcasters. This was a potentially significant development; the Cardinals would benefit from Craig's upturn.
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Alas, Craig had a quiet weekend at Wrigley Field, going 1 for 12 with three strikeouts, no walks, one GIDP. His numbers for the season are still way down: .207 average, .260 onbase percentage, .339 slugging pct.
I should also mention that Craig is 5 for 25 with runners in scoring position, but that just fits into the overall trend. Let me please add this: from 2011 through 2013 Craig batted .407 with runners in scoring position, and that's crazy. No hitter can keep that up, so a dip in Craig's RISP was inevitable. We're seeing the other side of RISP magic now.
So what's going on with Craig? What do the numbers show, if anything?
Well, there's a lot to look at. A few things jumped out at me, and I'm not sure where to start. So I'll just throw these stats at you in the order that I looked them up. Numbers are from STATS LLC unless noted otherwise:
* Craig isn't struggling to make contact. His strikeout rate is down a bit from last season, and his swing-miss rate is down by six percent. Craig isn't walking as frequently but I don't think it's a plate-discipline issue. According to FanGraphs, Craig is chasing fewer pitches out of the strike zone. This is all good, except ...
* Craig's line-drive rate is falling. According to FanGraphs it's 17 percent so far, down from last year's 27 percent. That 27 percent rate probably wasn't sustainable, but Craig did have a 23-percent LD rate in 2012.
* Craig's ground-ball rate is way, way, up. It's at 76.3 percent right now, and that's the 15th-highest GB rate by a major-league regular so far this season. And that continues a trend. Take a look at Craig's yearly ground-ball rates:
56 percent in 2011
57 percent in 2012
62.3 percent in 2013
76.3 percent in 2014
FanGraphs and STATS calculate ground-ball rate differently, and I'm not sure why there's such a discrepancy. But FanGraphs has different numbers for Craig, with a GB rate of 60 percent this year so far. But whether you prefer the STATS numbers or the FanGraphs numbers, they still show the same pattern -- a progressively higher percentage of ground balls from Craig's bat.
At some point -- due to alteration of swing, change in approach, or some physical change -- Craig started hitting a lot fewer line drives and a lot more ground balls. I don't see how that's a good development in any way. Because...
* When you hit more ground balls, your batting average will be increasingly vulnerable to the batted-ball luck factor. With four infielders plus the pitcher on the diamond, there are a lot of gloves to get in the way of those ground balls. Accordingly, with Craig rolling so many grounders this season his batting average on balls in play is a career-low .207. Craig has never hit lower than .334 in a season until now. So he's having some bad luck - but only to a point. That GB rate is so high, it seems natural to expect an unfortunate turn in batted-ball luck.
* Pitchers are working Craig over with fastballs. He's batting .179 against the pitch this season. It's particularly problematic when Craig faces RH pitchers. Take a look at Craig's batting averages against RHP fastballs by location:
.056 on high fastballs
.190 on low fastballs
.069 on inside fastballs
.176 on outside fastballs
This is glaring because up until now in his career Craig has feasted on fastballs. He batted .387 against them last season, .343 in 2012, and .328 in 2011. Is this a bat-speed issue? If so, how much? After all, as we said before, Craig's swing-miss rate is actually lower (as in better) this year. But the issue is weak contact.
I can't emphasize this one enough. Once the pitchers and their catchers and coaches pick up on a hitter's perceived weaknesses, they'll keep going after it until the hitter proves them wrong. And that's what's happening with Craig in the opening weeks of 2014.
According to STATS, pitchers have thrown fastballs to Craig on 65 percent of their offerings; that's a jump of 11 percent from 2013, and a increase of 13 percent from 2012.
And I suppose this is the battleground, so to speak. Until and unless Craig begins to make hard contact more consistently on those fastballs, the pitchers will continue to exploit the vulnerability. And if that's the case, he'll be hitting more ground balls as he tries to fight them off.
Thanks for reading ...
— Bernie
